Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy

This is how I think Its going to go down. 

In physics we call it the elastic limit. A point beyond which something can no longer stretch. The point at which it actually breaks. Maybe this is where we are. 

THE CROWDS 

Three 'notable' candidates and three sets of noticeable crowds. This is all taking place in a season of elections at a time when preparations are begin made for the years end...and there is money to be made. If there was a method of changing the manner in which we vote and the street became the ballot box, then many of these candidates would be possible front runners. This manner of force favors the activism that the forum for democratic change through K.B would have preferred. But I am certain that M.M is not convinced but he has little to do given the idea that he has to respect the decision of the delegates. M.M was more concerned about the creation of structures that can be used to cement the forum for democratic change and it's place in the grass roots. But I fear that the pull of the crowds will be too powerful a drug for the three time candidate to resist. Instead he will fight on like the Tanzanians did despite the unevenness on the ground and then when it is too late to demand a recount or too cry foul, his opponents will grab the holy book and march comfortably for another fiver. 

Do not be fooled by crowds. 

THE MESSAGE

The FDC has had one major triumph which I have written about before, it is the idea that they championed the message of change. Now change has become the anthem of the Movement as well as Kazigo's clarion call. There is little that anyone can do to overemphasize this but the FDC must strive to show that at least in this regard, the opposition has tapped into the right vein. This is the dilemma of every unknown and upcoming personality. Because of a lack of place and position all one can do is present ideas which the bigger candidates will often pick up and repackage as their own. The underdog is often too small to be perceived as a significant player and so his enthusiasm and wit are often swallowed up by those who have learned through the passage of time to take that which is good and use it for their own benefit. 

The message is change. 

THE VOTER

If I was to find the genuine voter, I have to go to the smallest candidate in the most rural part of Uganda. I would have to interact with the smallest crowd where there is the least amount of fanfare and the least amount of cash. Part of the problem of the crowd is the problem that our vast population seems to be suffer from. The lack of jobs. It would be a very different scenario if for example the candidates were forced to visit farms where large swathes of their citizens were busy, say harvesting subsistence crops for the season or taking advantage of the rains (which are in plenty) but alas they are making quick cash and claiming to need assistance in restoring agriculture. What if for example they chose to visit industries that they themselves have established over the years. Chances are there would be no now to meet them there for a genuine conversation about how the candidature of the politician would affect their employment opportunities.

The true voter is not going to show up. 

THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

The observers are not going to show up until D-day. Which means that they are placing their Stamp of approval on a single day and claiming that it represents a whole process. This is wrong and needs to be rectified. The electoral process is what the black hole is to the universe. A lot of energy that potentially sucks everything else in. The electoral process not just election day are both one and the same machine. It has become Uganda's largest income generator and job creator. Even if no one budgets for it, we have plenty of groups that are willing to invest in it. This is not unique to us region but it has the potential of being much more destructive because we do not have as strong a base in other aspects of our economy. 

Observation should start much earlier. 

IDEOLOGY

The problem with the communism as an ideology is that in this region it sought to destroy and remove anything that had a semblance to royalty and structure and hierarchy. Even if in some regards there was an attempt (later on) to restore the monarchies in several regions, this was little more than windows dressing and the realization that in these parts culture was much too ingrained in our psyche to replace. We are often unable to gauge the effects of these changes because those who we force out are often too far removed from the new changes and voiceless in defense of their kingdoms. The new generals and change makers on the other hand then have to contend with leadership dynamics that force them to operate in a manner not too different from those they have so vehemently opposed. The monarchies fear that they are powerless to defend their people against the might of the invaders, this plays right into the hands of their foes who by now have recruited enough locals into their armed forces. Soon they are receiving medals and honors from foreign forces and wining and dining in camouflages and international capitals. 

This is essentially a politically active and living space...nurture it. 

THE CONCERN

I have not seen a larger gathering of German Made vehicles in a very long time. Old school combies, beetles and yes even the famous 

Bavarian. Kindly forgive me if I express concern and surprise about how intimately the Resistance Movement has become with a German Brand. I do accept the possibility that there are certain rights that the man who wins the war has to history (in writing it and in shaping its character), but we are not accustomed to viewing mainstream German ideas and brands with Resistance! This is why if history is also false in this regard, the resistance movement cannot afford to split and splinter in the manner in which it has in the last few decades. 

Revisit the resistance space. 

REGIONAL GRIEVANCES

We were told that when push comes to shove, fearful voters will tend to congregate and aggregate along tribal lines. Two regions ok three have remained largely untouched and underdeveloped in the last few years. Busoga, Iteso and greater northern Uganda. One has to commend the government for ministries that were established to attempt to direct more attention to these regions. But it is clear that a decent number of people associate leadership with visibility in the top political space. Busoga has remained nostalgic given some of the massive developments that were seen prior to the drive towards independence. In an attempt to revive the economy, government requested the return of the Asians who in a large part were said to have been part of this development. The question is how far back would you go? Would you also invite the British and undo the work of independence movement? Is there nothing redemptive in Idi Amin's leadership and his move to place Africans at the core of Ugandan Business? 

Act locally. 

Trouble in Camp Resistance

When we last had this discussion there was a lot of buzz in the media regarding two bulls in the proverbial kraal. The NTV news (part of the nation media group) had some award winning images where the Big Hat and the Kazigo were caught avoiding each other's gazes. Later on, much of this got a little exhausting with each trying to out do the other. 

From sources in our distinguished press as well as other groups, I chose to create a summary of my own of what I view as some key areas. I called it the battle for the western front because many of us are rather uncomfortable with yet another shift in the western region. We may welcome a change in power but in a frighteningly sectarian and tribal  region we wanted to see say a Karamoja or an Iteso rise. Like the Kenyans we were glad to see the throne return to son of the Father of the Nation but we were also itching to see what kind of difference say a Kamba, Luo, Luhya would make. 

King Makers (international).

We were curious why certain people chose to visit the U.K and why certain media houses were keen to have interviews with the top contenders (British Broadcasting Cooperation as well as Chatham 

House). What they were communicating is that there were certain circles which one had to be familiar with internationally, in order to gain any kind of access to power (all things remaining constant). 

Kings Makers (local).

Locally we identified churches (for both Catholics and Christians) as well as Muslims. The battle for these groups was bound to be much more muddy and so the simpler problem was to find access to the top which led our local leaders directly to the Holy See, to Canterbury and to the Saudis (the debate about how much Muslim power lies here is still on the table). 

Our friends who fondly refer to themselves as primates have certain challenges regarding ordination of Women as well as the controversial question of Human sexuality. But the reigns of power are still intact and 

England at least for now is still going to remain firm in its place. 

Military and police force versus sheer intelligence.

Based on what the local experts told us were saw a battle that would be fought in a characteristic manner by Big Hat. The military and it's arms would prove significant and the police too. We have no doubt that the presence of the military in parliament as well as in the Internal Affairs and the police (both headed by military men) would prove pivotal in the battle for kraal. Meanwhile Kazigo would have to refer to his expertise in the intelligence which we are told he headed for quite a while. 

The trouble with the intelligence battle for Uganda was that both Kazigo and Mr. No Regrets were both intelligence men and their decision to air out our security laundry was both unprofessional and unpatriotic (and we dare say treasonable). I am almost certain that they had their Israeli and 

Russian trainers shaking in the boots and sad to see what these students of theirs we're doing with their training. 

The foul dream of Youth 

While trouble was brewing in the resistance camp, we began to see some hope in the youth. This did not last long. Soon the hope for the future were back on the streets doing tasks that were meant for Lumpen Proletariats. Fluidity is great but a strange question would involve what kind of changes will take place if your class of schooled young people find themselves displaced from their institutions (where they are tasked with helping create policy) in preference for rowdy and often violent appearances in the streets. 

And so it became rather evident that none of these young people saw themselves as leaders but were still keen to do the task of politicking on behalf of old men. 

Borrowing from the U.S election.

We also began to see a time when our statisticians would team up with techies as was done in 2008 to take advantage of regional complexities. What would Uganda's Iowa be? What part of Uganda would represent the bible belt? Would be have swing regions (states) where would our Florida be? And so for the first time in quite a while, we were able to have some kind of census. We were also able to see the age in which the mobile phone and the number became the identity of the user. We worked slowly (with the help of a German company) towards a registration exercise. Those of us who were bound by our laws struggled through the process while those who have grown accustomed to living below the radar simply played along and questioned the legitimacy of this process. 

If people used the data well, then they would be able to predict the outcomes of an election way before any voting took place. 

It might get nasty. 

Even as we watch the progress taking place in the U.S we can see how less money will be spent on negative campaign ads. As things stand, the potential nominees are busy slinging stuff at themselves. No need to pay someone else to do that for you. The back and forth is quite entertaining. Also good to know that our billionaire buddy is an equal opportunity slinger and has not stopped at POTUS. And so we also foresee a nasty information battle that will cause the rise of the tabloids and and if played right will bring about a resignation. The only way you can win an intelligence battle is with dirt. 

The Politicization of Social Media

You've been there before. You are seated in a taxi and suddenly the
person next to you receives a message. You can tell it is from social media because a familiar sound pierces the silence and your neighbor begins mercilessly clicking away. Its fine until you enter paranoia mode and begin to think that you are being stalked.

We've written about a topic similar to the one above in a previous blog. We were concerned and rightly so because we observed the appearance of the Usual Suspects at a normally technology heavy event. Well dressed young men with a lot of 'bling' but suspiciously watching the crowd as if to monitor the activity of the participants for political or opposition connections. You were saddened that an innovation space so full of potential had been infiltrated by 'eyes' and 'ears' and any sign of true innovation was going to be stifled.   

You were angered because you are very aware that one of the hallmarks of democracy is the existence of political free zones where business, trade and a healthy interchange of idea can take place.
We fight for these free zones because in the absence of these spaces there can only be conflict.

And so the image we chose today is designed to illustrate the idea behind an invasion of a media tool by a political movement and the difficulty faced by citizens in expressing themselves in a politically charged atmosphere.
You and I have to think twice before we adorn ourselves with a T-Shirt of a particular color especially in those tense feverish politically charged moments such as the season in which we have entered.

Ok. We can see that the two bulls in the Kraal have began to appear together and their respective owners are itching for a fight between the two. Naturally as many would have expected, these two distinct groups have drawn in their respective tribes in a battle that we shall refer to as the 'Western Front Assault'.

There are some who have called for a rotation of leadership ala Nigeria where the Mainly Muslim North gets a chance to drive the train for a certain distance as does the Mainly Christian South. This has proved to be successful. Ideas have also emerged that have pushed for the creation if similar moves in ethno-centric areas. This is naturally controversial but in countries that thrive on culture it is a question that we must bring to the surface.     

So the need to monitor media in the shadow of your past fears is necessary but more important than this is to deal with the challenges as presented by your citizenry and to trust them enough not to repeat their mistakes.

The Stadium the Church and the State

Right at the end of the year when pundits were beginning to ruminate on the year that past and the year to come, I watched in amazement as an interesting formation took place in the battle for the Ugandan electorate. 

In these parts we were dealing with the effects of certain fissures in our resistance movement watching as historical leaders began to quarrel openly for new positions and places in the hearts of their populace. So we monitored (as much as we were allowed to) the events that would soon take place as waited patiently for our 'Blue Eyed Boy' for any signs of resistance and activity. 

What took place in the Large Stadia was in a word choreographed and highly restricted and most of what emerged was served to us using the machinery of media. 

It is strange that this was not the first time we looked and experienced a change that took place in a stadium, with the activities of the Forum For Democratic Change not being very different. 

The marked difference between the observations of both political parties FDC and NRM were not so much on the machinations or mechanics of the election process (alliances being mainly based on tribe and region) but in numbers. In this case, I compare the numbers for a strictly political gathering and those of religious gatherings that were designed to Usher in  the new year. 

The Christian groups and their events represent to some extent a reassertion of the Born Again Group (Balokole) and its leadership and it's juxtaposition to highly political happenings in the country. 

Several leaders emerged and have emerged over the years as power brokers or movers and shakers. 

The stadium served as a stamp of sorts to distinguish between Pastors or leaders with prominence in a season where the shadow of 2016 is already beginning to have it effect.

Are we seeing the rise of a new political force and to what extent will this affect the outcome of the election? 

In a previous blog I spoke about what I referred to as power centers where, politicians tend to gather for influence and power. In another blog post i also mentioned the possibility that the head of state would face a challenge similar to that faced by Idi Amin Dada when he was forced to move rather strongly against a church which in his view was involved in subversive activity. While the subject of foreign policy is too broad for this it is useful to note that while Idi Amin was in power, Uganda made some sweeping changes which leaned heavily in support of Arab countries, Libya, Palestine and the Middle East. A reversal of these changes was a little too much to ask for in what is referred to as Obote II or even the start of the present regime. Often what leaders will do is reverse the effects and work of their opponents (which is often reactionary) especially if their rise to power was not peaceful. But as time passes there is often a softening which results in much more appreciation of former enemies. 

So without exception it was remarkable to watch as each of the major leaders in the stadium created alliances and succeeded in filling the massive seater monuments to Rome to full capacity. Nambole, Kololo, Nakivubo were call packed and full to the brim. The excitement was palpable and it was interesting to listen as the preachers each began to flex their respective political muscle. 

On a slightly different but related tangent, we were also amazed to see how the Catholics and the Anglicans caught on and began to create similar movements of their own to bring in the new year but also in my view to assert their place in fight for significance and relevance in a obviously younger population. 

Rome comes up in this discussion because not long ago, the stadium was a place of fear and dread for Christians as roman elites gathered to watch believers, slaves and gladiators fight each other and a collection of captive animals all for their entertainment. 

It will prove interesting how the head of state negotiates the rise of this new movement. The consummate politician delivering his book (Mustard Seed) to Pope and managing to often quote a few impressive scriptures what he may now have on his hands is a source to 2016 and beyond. Or will it be that easy?

Machiavelli: Religion and Politics

In this installment on power and politics, I will deal briefly with Machiavelli

And his suggestions for leaders and their relationship with Religion.

I will attempt to give it a little bit of context by restricting some of these discussions to UG. 

He was writing a little like the Arabian Nights story. He know his life was in danger and his success and progress in the hands of that influential Italian Family rested in his ability to demonstrate just how useful he was going to be. 

Recently, we faced an election in a resistance movement stronghold-Luwero. Experts and historians say that this triangle was used to help begin the resistance war that ushered in the new regime. This is described as a historical stronghold of the Democratic Party which was Catholic. The Uganda Peoples Congress was accused of rigging an election and was enjoying a second phase in power when the current president-then rebel took to the bush. 

While the current women representative elections seems to have little effect on larger political questions, there is an attempt to restore or amalgamate politics around religion. 

In the game of chess, as I have written before(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/mr-no-regrets.html), the master strategist has to make sure that he allies his king and queen with a religious stronghold on both sides of the monarchy. Even if we seldom admit it, religion has played a major role in dictating the manner in which our kingdoms and run and the delicate means by which successors to the throne are determined. The Protestants realized this long ago and chose to focus the thrust of thief religious authority on the monarchy. 

In UG, most of our seven hills have sets to our most significant religious systems. Old Kampala for the Muslims, Namirembe for the Protestants, and  for the Catholics. It is also important to note that corresponding medical centers were also established at this key points in the city. 

While the Kingdom reasons rather silent on issues of loyalty often the news is awash with stories of martyrdom and a bloody history of Kings who clashed with subjects that put religion of kingdom. 

But the battle rages on. Countries like the Philippines have taken on a tougher stance with their governments and have been actively involved in politics perhaps even taking on the role of kingmaker. 

Here the balance is much more delicate. I suspect though that religion will take centre stage in the battle for leadership and influence. 

Maybe more camels(land cruisers) will exchange hands. Maybe like in some previous posts the emergence of new leadership in Anglican circles will begin to look frighteningly similar to district level elections

(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/when-religious-appointment-meets.html). We wait to see! 

Machiavelli On Crime and Politics

In this previous post we had a synopsis with a list of several personalities that were used in the structure of the book and my corresponding projections of the key characteristics or thoughts that they demonstrate on leadership.

http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-return-of-machiavelli-politics-of.html

There are two of importance which fall under the category of crime but which must be separated on the role that crime plays in politics.

1. The use of political control using crime.
5. The use of political power through crime.

The first and fifth points are both about crime but need to be separated. The first involves the rise or creation of political space despite crime. As in the case of Scripture, the realization that poverty is always going to be part of life and the need therefore to live despite this ("the poor you will always have with you!"). The second refers to a marriage between crime and politics and the possible creation of counter cultures to exist alongside systems that are perceived as flawed.

In the former the politician taps into the need for security in his populace and promises to make the city safe for them as a result. While he seems genuine in his intentions, what varies is the degree of crime and the level at which the Judiciary can be utilized or manipulated to suit his needs. He controls the system while being a part of it. He has learned the language and the rhetoric that goes with governance.

The latter does the same except because he is not part of the system. He uses crime to manipulate the system and to extract monies in exchange for safety. Because his system is flawed he manages to create business which can be used to create parallel economies and which can keep loyalties within the system. As a result he can promise results and pull back his troops at the same time. Certain frustrations in some countries where guilty men are set free and examples of the latter where the politician is inseparable for a crime ridden system. A key characteristic of these systems is a rise in Mob Justice.

A police force has database and a list of felons and their finger prints. Once a crime is committed they simply access this database for possible culprits. Once in while, certain national needs will arise which will require certain citizens with certain 'skills' and the likelihood of pardons. The question whether rehabilitation really takes place and if change is really possible then arises.