Lessons from the African Union Race.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The results are out and from the look of things the Kenyan Candidate Amina Mohammed is not pleased. She has chosen language similar to what American representative to the U.N chose when she cautioned 'allies and foes' alike against taking positions against the U.S saying, "we will be taking notes" or in the case of Amina making references to broken promises (directed at a Ugandan neighbor who did not play ball).
The race for the top position for the AU, was complex and convoluted. From Uganda we presented Specioza Wandera. She was the first Female Vice president. Uganda has done a lot for inclusion and much of this work has been replicated by governments throughout the continent reflecting this response in the composition of their respective parliaments. S. Wandera did not appear to enjoy a large support base when her intention to run for the AU position was revealed. Much later and after quite a lot of push back from some locals and social media she was edged her on and even managed to persuade the government to foot the bill for her bid. Uganda probably borrowed heavily (in terms of ideas) from the Keyans who were rallying behind their pick. But in hind sight it seems as though both countries had ignored the the warning signs. It appears the AU uses a model similar to what is used in Nigeria. The rotation between North and South or Muslim and Christian which determines who rules. If that is applied in this context after the decision of Ndlamini not to renew her term, then it makes sense that the next leader for the AU would have to emerge from the Northern African states (after a reign from a leader from South Africa). That and the other unmentioned idea of gender? But Suggesting that is bound to ruffle a few feathers. We are also not certain why Mrs. Ndlamini Zuma did not seek a second term. The second question has to do with the vastness of the continent and the need for lobbying and the amounts of cash that were splurged into an exercise which as we have hinted was almost already lost given the facts on the ground. The fallout is interesting because the votes are cast by heads of state whose control and leverage rests entirely in the regions of their origin and the influence these respective blocs hold over the governance of the massive continent. So Ms. Amina's veiled attack falls squarely into the lap of the Ugandan president. This also exposes possible political underpinnings that direct seemingly unrelated events and that work internally (within countries ) and externally (within regions). This is a continent that can hold North America and
India and Europe with some space left for others. So governance as it stands now would depend heavily on these blocs which also tend to overlap memberships. What was interesting to watch is how these groups and their influence affected the likelihood of elections for the AU leaders. Also one could almost see a future when say the dreams of a Nkuruma came to pass and all roads were leading to a presidency of Africa. Would we learn any lessons form this race and how well would our leaders perform were they placed against each other. This was strange because the regional stalwarts were instead of standing for these posts themselves were sending their foreign ministers. Notable regions of strength were ECOWAS especially after we saw demonstrated their abilities to harness military strength. But also in the North, Chad probably benefited from previous experience in military matters having managed quite a number of conflicts from Libya, to Egypt, to Tunisia and Sudan. Are we therefore going to see a decreased influence from the Southern parts of Africa? Will be see a shift up North? Is it as some have observed really just a line between English speaking Africa and Francofone Africa? Maybe the African states are beginning to push back against perceived corruption and disdain for constitutions visible both in Eastern Africa and Southern Africa? Successive governments are going to need to find ways of entrenching themselves in power perhaps by use of business or other institutions directly or otherwise through additional methods of influence. Or are there much more complex dynamics. We leave that to you.

Regional cooperation and freedoms?

Wondering about the implications of regional cooperation on freedoms in general.

I wrote all of this because as I have mentioned before, there seems to be a replication of ideas in this region by NGOs, Opposition Parties as well as Civil Society Groups. In one of the article I mentioned how Strikes of medical personnel and teachers in Uganda, were being replicated by colleagues in Kenya and Tanzania. I also mentioned how advocacy campaigns by local opposition groups were also finding their way into certain sections of Tanzania (Activists for Change-A4C). Government too was in on the game and had began to introduce complex and costly legislative rules that would make it harder for journalists especially those with an investigative lens to challenge leaders (Kenya). In addition to this back in the home space I also found that a law had been introduced that was designed to make it hard of large gatherings to occur and at least give the government a head start in nipping in the bud any attempts to opposition groups to achieve momentum (public order management bill). 

While these occurrences took place quite a while back, we had a visit from BHO. Soon after that another left handed head of state showed up. His trip was interesting because he addressed parliament and met some important business leaders. But he also took a few jabs at the Opposition. 

His position back at home is complex and he is running government with a coalition (predominantly tribal in nature feeding off of Kenya's strange tendency to coagulate around its regional and language groups). 

In what I have referred to as schizophrenic-like foreign policy responses that pit one branch of government against another, we had no mention of the "choices have consequences" message of the assistant to the secretary of state for African Affairs J.C. 

Instead lawns were mowed and lectures were delivered to African Presidents.

But it was good to see that our man could hold his own against the great eagle and the star spangled banner (nothing against either). And as I have stated in another tweet, it was also good to see the younger man being affirmed by Kenya's second president (a trained teacher) as well as the country's third (an accomplished Economist). 

I was not certain what to make of the message delivered to the Uganda's Opposition. My concern was that the little space that was left was shrinking and that any hope of receiving assistance from Neighboring countries was suddenly vanishing. If this works against the Opposition for now, it will work against the leaders in the future. Because markets are designed around safety the time will come (if the pan African dream is realized) when the presidents will find themselves demoted to senators and their nations to states as the African Union takes shape merging the vast size and potential of our economies with some form of government. The question is where will we place our capital. 

Over to you!

2014 the year in review.

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There are some who view the world we live in as being rather linear and continuous. I think it is much more complex and has a rather cyclical manner in which it seems to revolve. As such you will find repetitiveness in  certain events which you think you have seen happen before. What you might realize is that there are really no prophets just analysts with a pure and working knowledge of history and a very clear picture about human nature. Maybe there is some truth about what the writer once said we he noted, "...He has placed eternity in the hearts of men...". It could be that this unique feature gives us the ability to walk to and fro across time merging past and present and future in a complex mix without much difficulty. 

So based in this idea instead of leaving 2014 behind, I will attempt to find some unique features that stood out and defined this year with the hope that they might shed some light into the year to come. 

Incidentally they all seem to have the letter P.

1. Prime Ministers

We saw and realized the value of the prime ministers office and to some extent watched at least in these parts a clipping of wings. Reports in the press if they are to be believed spoke about challenges in this office from Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda. In Uganda's case, I argue that we really have had a struggle moving from the challenges we faced in the sixties when there was a reported clash between the Ganda King and his Langi Prime minister. We normally have very different manifestations of the power struggle between president and prime minister because of the amount of sway that the prime minister holds over his respective ministers. Weak or inflexible constitutions do not allow much room for take overs but we saw how easily threatening much of these issues can be. 

2. Permanent Secretaries

We also watched as a few rising stars emerged from the civil service. They were stars mainly because of their respective offices and their working knowledge of the system as it stands. This also makes them vulnerable and the list of past casualties is endless. Ministries that were recognized as valuable and potentially large in terms of their attractiveness to donors therefore attracted more attention and drew super star secretaries. We see and will probably see more of characters like Muhakinizi and Bigirimana. 

3. Pastors 

We also after a lot of time began to see the rise of pastors and shepherds as they are referred to here as key contact people. It is no wonder that the great book chose to place these men at the centre of the debate and arrival of the historical messiah. What better group of people than a group devoted to livestock. Bound to protect living creatures under the cover of the sky. Strange too that it is with this group or to this group that heavenly beings chose to present certain aspects of their message. Maybe it is because they represent or are descendants of Abel whose historical clash with his hoe yielding brother Cain are part of the rivalries we continue to see. The battle for lands and the nature of sacrifice.

All that and the realization that for his bed our messiah chose a menger instead. 

4. Petroleum

A self-fulfilling prophecy? After so much excitement about alternative means of energy we finally have a result and we are frustrated!

The price of oil seems to be plummeting and those who were championing the rise of alternative fuels seem to be caught off guard. I this not what you wanted and were planning for?

Have we become a collective group of seers whose mighty predictions are too much for them to deal with?

Where are the champions of solar energy, hydro power, wind energy farms and gas?

5. Propaganda

Some of us have found it difficult appreciating the dawn of the information age. It is possible even under these circumstances to argue that there has always been an information age. In all of this though, it has emerged that those who have claimed a right to certain bits of information and those who have managed to claim a right over the ownership and right to that information have duped the rest of us into giving them quite a lot of authority. We no longer feel educated without their degrees or and approval. We ow invest vast amounts of energy, money and time in getting educated. Naturally this has resulted in the need of greater and control and manipulation of information and This is a trend we will continue to see. 

6. Parasites and pests

We also saw the emergence of the small over the big. The rise of creatures to small to see but powerful enough to exert their influence and cause massive devastation. We faltered and wavered at what to call the new force or power that confronted us but it seems to represent a new form of biological warfare which makes use of microorganisms. We realized a strange balance in power which brought our country to the fore in a fight against a frightening disease and placed our experts right smack dab in the middle of the fight. Unrelated battles regarding intellectual property and the defense of trade (which have defined developed and underdeveloped world relations) could hinge of how we exercise our hold on this latest battle. 

7. Populations 

We were finally able to come up with some figures. We had debated about the rationality of the head count and even asked for special permission to include our cattle (a taboo in these parts where the cow is more sacred than the child). We will continue to see he the numbers which we control will continue to define how well placed we are in the fight for prominence, position and power. We like the Chinese might find ourselves resorting to iron fists which will gradually give way when we have learned how to harness the power of our markets. 

8. Proxies

Not only in the sense of wars but epic religious battles fought by and large by people who bear names that are not there own. Here we saw and will continue to see a clash between religions until the forces behind these religions will come to the fore. I spoke about a revival of tribal beliefs which have suffered the fate of all things primitive. In these parts we will see a return to tradition and naming systems which have existed since time past.