Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy

This is how I think Its going to go down. 

In physics we call it the elastic limit. A point beyond which something can no longer stretch. The point at which it actually breaks. Maybe this is where we are. 

THE CROWDS 

Three 'notable' candidates and three sets of noticeable crowds. This is all taking place in a season of elections at a time when preparations are begin made for the years end...and there is money to be made. If there was a method of changing the manner in which we vote and the street became the ballot box, then many of these candidates would be possible front runners. This manner of force favors the activism that the forum for democratic change through K.B would have preferred. But I am certain that M.M is not convinced but he has little to do given the idea that he has to respect the decision of the delegates. M.M was more concerned about the creation of structures that can be used to cement the forum for democratic change and it's place in the grass roots. But I fear that the pull of the crowds will be too powerful a drug for the three time candidate to resist. Instead he will fight on like the Tanzanians did despite the unevenness on the ground and then when it is too late to demand a recount or too cry foul, his opponents will grab the holy book and march comfortably for another fiver. 

Do not be fooled by crowds. 

THE MESSAGE

The FDC has had one major triumph which I have written about before, it is the idea that they championed the message of change. Now change has become the anthem of the Movement as well as Kazigo's clarion call. There is little that anyone can do to overemphasize this but the FDC must strive to show that at least in this regard, the opposition has tapped into the right vein. This is the dilemma of every unknown and upcoming personality. Because of a lack of place and position all one can do is present ideas which the bigger candidates will often pick up and repackage as their own. The underdog is often too small to be perceived as a significant player and so his enthusiasm and wit are often swallowed up by those who have learned through the passage of time to take that which is good and use it for their own benefit. 

The message is change. 

THE VOTER

If I was to find the genuine voter, I have to go to the smallest candidate in the most rural part of Uganda. I would have to interact with the smallest crowd where there is the least amount of fanfare and the least amount of cash. Part of the problem of the crowd is the problem that our vast population seems to be suffer from. The lack of jobs. It would be a very different scenario if for example the candidates were forced to visit farms where large swathes of their citizens were busy, say harvesting subsistence crops for the season or taking advantage of the rains (which are in plenty) but alas they are making quick cash and claiming to need assistance in restoring agriculture. What if for example they chose to visit industries that they themselves have established over the years. Chances are there would be no now to meet them there for a genuine conversation about how the candidature of the politician would affect their employment opportunities.

The true voter is not going to show up. 

THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

The observers are not going to show up until D-day. Which means that they are placing their Stamp of approval on a single day and claiming that it represents a whole process. This is wrong and needs to be rectified. The electoral process is what the black hole is to the universe. A lot of energy that potentially sucks everything else in. The electoral process not just election day are both one and the same machine. It has become Uganda's largest income generator and job creator. Even if no one budgets for it, we have plenty of groups that are willing to invest in it. This is not unique to us region but it has the potential of being much more destructive because we do not have as strong a base in other aspects of our economy. 

Observation should start much earlier. 

IDEOLOGY

The problem with the communism as an ideology is that in this region it sought to destroy and remove anything that had a semblance to royalty and structure and hierarchy. Even if in some regards there was an attempt (later on) to restore the monarchies in several regions, this was little more than windows dressing and the realization that in these parts culture was much too ingrained in our psyche to replace. We are often unable to gauge the effects of these changes because those who we force out are often too far removed from the new changes and voiceless in defense of their kingdoms. The new generals and change makers on the other hand then have to contend with leadership dynamics that force them to operate in a manner not too different from those they have so vehemently opposed. The monarchies fear that they are powerless to defend their people against the might of the invaders, this plays right into the hands of their foes who by now have recruited enough locals into their armed forces. Soon they are receiving medals and honors from foreign forces and wining and dining in camouflages and international capitals. 

This is essentially a politically active and living space...nurture it. 

THE CONCERN

I have not seen a larger gathering of German Made vehicles in a very long time. Old school combies, beetles and yes even the famous 

Bavarian. Kindly forgive me if I express concern and surprise about how intimately the Resistance Movement has become with a German Brand. I do accept the possibility that there are certain rights that the man who wins the war has to history (in writing it and in shaping its character), but we are not accustomed to viewing mainstream German ideas and brands with Resistance! This is why if history is also false in this regard, the resistance movement cannot afford to split and splinter in the manner in which it has in the last few decades. 

Revisit the resistance space. 

REGIONAL GRIEVANCES

We were told that when push comes to shove, fearful voters will tend to congregate and aggregate along tribal lines. Two regions ok three have remained largely untouched and underdeveloped in the last few years. Busoga, Iteso and greater northern Uganda. One has to commend the government for ministries that were established to attempt to direct more attention to these regions. But it is clear that a decent number of people associate leadership with visibility in the top political space. Busoga has remained nostalgic given some of the massive developments that were seen prior to the drive towards independence. In an attempt to revive the economy, government requested the return of the Asians who in a large part were said to have been part of this development. The question is how far back would you go? Would you also invite the British and undo the work of independence movement? Is there nothing redemptive in Idi Amin's leadership and his move to place Africans at the core of Ugandan Business? 

Act locally. 

2014 the year in review.

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There are some who view the world we live in as being rather linear and continuous. I think it is much more complex and has a rather cyclical manner in which it seems to revolve. As such you will find repetitiveness in  certain events which you think you have seen happen before. What you might realize is that there are really no prophets just analysts with a pure and working knowledge of history and a very clear picture about human nature. Maybe there is some truth about what the writer once said we he noted, "...He has placed eternity in the hearts of men...". It could be that this unique feature gives us the ability to walk to and fro across time merging past and present and future in a complex mix without much difficulty. 

So based in this idea instead of leaving 2014 behind, I will attempt to find some unique features that stood out and defined this year with the hope that they might shed some light into the year to come. 

Incidentally they all seem to have the letter P.

1. Prime Ministers

We saw and realized the value of the prime ministers office and to some extent watched at least in these parts a clipping of wings. Reports in the press if they are to be believed spoke about challenges in this office from Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda. In Uganda's case, I argue that we really have had a struggle moving from the challenges we faced in the sixties when there was a reported clash between the Ganda King and his Langi Prime minister. We normally have very different manifestations of the power struggle between president and prime minister because of the amount of sway that the prime minister holds over his respective ministers. Weak or inflexible constitutions do not allow much room for take overs but we saw how easily threatening much of these issues can be. 

2. Permanent Secretaries

We also watched as a few rising stars emerged from the civil service. They were stars mainly because of their respective offices and their working knowledge of the system as it stands. This also makes them vulnerable and the list of past casualties is endless. Ministries that were recognized as valuable and potentially large in terms of their attractiveness to donors therefore attracted more attention and drew super star secretaries. We see and will probably see more of characters like Muhakinizi and Bigirimana. 

3. Pastors 

We also after a lot of time began to see the rise of pastors and shepherds as they are referred to here as key contact people. It is no wonder that the great book chose to place these men at the centre of the debate and arrival of the historical messiah. What better group of people than a group devoted to livestock. Bound to protect living creatures under the cover of the sky. Strange too that it is with this group or to this group that heavenly beings chose to present certain aspects of their message. Maybe it is because they represent or are descendants of Abel whose historical clash with his hoe yielding brother Cain are part of the rivalries we continue to see. The battle for lands and the nature of sacrifice.

All that and the realization that for his bed our messiah chose a menger instead. 

4. Petroleum

A self-fulfilling prophecy? After so much excitement about alternative means of energy we finally have a result and we are frustrated!

The price of oil seems to be plummeting and those who were championing the rise of alternative fuels seem to be caught off guard. I this not what you wanted and were planning for?

Have we become a collective group of seers whose mighty predictions are too much for them to deal with?

Where are the champions of solar energy, hydro power, wind energy farms and gas?

5. Propaganda

Some of us have found it difficult appreciating the dawn of the information age. It is possible even under these circumstances to argue that there has always been an information age. In all of this though, it has emerged that those who have claimed a right to certain bits of information and those who have managed to claim a right over the ownership and right to that information have duped the rest of us into giving them quite a lot of authority. We no longer feel educated without their degrees or and approval. We ow invest vast amounts of energy, money and time in getting educated. Naturally this has resulted in the need of greater and control and manipulation of information and This is a trend we will continue to see. 

6. Parasites and pests

We also saw the emergence of the small over the big. The rise of creatures to small to see but powerful enough to exert their influence and cause massive devastation. We faltered and wavered at what to call the new force or power that confronted us but it seems to represent a new form of biological warfare which makes use of microorganisms. We realized a strange balance in power which brought our country to the fore in a fight against a frightening disease and placed our experts right smack dab in the middle of the fight. Unrelated battles regarding intellectual property and the defense of trade (which have defined developed and underdeveloped world relations) could hinge of how we exercise our hold on this latest battle. 

7. Populations 

We were finally able to come up with some figures. We had debated about the rationality of the head count and even asked for special permission to include our cattle (a taboo in these parts where the cow is more sacred than the child). We will continue to see he the numbers which we control will continue to define how well placed we are in the fight for prominence, position and power. We like the Chinese might find ourselves resorting to iron fists which will gradually give way when we have learned how to harness the power of our markets. 

8. Proxies

Not only in the sense of wars but epic religious battles fought by and large by people who bear names that are not there own. Here we saw and will continue to see a clash between religions until the forces behind these religions will come to the fore. I spoke about a revival of tribal beliefs which have suffered the fate of all things primitive. In these parts we will see a return to tradition and naming systems which have existed since time past. 

New Power Centres or simply old latent ones?

Its been a few months now since a trip to the Vatican by Big Hat.

We are wondering what this means in the bigger political picture. Some of our initial thoughts a centred on the place of Religion in Politics and we are certain, across the board that the evidence supporting this abounds.  In the Kingdom of Buganda for example, there are a few major branches of power all in a battle for competition or at least attention for the ear of the King. In an almost cyclical manner, we seem to find ourselves in the late 1800s negotiating deals with prominent monarchs while cutting corners and bending the rules with their prime ministers. The protestants are here and this time around have a hill and provinces from which they can exercise their power, and so do the catholics and Muslims. Not only do these groups have  hold on religion, they also have foot in the health system. The hills are places of worship but next to these places of worship we can also find major hospitals whose task it seems is to furnish the adherents with pills and portions.     

The only unrecognized but still widely influential house of worship belongs to local religious groups or Basamize (worship focuses on shrines and ancient practices with an emphasis on cultural heroes).  This group is responsible for major activities regarding the Kingdom and claims quite a prominent place in history.  This group capitalizes on the African...and his fear of the unknown...and his tendency towards all things religious or spiritual.

So any attempts from politicians towards any single one of these groups makes some sense in the search for followers.

The fourth Estate has also emerged as a player in the bigger picture but the dawn of Social Media has complicated the task. What we find is that there is a flood of information and very few with the skills to figure out what to treasure and what to trash. And so there is a steady movement from clip to clip and from story to story in an uncoordinated frenzy for information and the possibility of a master story teller or spinner for that matter sitting by and giggling and morsels of truth are scattered before the teeming masses of hungry citizens.

The strange constant in all of this though, is entertainment with its ability to churn out celebrities in all sorts of fields keeping us glued, active and wishing on stars in a hapless sky.

The independence of media has also proved to be quite a challenge because those with prominence and ash have managed to consolidate all the major and influential sources of information into their own hands.

And so we stand at the foot of the mountain waiting for the prophet to return.

While there has been activity in other power centers too, the protestant movement has suffered a hemorrhage of sorts as it has attempted to deal with two major issues. The Ordination of Women and the question of Homo Sexuality. This has caused some to venture back to the mother church and even resulted in the birth of some major rifts in Anglo-Afro church relations.

On a local level much of the activity towards the protestant center has been internal in scope. In politically active areas the choice of new leaders has had the uncomfortable feeling of a political rally and not a congregation in search of a shepherd.

The broader reality of the day has meant that a house divided cannot stand and this has proven effective in Islam (in the Ugandan context and in the greater or broader view).  

Even if on the surface the battle seems to have been around Issues, at heart it has also been on resources (which are often the backdrop of much greater conflicts). Two major groups have therefore emerged wrestling for recognition and space. To expect a quick resolution for age old conflicts is ludicrous. The politician's biggest question is how to capitalize and court both groups with minimum risk to oneself...or on other cases how to further divide groups if that suits your ultimate end.   

Machiavelli On Crime and Politics

In this previous post we had a synopsis with a list of several personalities that were used in the structure of the book and my corresponding projections of the key characteristics or thoughts that they demonstrate on leadership.

http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-return-of-machiavelli-politics-of.html

There are two of importance which fall under the category of crime but which must be separated on the role that crime plays in politics.

1. The use of political control using crime.
5. The use of political power through crime.

The first and fifth points are both about crime but need to be separated. The first involves the rise or creation of political space despite crime. As in the case of Scripture, the realization that poverty is always going to be part of life and the need therefore to live despite this ("the poor you will always have with you!"). The second refers to a marriage between crime and politics and the possible creation of counter cultures to exist alongside systems that are perceived as flawed.

In the former the politician taps into the need for security in his populace and promises to make the city safe for them as a result. While he seems genuine in his intentions, what varies is the degree of crime and the level at which the Judiciary can be utilized or manipulated to suit his needs. He controls the system while being a part of it. He has learned the language and the rhetoric that goes with governance.

The latter does the same except because he is not part of the system. He uses crime to manipulate the system and to extract monies in exchange for safety. Because his system is flawed he manages to create business which can be used to create parallel economies and which can keep loyalties within the system. As a result he can promise results and pull back his troops at the same time. Certain frustrations in some countries where guilty men are set free and examples of the latter where the politician is inseparable for a crime ridden system. A key characteristic of these systems is a rise in Mob Justice.

A police force has database and a list of felons and their finger prints. Once a crime is committed they simply access this database for possible culprits. Once in while, certain national needs will arise which will require certain citizens with certain 'skills' and the likelihood of pardons. The question whether rehabilitation really takes place and if change is really possible then arises.