Social Media Summary for 2023 with a Focus on Education and Entertainment-Social Commentary.

Story One: Pretty Nicole

The year that was presented some interesting challenges and insights into our country. I think that there are three or four stories that illustrate these complexities. The first story is one of a young girl who calls herself Pretty Nicole. She came to the attention of Ugandans on Twitter when someone filmed her being beaten by a ‘rival’ female who had found out that she was involved with her boy friend. Netizens shared this video and as a result a measure of justice was served to the angry young lady.  Then a flurry of events took place where Nicole was placed into a school which she promptly escaped. A few scandals about some leaked videos followed. Desperate pleas from her mother to get her back into school. She responded but what was notable was her concern about the system and her request that she join the music industry as an entertainer. The young girl is barely fourteen. But at that age you are really starting to feel like you have an effect on the world. Your bust and your curves are being noticed and you are starting to make a dent on a largely skewed male population. All things considered, you are in your prime in your teens but with little guidance. 

Many of those who have gone before you and succeeded or not with their degrees often complain about the education system and Pretty Nicole is no different. She is having trouble seeing how valuable what she is being taught is while at the same time realising that quite a number of not so educated youth are making a killing in the Entertainment Scene. 

As we speak the numbers reveal that the number of students who registered for Primary Exams has decreased drastically. So you really cannot blame her. 

Here is where social media comes in. As we speak it seems the young girl has amassed quite a following. I recently looked at her page and found that she had landed an influencer deal. Not bad for a kid who wanted to drop out. Maybe she will have a chance to finance her own education or entrance into the entertainment world. 

Story Two: Alien Skin

This young man is built different. His music has taken the country by storm. He even has the guts to take on Bobby Wine (this is a no go area just ask some famous Pastors). You see the Ghetto President as he is affectionately known has a following that does not take criticism of the principle lightly. But when someone rises to the level where they can take jabs at the GP, then you know something is cooking. In the bigger picture of the Ugandan political scene, the playbook that is being used is similar to what happened in Kenya in the late nineties and frankly to this day is the same strategy. At the height of the democratization of Kenya or some could argue from its very begining, the two party system was exploited through its leaders by creating tribal alliances and factions which later led to the blossoming of personalities and later parties galore. So the Democratic Party of Uganda, Forum for Democratic Change as well as UPC have all had some sort of split or struggle as to who serves as flag bearer with internal coup d’etats being normalized. 

Back to the music. Alien skin has emerged as a breath of fresh air for an industry that some could argue was suffering from a hernia. There was a sesne in which some of those who felt like they helped pave the way for others were feeling entitled and expecting the upcoming artists to kiss the proverbial ring and pledge allegiance. The ability to appreciate those who have come before you goes without saying but there are many ways to do that. Some have chosen to redo music done by those long gone while others have decided to use monetary gifts. All this helps. But this struggle for dominance is real and permeates the Radio Stations as well as the ecosystem of event cordinators and promoters and MCees. 

His music is different. He seems to be having a conversation with his audience and this suits his style. But there is no mistaking the fact that the young people are taking in his stuff and dancing to it. And that is all it takes really. In the bigger picture we struggled to find a universal voice or a defining tune for the country, but my guess is that we are pretty close. 

Story three: Champion Gudo

A few years ago a young boy called Fresh Boy hit the scene with his music. He made an impact and was quickly snatched by one of the leading Primary Education Institutions for a scholarship. This was about two or three years ago but it set a precedent. Ofcourse the school saw this as a marketing win but others also saw an opportunity. The young boy excelled and continued to pursue his career in music but he seemed to be guaranteed a pretty successful future. Enter Alien Skin and champion Gudo. As already described, Alien skin was making waves but as is the nature of our culture in which Kings often invited promising young people into the court to raise them as leaders, Champion Gudo was taken on to learn the ropes at least by association. There was a back and forth where many said that the young boy needed to be left alone to study while others called it a publicity stunt. If memory serves me right, the young one was offered a place in a school? What followed was interesting. Some parents shared a letter with the school’s management stating that they preferred that their children study in a safe space independent of ‘these other children’ (my words). Maybe this is really the way of our society. Classify and separate by wealth or color and manage the distribution of wealth and power by these groupings? 

What are your thoughts? 

PS these photos are taken from Social Media Accounts. 

LXB and BXL

 LXB and BXL

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The last few months have been momentous for Asia Watchers. The economist run a article in which they asked if China had lost its conscience. The piece was written in reference to Liu Xia Bo or LXB as he came to be know on social media. China and it's citizens and those who follow the scene in a heavily restrictive environment had created a set of initials to get past the world's most stable and impenetrable firewall. 

This was done after the state chose to restrict coverage of the controversial Nobel prize winner especially after his illness became , known. This activist and social commenter had become a thorn in the flesh for the ruling class with his calls to end one party rule. As is often the case, the the rebel became a darling of the west while managing to alienate himself in the site of his own leadership. 

In the meantime, another promising political voice Bo Xi Lai (BXL) presents an extreme on the other end of the spectrum for a country that needs to find its conscience. He was a party insider who Father was once part of a core group. He grew up in the system and was even seen by some to be readying for the top job. He quickly fell out of favor when some scandals emerged that were to grave to ignore. 

So where is China 's middle ground? 

This week and on another platform, two key voices were pitted against each other for their role in Modern China. The first Chang Kai Shek, the second Mao Tse Tung. 

One a champion of the revolution and therefore an advocate of the communist movements, the other an anti-communist. 

Both men tied to history and the need to preserve the status quo but both confronted by the forces of change. 

What is most interesting about the emergence of both men is that the age that proceeded after the end of Kingdoms necessitated or seems to require large chunks of time. These large periods of time both created a cult sense around these two leaders and resulted in a monarchy re-imagined. A study of china's history therefore has to be done with regards to those who gained prominence on one hand and those who fell victim to the forces of change both controlled and uncontrolled. A study of Mao Tse Tung involves as can be expected a look at his history. His relationship with his father, his peasant background, his love for literature, his exploration of the ideas that furnished the revolution in Russia, his marriages, University life and work life, role in the major systems that governed a post revolution china, ideas he presented once he came into power and then relationships with foreign nations. 

The possibility of a collapse of the union as it stands in China is still a long way away. But it is a possibility. Thinkers that watched the collapse of the soviet union have to think about those that functioned under the ideology in the past and that still cling on to it. While the new head of state is still holding the fort and for all intents and purposes trying to revive the glories of Russia sans Czar this reality is should be dealt with by Chinese thought leaders. The trouble is there is no counterbalance of forces. At the moment the state is strong and it has successfully merged its power with its extensive purse. 

Meanwhile In Uganda we are troubled why a few CEOs by passed our territories in favor of Kenya and Rwanda. Maybe God covered us with a kisubi (to cover one with grass as a protection measure). For it is going to prove increasingly difficult to split between the function of China as a government and those of China and it's influential business people. Should the business people rise as they should they might end up being on a collision course with a state that has its hands firmly on the state. 

Seem have argued that much of the development on the local scene has been good for the region especially because China has taken no meddling position. But what the Dragon has demonstrated in her territories is a thirst and hunger that is unquenchable and a willingness to use force in the acquisition of additional territory and resource. 

Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

The second debate

Yes the Election seems to be long past...and with that the much anticipated debate. So this is what we think are the highlights.

The crowning moment 

We got yet another dose of the King's poetry-and yes for him the debate was the thing. He was able to watch as the president attended the three hour do. After years in the judiciary as well as some translation work for the bible society he looked visibly exhausted but glad. He even made some mention about the possibility of overseeing another similar bout this time around 2021? 

Language matters 

Interesting to note as three prominent military men (Gen Biraro, Gen 

Yoweri Museveni and Colonel Warren Kizza Besigye) made their way onto the stage and got comfortable. One of the moderators-a lecturer at the Ivory Tower made clear what the 'rules of engagement were'. "Oh no," Said I, "that is a military term". And so in my view we said goodbye to level ground. This was going to be battle field and no one was going to take any prisoners. Events which manage to get the attention of a functioning head of state in the African Environment, can be overwhelming. Security at the Serena was also officially handed to the special forces group further sealing the fate of the participants. The Americans are a little different. The moment you begin to carry the scent of the presidency, they assign you a group of secret agents who begin to think of you in terms of the oval office-complete with code names and Black Chevy Suburbans! 

Seating arrangements 

The president was assigned a seat on the far end of the stage and was provided a buffer (Maureen Kyalya). She in a sense was tasked the responsibility of taking some heat on behalf of the president. The rest of the arrangements were pretty much the same as the first debate although this time around the empty seat was taken.

Over compensation 

The presence of the head of state was welcome by many who did not wish to see him come across as weak and fearful. His minders had made sure that most of the hostile ground was cleared. What the president therefore had was a touch of sympathy (which he used to the max). He began well with historical references a la Kyalya (in the first debate). But soon and with subsequent questions he appeared perturbed and agitated when accusations came flying in from opposition circles. He was able to take advantage of the time factor as many of the other participants had mentioned further opening the way for a format that suited his style. In the meantime there was an expression from Dr. Kizza Besigye who was now cornered into taking a more calm tone that his usual confrontational demeanor. 

Preemptive strikes 

To give the president much more leverage, his minders took what we would like to refer to as a preemptive strike. They made sure that Shaka Saali a prominent international voice in the American Media was silenced long before the debate. This they did by questioning his motives and mining through an archive of his older material to convince the president that he would not be a fair panelist. In a sense the 'drones' had done their work so that the 'ground troops would have an easier time getting those boots on the ground'. This gave the General much more leverage with the crowd. Shaka Ssali simply played it smart and just gave them what they asked for. He simply represented his brand with the words "get better not bitter" as well as his characteristic "I am deeply humbled and profoundly honored"

Late entries and local humor

Joseph Mabirizi arrived late but manage to grab the attention of the crowd by stating that the president is usually supposed to arrive late. Maureen Kyalya also mentioned her willingness to give an advisory position to the former president were she to gain access to state house. 

Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy II

CONSTITUENTS 

Perhaps the decision of one of the candidates to focus on a specific groups marks a much needed change in strategy in the broader campaign machinery. The president has greater access to several influential groups such as The Boda Boda Association, UTODA (the taxi drivers association) which has suffered much-at least with regard to influence, and to lesser extent KASITA (an association that is run by city traders). 

Meeting with a church group is therefore a step in the right direction, but the situation being as it is I suspect he will soon face some opposition. So there is a need for both the Go Forward Campaign as well as the FDC group to focus more on very specific groups as opposed to regions and the tribal groups that inhabit them. There is some evidence of this with the second day of the campaigns with promises from Kazigo to at least restore agricultural cooperatives. 

THE UNEXPECTED 

Maureen Kyalya-woman candidate is proving to be quite a surprise for the people of Busoga. She is partnering with a pastor who has had a rough patch with the police after claiming to have been kidnapped. The woman's speech is interesting and the manner in which she has been received is quite revealing. She has stated plainly that there presidency belongs to the Basoga. Her belief is that like the queue that was supposed to be used in the NRM, there is another unstated presidential queue that should be organized around tribes and that this time around should point 

East! An interesting entrance and commentary from a local man was also worth noting. He stated plainly that the Basoga would be very foolish to elect others if one of their own had made themselves available. Maybe the Baganda missed the boat when they failed to align themselves around the candidacy former FDC party-another woman who made great leaps in driving the agenda for Federo (federated governance). 

THE PASTORS

Joseph Mabirizi-not too certain if there is a link with Mabirizi Complex, also stands out because he is a man of Faith. In previous posts where we spoke about the rise of the mega pastors, his is an important development because it involves an entrance into an arena that is largely dominated by political men who often quickly prohibit religious men from walking into the governance space. This makes little sense when politicians are assigned the best seats in religious houses and in many cases given access to the podium. So Mr. Ribs is like the mouse that got away from under the grip of the captors and manages to sound the clarion call. One hopes that in the years to come his act of courage will be imitated by other men of the collar like say...Zac Niringiye who has done a lot to push for the expansion of the inclusive space and paid the price for it with blows from baton holding men. 

BROADER REGIONAL ISSUES

The elephant in the region has to do with the broader concern for Rwanda and Burundi on one hand and Tanzania on another. And the extensive influence of the Congolese. Politics in that regions has centered around the Hutu and Tutsi Conflict which has shaped the character of the people, the politicians and their prophets. In the same way in which the restoration of the nation of Israel characterized and defined modern day middle Eastern Conflict, Character and Concern we have a region that is wrapped up in military thinking and that has found itself tied up to the past with concerns about genocide and complex ethnic tensions. This means that it will become almost impossible to function effectively without the use of excessive military force and power. We already witnessed to some extent a clash between the Rwandese and the Tanzanians but much now rests in the hands of the new head of state in Tanzania and the choices he will make in relating with the sitting Rwandese leader. Tanzania because of its influence in the region (mainly attributed to the leader Mwalimu Nyerere) has had a heavy influence in the selection of leaders as well as in the removal of others. 

MASKS 

If there was a group that was uneasy about the influence of certain NRM leaders in other political parties and if there were fears regarding moles, these fears have been in some regards assuaged. Those who hitherto were enjoying the patronage of Kazigo can now support him in some regards without fear. Given the short term memory of many party adherents there should be caution in the approach towards the future. The opposition will find it easy to judge those who in their view sold out or showed weakness in sticking with the ruling party but the bigger picture as stated before points to the Resistance. If the resistance is the greatest goal, then the opposition to this should be the most noble cause given what resistance movements are supposed to be designed for. 

THE NORTH STAR

Do not take Northern Uganda for granted. So far the only thing that has prevented a greater unity has been the existence of post NRM enmities between the Acholi, the Lango and the Kakwa. But the regions has also benefitted from many reconciliation programs and the investment of NGOs in the redevelopment of the region. The people here have also had much greater engagement in the rest of the country as well as an ability to watch from the sidelines. Maybe their influence in the military has lessened but this they have had a significant portion of their populace moving and engaging and fighting for the liberation of their own people. Even if the records exist stating some measure violence, the predecessor of J.Kony, A.Lakwena was to many a prophetess and military leader whose major aim was to help restore and heal the people of the Northern Region. There was as deeper concern over the region and it's spiritual center and fears that something had gone wrong. These thoughts brought about a lot of soul searching and a desire to revive the people of Northern Uganda. 

Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy

This is how I think Its going to go down. 

In physics we call it the elastic limit. A point beyond which something can no longer stretch. The point at which it actually breaks. Maybe this is where we are. 

THE CROWDS 

Three 'notable' candidates and three sets of noticeable crowds. This is all taking place in a season of elections at a time when preparations are begin made for the years end...and there is money to be made. If there was a method of changing the manner in which we vote and the street became the ballot box, then many of these candidates would be possible front runners. This manner of force favors the activism that the forum for democratic change through K.B would have preferred. But I am certain that M.M is not convinced but he has little to do given the idea that he has to respect the decision of the delegates. M.M was more concerned about the creation of structures that can be used to cement the forum for democratic change and it's place in the grass roots. But I fear that the pull of the crowds will be too powerful a drug for the three time candidate to resist. Instead he will fight on like the Tanzanians did despite the unevenness on the ground and then when it is too late to demand a recount or too cry foul, his opponents will grab the holy book and march comfortably for another fiver. 

Do not be fooled by crowds. 

THE MESSAGE

The FDC has had one major triumph which I have written about before, it is the idea that they championed the message of change. Now change has become the anthem of the Movement as well as Kazigo's clarion call. There is little that anyone can do to overemphasize this but the FDC must strive to show that at least in this regard, the opposition has tapped into the right vein. This is the dilemma of every unknown and upcoming personality. Because of a lack of place and position all one can do is present ideas which the bigger candidates will often pick up and repackage as their own. The underdog is often too small to be perceived as a significant player and so his enthusiasm and wit are often swallowed up by those who have learned through the passage of time to take that which is good and use it for their own benefit. 

The message is change. 

THE VOTER

If I was to find the genuine voter, I have to go to the smallest candidate in the most rural part of Uganda. I would have to interact with the smallest crowd where there is the least amount of fanfare and the least amount of cash. Part of the problem of the crowd is the problem that our vast population seems to be suffer from. The lack of jobs. It would be a very different scenario if for example the candidates were forced to visit farms where large swathes of their citizens were busy, say harvesting subsistence crops for the season or taking advantage of the rains (which are in plenty) but alas they are making quick cash and claiming to need assistance in restoring agriculture. What if for example they chose to visit industries that they themselves have established over the years. Chances are there would be no now to meet them there for a genuine conversation about how the candidature of the politician would affect their employment opportunities.

The true voter is not going to show up. 

THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

The observers are not going to show up until D-day. Which means that they are placing their Stamp of approval on a single day and claiming that it represents a whole process. This is wrong and needs to be rectified. The electoral process is what the black hole is to the universe. A lot of energy that potentially sucks everything else in. The electoral process not just election day are both one and the same machine. It has become Uganda's largest income generator and job creator. Even if no one budgets for it, we have plenty of groups that are willing to invest in it. This is not unique to us region but it has the potential of being much more destructive because we do not have as strong a base in other aspects of our economy. 

Observation should start much earlier. 

IDEOLOGY

The problem with the communism as an ideology is that in this region it sought to destroy and remove anything that had a semblance to royalty and structure and hierarchy. Even if in some regards there was an attempt (later on) to restore the monarchies in several regions, this was little more than windows dressing and the realization that in these parts culture was much too ingrained in our psyche to replace. We are often unable to gauge the effects of these changes because those who we force out are often too far removed from the new changes and voiceless in defense of their kingdoms. The new generals and change makers on the other hand then have to contend with leadership dynamics that force them to operate in a manner not too different from those they have so vehemently opposed. The monarchies fear that they are powerless to defend their people against the might of the invaders, this plays right into the hands of their foes who by now have recruited enough locals into their armed forces. Soon they are receiving medals and honors from foreign forces and wining and dining in camouflages and international capitals. 

This is essentially a politically active and living space...nurture it. 

THE CONCERN

I have not seen a larger gathering of German Made vehicles in a very long time. Old school combies, beetles and yes even the famous 

Bavarian. Kindly forgive me if I express concern and surprise about how intimately the Resistance Movement has become with a German Brand. I do accept the possibility that there are certain rights that the man who wins the war has to history (in writing it and in shaping its character), but we are not accustomed to viewing mainstream German ideas and brands with Resistance! This is why if history is also false in this regard, the resistance movement cannot afford to split and splinter in the manner in which it has in the last few decades. 

Revisit the resistance space. 

REGIONAL GRIEVANCES

We were told that when push comes to shove, fearful voters will tend to congregate and aggregate along tribal lines. Two regions ok three have remained largely untouched and underdeveloped in the last few years. Busoga, Iteso and greater northern Uganda. One has to commend the government for ministries that were established to attempt to direct more attention to these regions. But it is clear that a decent number of people associate leadership with visibility in the top political space. Busoga has remained nostalgic given some of the massive developments that were seen prior to the drive towards independence. In an attempt to revive the economy, government requested the return of the Asians who in a large part were said to have been part of this development. The question is how far back would you go? Would you also invite the British and undo the work of independence movement? Is there nothing redemptive in Idi Amin's leadership and his move to place Africans at the core of Ugandan Business? 

Act locally. 

Trouble in Camp Resistance

When we last had this discussion there was a lot of buzz in the media regarding two bulls in the proverbial kraal. The NTV news (part of the nation media group) had some award winning images where the Big Hat and the Kazigo were caught avoiding each other's gazes. Later on, much of this got a little exhausting with each trying to out do the other. 

From sources in our distinguished press as well as other groups, I chose to create a summary of my own of what I view as some key areas. I called it the battle for the western front because many of us are rather uncomfortable with yet another shift in the western region. We may welcome a change in power but in a frighteningly sectarian and tribal  region we wanted to see say a Karamoja or an Iteso rise. Like the Kenyans we were glad to see the throne return to son of the Father of the Nation but we were also itching to see what kind of difference say a Kamba, Luo, Luhya would make. 

King Makers (international).

We were curious why certain people chose to visit the U.K and why certain media houses were keen to have interviews with the top contenders (British Broadcasting Cooperation as well as Chatham 

House). What they were communicating is that there were certain circles which one had to be familiar with internationally, in order to gain any kind of access to power (all things remaining constant). 

Kings Makers (local).

Locally we identified churches (for both Catholics and Christians) as well as Muslims. The battle for these groups was bound to be much more muddy and so the simpler problem was to find access to the top which led our local leaders directly to the Holy See, to Canterbury and to the Saudis (the debate about how much Muslim power lies here is still on the table). 

Our friends who fondly refer to themselves as primates have certain challenges regarding ordination of Women as well as the controversial question of Human sexuality. But the reigns of power are still intact and 

England at least for now is still going to remain firm in its place. 

Military and police force versus sheer intelligence.

Based on what the local experts told us were saw a battle that would be fought in a characteristic manner by Big Hat. The military and it's arms would prove significant and the police too. We have no doubt that the presence of the military in parliament as well as in the Internal Affairs and the police (both headed by military men) would prove pivotal in the battle for kraal. Meanwhile Kazigo would have to refer to his expertise in the intelligence which we are told he headed for quite a while. 

The trouble with the intelligence battle for Uganda was that both Kazigo and Mr. No Regrets were both intelligence men and their decision to air out our security laundry was both unprofessional and unpatriotic (and we dare say treasonable). I am almost certain that they had their Israeli and 

Russian trainers shaking in the boots and sad to see what these students of theirs we're doing with their training. 

The foul dream of Youth 

While trouble was brewing in the resistance camp, we began to see some hope in the youth. This did not last long. Soon the hope for the future were back on the streets doing tasks that were meant for Lumpen Proletariats. Fluidity is great but a strange question would involve what kind of changes will take place if your class of schooled young people find themselves displaced from their institutions (where they are tasked with helping create policy) in preference for rowdy and often violent appearances in the streets. 

And so it became rather evident that none of these young people saw themselves as leaders but were still keen to do the task of politicking on behalf of old men. 

Borrowing from the U.S election.

We also began to see a time when our statisticians would team up with techies as was done in 2008 to take advantage of regional complexities. What would Uganda's Iowa be? What part of Uganda would represent the bible belt? Would be have swing regions (states) where would our Florida be? And so for the first time in quite a while, we were able to have some kind of census. We were also able to see the age in which the mobile phone and the number became the identity of the user. We worked slowly (with the help of a German company) towards a registration exercise. Those of us who were bound by our laws struggled through the process while those who have grown accustomed to living below the radar simply played along and questioned the legitimacy of this process. 

If people used the data well, then they would be able to predict the outcomes of an election way before any voting took place. 

It might get nasty. 

Even as we watch the progress taking place in the U.S we can see how less money will be spent on negative campaign ads. As things stand, the potential nominees are busy slinging stuff at themselves. No need to pay someone else to do that for you. The back and forth is quite entertaining. Also good to know that our billionaire buddy is an equal opportunity slinger and has not stopped at POTUS. And so we also foresee a nasty information battle that will cause the rise of the tabloids and and if played right will bring about a resignation. The only way you can win an intelligence battle is with dirt. 

New Power Centres or simply old latent ones?

Its been a few months now since a trip to the Vatican by Big Hat.

We are wondering what this means in the bigger political picture. Some of our initial thoughts a centred on the place of Religion in Politics and we are certain, across the board that the evidence supporting this abounds.  In the Kingdom of Buganda for example, there are a few major branches of power all in a battle for competition or at least attention for the ear of the King. In an almost cyclical manner, we seem to find ourselves in the late 1800s negotiating deals with prominent monarchs while cutting corners and bending the rules with their prime ministers. The protestants are here and this time around have a hill and provinces from which they can exercise their power, and so do the catholics and Muslims. Not only do these groups have  hold on religion, they also have foot in the health system. The hills are places of worship but next to these places of worship we can also find major hospitals whose task it seems is to furnish the adherents with pills and portions.     

The only unrecognized but still widely influential house of worship belongs to local religious groups or Basamize (worship focuses on shrines and ancient practices with an emphasis on cultural heroes).  This group is responsible for major activities regarding the Kingdom and claims quite a prominent place in history.  This group capitalizes on the African...and his fear of the unknown...and his tendency towards all things religious or spiritual.

So any attempts from politicians towards any single one of these groups makes some sense in the search for followers.

The fourth Estate has also emerged as a player in the bigger picture but the dawn of Social Media has complicated the task. What we find is that there is a flood of information and very few with the skills to figure out what to treasure and what to trash. And so there is a steady movement from clip to clip and from story to story in an uncoordinated frenzy for information and the possibility of a master story teller or spinner for that matter sitting by and giggling and morsels of truth are scattered before the teeming masses of hungry citizens.

The strange constant in all of this though, is entertainment with its ability to churn out celebrities in all sorts of fields keeping us glued, active and wishing on stars in a hapless sky.

The independence of media has also proved to be quite a challenge because those with prominence and ash have managed to consolidate all the major and influential sources of information into their own hands.

And so we stand at the foot of the mountain waiting for the prophet to return.

While there has been activity in other power centers too, the protestant movement has suffered a hemorrhage of sorts as it has attempted to deal with two major issues. The Ordination of Women and the question of Homo Sexuality. This has caused some to venture back to the mother church and even resulted in the birth of some major rifts in Anglo-Afro church relations.

On a local level much of the activity towards the protestant center has been internal in scope. In politically active areas the choice of new leaders has had the uncomfortable feeling of a political rally and not a congregation in search of a shepherd.

The broader reality of the day has meant that a house divided cannot stand and this has proven effective in Islam (in the Ugandan context and in the greater or broader view).  

Even if on the surface the battle seems to have been around Issues, at heart it has also been on resources (which are often the backdrop of much greater conflicts). Two major groups have therefore emerged wrestling for recognition and space. To expect a quick resolution for age old conflicts is ludicrous. The politician's biggest question is how to capitalize and court both groups with minimum risk to oneself...or on other cases how to further divide groups if that suits your ultimate end.   

Milking the masses

It's been a few days since the Kenyans pulled off a coup d'tat at the Hague. A triumphal entry similar to the one that had taken place only a few days prior (in Uganda) then followed in which a sizable group of Kenyans met the head of state as he arrived back into the country. 

As the Ugandan media was trying to deal with an apparent rift between two major players in the so called resistance movement (so called because the history of resistance movement in my view is often fraught with much less pomp and circumstance-which is why it is probably preferable to refer to it as a revolutionary movement). 

Those with a keener eye and better memory referred to the return of the Colonel...to Uganda which back in the day was met with a mammoth crowd as well as that of popular TV personality who had made a name for himself in a season of Big Brother. 

Even if some called this an amazing feat of mobilization, there is great risk of placing Big Hat under the same category as his former Colonel and the Big Brother Star. Apart from the free fuel...and the chance to see a star or two, we can speak of a power vacuum that existed and that necessitated an absence of one leader for a certain aspect of the rift to be dealt with. 

It is important to note that we are now speaking of a broader East African Politic in which different parts of the opposition and civil society are making use of each others creativity by acts of replication.

And so the triumphal march of one is imitated by another (politics) and the use of hogs in parliament, and coffins (Kenya) is dubbed by another (civil society in Uganda). The force with which both protests are met is matched as the enforcement arm of the judiciary responds with rapidity and continues to spend millions towards equipment. 

In an interview or appearance on the radio, TMJ or the man some of you choose to refer to as motor mouth, makes a reference to the value of what I call the emotions of the masses. In this reference he is basically saying that it serves you well to milk the masses of their mercy especially when you find yourself in trouble. 

This is what some experts refer to in the ICC case...at least in reference to the head of state. It is a little too late to apply the same to our counterparts in Khartoum and would prove rather risky for him to attempt to pull this off. 

We are now left to wonder if the right decisions have been made. A long prison sentence is bearable in as far as it allows you to live to fight another day (albeit behind bars). I do not see the international criminal court assenting to hanging as a means of justice but these are possibilities in many of our countries and that is if natural African justice is not allowed to come into play. 

None of the our major players have been in power long enough to claim the right to a collapse of their nations a la Libya, Egypt and Iraq. 

Put this together and I see a rise in Radicalization of the youth. You can only watch for so long before you become affected by what you see and act on it. At the core of this group will be the Fourth Estate and an exhausted civil society. 

You can see aspects of this in Uganda whose opposition has played it cool for long but is beginning to experience an exhaustion. 

The youth will begin to realize that they do it stand a chance against the machinery of the state and a manipulated legislative and judicial arm. 

In some regards you will find a nameless faceless group with absolutely no links to power and it's trapping but with a realization that they have a stake in the governance of their nations. I they are unable to force their governments into exhaustion but their demands and drive the bureaucracy to a halt. They will begin to think about creative ways to turn their plowshares into swords. This is as we all know a largely agrarian economy.

Katebe or Kakumbi

A popular writer in these parts, has written extensively on the role of the military in Ugandan politics. In his writings, he examines how the government in Uganda handles veterans and how those in military service chose to live their lives in retirement. One of the ideas he often plays around with is what we often refer to as Katebe. Recent development have created what I have referred to as a Kakumbi in which men in uniform are now assigned to manage farms. 

Katebe or Kakumbi?

This week there were reports from the BBC regarding the trials of two octogenarians whose lives, histories and actions have come to the fore as Cambodia attempts to deal with some troubling aspects in her history. 

While it is may be clear that these two individuals are just a mere representation of the leadership that was described as part of the problem, analysts still insist that the attempts to deal with this nations history are still quite significant and necessary. 

This story matters because in Uganda, there are some historic records that speak of a rebellion of sorts and the rise of a similar revolutionary movements.  Most of the movements that emerged from Africa used South American nations like Cuba as examples in their struggles and borrowed heavily from writings of men such as Che Guevera. In addition to this though, we find that a group of these countries also used strategies from within Africa as they moved to help liberate their countries. In Uganda for example countries like Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Angola were studied and taught in School in an effort to educate the younger populations on the unique nature of the struggle for independence and later or possibly liberation. There are writers who to this day dispute the reality behind the independence move and instead like to think of it as a handover with intent to govern from a distance. But that is really beyond the scope of this article. Instead I need to highlight a small aspect of the Cambodian struggle and it's relevance in our Context here. 

We have recently made some strategic moves towards a more aggressive  agrarian push. After some struggle implementing certain presidential initiatives like the NAADS, the government has made the choice to use its military men to help monitor and run its drive towards agricultural development. 

Perhaps this makes sense for a government that has strong leanings towards the military. A word of caution though and a special reference to the Khamer Rouge. 

We have similar nomenclature in the assignment of titles and names for the liberators (001,002,003 and so on). This incidentally is the same usage that the people in Cambodia used for their leaders. 

In addition to this, we are pushing for a drive towards agriculture. 

Too simplistic? Maybe! But there is a corresponding drive and loathing amongst some towards the village life. Even if many seem to have developed the ability to handle life on both sides. Making visits to the rural areas when the seasons permit, there is still very little that people see on that front. The discovery of minerals and other natural resources has helped but challenges arising from leadership and structure and especially the delicate relationship between cultural leaders and the central government will continue to cause headaches. 

Another possible challenge is regards the pace at which technology is beginning adopted and the possibilities that exist in industry.