Lessons from the African Union Race.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The results are out and from the look of things the Kenyan Candidate Amina Mohammed is not pleased. She has chosen language similar to what American representative to the U.N chose when she cautioned 'allies and foes' alike against taking positions against the U.S saying, "we will be taking notes" or in the case of Amina making references to broken promises (directed at a Ugandan neighbor who did not play ball).
The race for the top position for the AU, was complex and convoluted. From Uganda we presented Specioza Wandera. She was the first Female Vice president. Uganda has done a lot for inclusion and much of this work has been replicated by governments throughout the continent reflecting this response in the composition of their respective parliaments. S. Wandera did not appear to enjoy a large support base when her intention to run for the AU position was revealed. Much later and after quite a lot of push back from some locals and social media she was edged her on and even managed to persuade the government to foot the bill for her bid. Uganda probably borrowed heavily (in terms of ideas) from the Keyans who were rallying behind their pick. But in hind sight it seems as though both countries had ignored the the warning signs. It appears the AU uses a model similar to what is used in Nigeria. The rotation between North and South or Muslim and Christian which determines who rules. If that is applied in this context after the decision of Ndlamini not to renew her term, then it makes sense that the next leader for the AU would have to emerge from the Northern African states (after a reign from a leader from South Africa). That and the other unmentioned idea of gender? But Suggesting that is bound to ruffle a few feathers. We are also not certain why Mrs. Ndlamini Zuma did not seek a second term. The second question has to do with the vastness of the continent and the need for lobbying and the amounts of cash that were splurged into an exercise which as we have hinted was almost already lost given the facts on the ground. The fallout is interesting because the votes are cast by heads of state whose control and leverage rests entirely in the regions of their origin and the influence these respective blocs hold over the governance of the massive continent. So Ms. Amina's veiled attack falls squarely into the lap of the Ugandan president. This also exposes possible political underpinnings that direct seemingly unrelated events and that work internally (within countries ) and externally (within regions). This is a continent that can hold North America and
India and Europe with some space left for others. So governance as it stands now would depend heavily on these blocs which also tend to overlap memberships. What was interesting to watch is how these groups and their influence affected the likelihood of elections for the AU leaders. Also one could almost see a future when say the dreams of a Nkuruma came to pass and all roads were leading to a presidency of Africa. Would we learn any lessons form this race and how well would our leaders perform were they placed against each other. This was strange because the regional stalwarts were instead of standing for these posts themselves were sending their foreign ministers. Notable regions of strength were ECOWAS especially after we saw demonstrated their abilities to harness military strength. But also in the North, Chad probably benefited from previous experience in military matters having managed quite a number of conflicts from Libya, to Egypt, to Tunisia and Sudan. Are we therefore going to see a decreased influence from the Southern parts of Africa? Will be see a shift up North? Is it as some have observed really just a line between English speaking Africa and Francofone Africa? Maybe the African states are beginning to push back against perceived corruption and disdain for constitutions visible both in Eastern Africa and Southern Africa? Successive governments are going to need to find ways of entrenching themselves in power perhaps by use of business or other institutions directly or otherwise through additional methods of influence. Or are there much more complex dynamics. We leave that to you.

Leadership Suggestion Box

Its been ages since the last reshuffle. Ok...its been
about a year. Strange that i did not notice this last time
around...but clearly our UN Representative made a come back
to the office of health. Yes indeed although he was then referred to
as Ndugu or brother or Comrade (in those former communist
and revolutionary years).
Anyway we are not certain if there will be similar shakeups in the
royal kingdom but what we are almost sure of is that there will
be more suggestions about the possibility of some shrinkage.
On another note we are hopeful that there will be more moves
to ensure the safety of our citizens that that we will make few heroic
moves that place ordinary men in the face of fire.

When we last talked i hinted on some changes that i would make in
the cabinet and in the Ministers of State where to a great extent there was an overreach in form and function. Knowing well your tendency to think of leadership in
military terms i thought long and hard on the challenges you would
continue to face in the process of administration when you were having to
deal with so many sources of information.

For those who are charged with the task of advising you on various issues of
governance, i made the suggestion that these pieces of information be published
for all to see in regular columns in state sponsored newspapers for records sake
and also in your well designed web portal. Maybe all of this would go under the planning ministry which would be used by future presidents...God Forbid!

While i recognize the challenges you may be facing in splitting up your cabinet
to include sectors of development, I would prefer the creation of sectoral clusters
like Energy, Agriculture(Fisheries, Animal Industry), Regional-Internal (Teso, Luwero triangle, Northern, Central, Karamoja), Regional-External (EAC, AU,) Economic (Privatization, Micro-finance, Investment, Finance, Planning,Trade, Industry) Lands (Housing, Transport, Roads)Internal Affairs (Defence,Local Government,Public Service)Education (Primary, Secondary, University)Sports, Gender and Culture (Youth, Elderly).
. 

The Stadium the Church and the State

Right at the end of the year when pundits were beginning to ruminate on the year that past and the year to come, I watched in amazement as an interesting formation took place in the battle for the Ugandan electorate. 

In these parts we were dealing with the effects of certain fissures in our resistance movement watching as historical leaders began to quarrel openly for new positions and places in the hearts of their populace. So we monitored (as much as we were allowed to) the events that would soon take place as waited patiently for our 'Blue Eyed Boy' for any signs of resistance and activity. 

What took place in the Large Stadia was in a word choreographed and highly restricted and most of what emerged was served to us using the machinery of media. 

It is strange that this was not the first time we looked and experienced a change that took place in a stadium, with the activities of the Forum For Democratic Change not being very different. 

The marked difference between the observations of both political parties FDC and NRM were not so much on the machinations or mechanics of the election process (alliances being mainly based on tribe and region) but in numbers. In this case, I compare the numbers for a strictly political gathering and those of religious gatherings that were designed to Usher in  the new year. 

The Christian groups and their events represent to some extent a reassertion of the Born Again Group (Balokole) and its leadership and it's juxtaposition to highly political happenings in the country. 

Several leaders emerged and have emerged over the years as power brokers or movers and shakers. 

The stadium served as a stamp of sorts to distinguish between Pastors or leaders with prominence in a season where the shadow of 2016 is already beginning to have it effect.

Are we seeing the rise of a new political force and to what extent will this affect the outcome of the election? 

In a previous blog I spoke about what I referred to as power centers where, politicians tend to gather for influence and power. In another blog post i also mentioned the possibility that the head of state would face a challenge similar to that faced by Idi Amin Dada when he was forced to move rather strongly against a church which in his view was involved in subversive activity. While the subject of foreign policy is too broad for this it is useful to note that while Idi Amin was in power, Uganda made some sweeping changes which leaned heavily in support of Arab countries, Libya, Palestine and the Middle East. A reversal of these changes was a little too much to ask for in what is referred to as Obote II or even the start of the present regime. Often what leaders will do is reverse the effects and work of their opponents (which is often reactionary) especially if their rise to power was not peaceful. But as time passes there is often a softening which results in much more appreciation of former enemies. 

So without exception it was remarkable to watch as each of the major leaders in the stadium created alliances and succeeded in filling the massive seater monuments to Rome to full capacity. Nambole, Kololo, Nakivubo were call packed and full to the brim. The excitement was palpable and it was interesting to listen as the preachers each began to flex their respective political muscle. 

On a slightly different but related tangent, we were also amazed to see how the Catholics and the Anglicans caught on and began to create similar movements of their own to bring in the new year but also in my view to assert their place in fight for significance and relevance in a obviously younger population. 

Rome comes up in this discussion because not long ago, the stadium was a place of fear and dread for Christians as roman elites gathered to watch believers, slaves and gladiators fight each other and a collection of captive animals all for their entertainment. 

It will prove interesting how the head of state negotiates the rise of this new movement. The consummate politician delivering his book (Mustard Seed) to Pope and managing to often quote a few impressive scriptures what he may now have on his hands is a source to 2016 and beyond. Or will it be that easy?

A tale of three dailies-my pelican brief

We are still dealing with some of the fallout after major rifts in the National Resistance Movement came to the fore. 

My interest for now, is to examine how three separate print media groups covered the story and how the content was delivered to the reading populace (given the literacy numbers and the incomplete social metamorphosis-a good chunk of our populace see only gibberish not words).

Print media still matters because it manages to keep the educated class interested and reading with a view of making good, massive investments In a floundering education system. 

It is this group that then works its way through the masses to digest the information...regurgitate it and then feed it to its underlings who more often than not can do with some analysis and education.

And so the good old radio complete with its funny men, doles out pieces of data from the experts while toying with the intelligence of the populace with flat bed truck presentations of dance and humor served with an appearance of some stars. 

The red pepper (15th March 2014 intelligence briefing) chose to focus more on relationships that grace had formed while in office and examined the results of the man hunt that followed. In a sense, they sought to see how many had benefitted from grace and who among those beneficiaries would remain faithful to the end. So the list gave names covering the full gamut of our known world complete with bio data and a little embellishment. This matters because people do not develop in isolation unless they are gods. 

These developments are connections which the Chinese refer to as guangxi. In these parts we used to have references to "mwana wa Ni" which has quickly collapsed and been overtaken by the use of force( another phenomenon which seems to point to the rise of the lumpen proletariat-something never before imagined). So it is not so much whose son are you, but also who do you know...and what can you do?

But even more than all of this-can you beat the crap out of the competition-literally not figuratively. This reminds me of the 'sudden' rise of a genre of movies that favors fights largely managed by wealth elites and handled by larger often less educated class groups (fight club as well as some of the movies that emerged out of the 

World Wrestling Federation).

The new vision was a little more cautious and rightly so...it has after all often been accused of towing the government line. What the reader needed was to depend on opinion pieces and separate contributions from columnists of influence instead of having to lean too heavily on the paper or the media group for that matter. A smart move given the stakes. 

The monitor, which is part of another jagarnaut was a little more bold in its expression perhaps owing much of this to frequent run-ins with the enforcement arm of the law (closures and arrests of key media personalities). It's responses and much of its coverage was sent to its regional office and presented in its East African version (March 15th-21st 2014 with an article discussing the fall out between two prominent leaders, and an interesting apology form the group regarding an article published in their May 14th-20th 2012 edition, September 27th-October 3rd dealt with the subject but mainly from the broader subject of loyalties and alliances). 

Experts or columnists from its smaller local daily the monitor were utilized for their knowledge but most importantly the paper also carried large ads about some major projects and ministries Karamoja, the Prison Department, Office of the Prime Minister to mention but a few.

The rest of the article that were published in between focused in 'untreated events' but equally important occurrences like the crisis in Southern Sudan (incidentally also loosely filed by a leadership challenge at the top), the award of tenders for the Standard Guage railway, and new developments in Malawi.

It would be tempting to go easy on a group that was literally paying the bills and allowing you to stay in business. 

In terms of strategy, this was probably brilliant on the part of the movement for countering the drive of the East African to reach a larger audience by littering the paper with ad pieces detailing progress on other related governance events thereby saving some fragments of public sentiment. 

The Game and The Politics

It is interesting to watch the interplay between politics and soccer.
Politics and governance seems to produce to effects in its citizens.
There is always a group that choses to leave. It may have experienced a little oppression or may feel little or limited hope in a system that is skewed against its particular clan or language group.
Then there is another select portion that is just adventurous and that has a pioneering spirit. All that and a some extra cash. Moving to a foreign country can be a costly measure. Sometimes this same group often has to pay for this trip with scarce resources and then invests all its hopes in one member. The price of this venture is often land (scare, valuable and treasured). 

Then there are those who stay because leadership often flows in relationships and benefits those with the right name.
Along this group though is another that stays because it has not choice. You must watch this group because it has its stake on the land and its resources and contributes directly using its sweat and tears. Scriptural reference to plows and pruning hooks is written for this group not those who govern and lead using other methods.

At the heart of this struggle is the idea that some still celebrate independence while others are a little too smart to believe the hype. Interestingly, the Amazon has produced very few tribes that have lasted this long using compromise.   

Post independence struggles have instead created a patronage system that progresses by compromise.

Soccer has created similar results. What you have are a few who brave the seas and endure that abuse to find a spot in a good football club. After the struggle many often return to take center stage but facing the difficulty of creating a united front. The challenge for this group is uniting with the group that stays and that feels like it has right to the stage too.

The teams which these guys play for too, have something that they can teach us. Firstly, they are often are not easily led because of a preference for foreign coaches. The feeling is that they are often 'better', but i suspect that the skills they offer have nothing to do with this. Our populations are better led by foreigners with little or no knowledge of our practices because they can judge us entirely on performance. Local coaches on the other hand can be seen to be partial even if they are just as capable.  

It is interesting to watch the current scene of players as it splits between colonial master and colonized.
Well funded and not so well funded.
Maybe at this point it is most important to realize that one is competent enough to find their way onto the Center stage and to have an impact.