Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy II

CONSTITUENTS 

Perhaps the decision of one of the candidates to focus on a specific groups marks a much needed change in strategy in the broader campaign machinery. The president has greater access to several influential groups such as The Boda Boda Association, UTODA (the taxi drivers association) which has suffered much-at least with regard to influence, and to lesser extent KASITA (an association that is run by city traders). 

Meeting with a church group is therefore a step in the right direction, but the situation being as it is I suspect he will soon face some opposition. So there is a need for both the Go Forward Campaign as well as the FDC group to focus more on very specific groups as opposed to regions and the tribal groups that inhabit them. There is some evidence of this with the second day of the campaigns with promises from Kazigo to at least restore agricultural cooperatives. 

THE UNEXPECTED 

Maureen Kyalya-woman candidate is proving to be quite a surprise for the people of Busoga. She is partnering with a pastor who has had a rough patch with the police after claiming to have been kidnapped. The woman's speech is interesting and the manner in which she has been received is quite revealing. She has stated plainly that there presidency belongs to the Basoga. Her belief is that like the queue that was supposed to be used in the NRM, there is another unstated presidential queue that should be organized around tribes and that this time around should point 

East! An interesting entrance and commentary from a local man was also worth noting. He stated plainly that the Basoga would be very foolish to elect others if one of their own had made themselves available. Maybe the Baganda missed the boat when they failed to align themselves around the candidacy former FDC party-another woman who made great leaps in driving the agenda for Federo (federated governance). 

THE PASTORS

Joseph Mabirizi-not too certain if there is a link with Mabirizi Complex, also stands out because he is a man of Faith. In previous posts where we spoke about the rise of the mega pastors, his is an important development because it involves an entrance into an arena that is largely dominated by political men who often quickly prohibit religious men from walking into the governance space. This makes little sense when politicians are assigned the best seats in religious houses and in many cases given access to the podium. So Mr. Ribs is like the mouse that got away from under the grip of the captors and manages to sound the clarion call. One hopes that in the years to come his act of courage will be imitated by other men of the collar like say...Zac Niringiye who has done a lot to push for the expansion of the inclusive space and paid the price for it with blows from baton holding men. 

BROADER REGIONAL ISSUES

The elephant in the region has to do with the broader concern for Rwanda and Burundi on one hand and Tanzania on another. And the extensive influence of the Congolese. Politics in that regions has centered around the Hutu and Tutsi Conflict which has shaped the character of the people, the politicians and their prophets. In the same way in which the restoration of the nation of Israel characterized and defined modern day middle Eastern Conflict, Character and Concern we have a region that is wrapped up in military thinking and that has found itself tied up to the past with concerns about genocide and complex ethnic tensions. This means that it will become almost impossible to function effectively without the use of excessive military force and power. We already witnessed to some extent a clash between the Rwandese and the Tanzanians but much now rests in the hands of the new head of state in Tanzania and the choices he will make in relating with the sitting Rwandese leader. Tanzania because of its influence in the region (mainly attributed to the leader Mwalimu Nyerere) has had a heavy influence in the selection of leaders as well as in the removal of others. 

MASKS 

If there was a group that was uneasy about the influence of certain NRM leaders in other political parties and if there were fears regarding moles, these fears have been in some regards assuaged. Those who hitherto were enjoying the patronage of Kazigo can now support him in some regards without fear. Given the short term memory of many party adherents there should be caution in the approach towards the future. The opposition will find it easy to judge those who in their view sold out or showed weakness in sticking with the ruling party but the bigger picture as stated before points to the Resistance. If the resistance is the greatest goal, then the opposition to this should be the most noble cause given what resistance movements are supposed to be designed for. 

THE NORTH STAR

Do not take Northern Uganda for granted. So far the only thing that has prevented a greater unity has been the existence of post NRM enmities between the Acholi, the Lango and the Kakwa. But the regions has also benefitted from many reconciliation programs and the investment of NGOs in the redevelopment of the region. The people here have also had much greater engagement in the rest of the country as well as an ability to watch from the sidelines. Maybe their influence in the military has lessened but this they have had a significant portion of their populace moving and engaging and fighting for the liberation of their own people. Even if the records exist stating some measure violence, the predecessor of J.Kony, A.Lakwena was to many a prophetess and military leader whose major aim was to help restore and heal the people of the Northern Region. There was as deeper concern over the region and it's spiritual center and fears that something had gone wrong. These thoughts brought about a lot of soul searching and a desire to revive the people of Northern Uganda. 

Cabinets and Cards

It seems the man at the head of the table has chosen to shuffle the cards in this amazing gamble. The use of the word shuffle is appropriate in the sense that most of the pack is still the same.

We see a group that is fighting desperately to be meritorious in nature but the complexities of African governance are coming into play.

Last year i wrote about what i thought the major trends would be in 2015 and one of the 'P's was Propaganda. We have seen the use of social media (an effective tool in modern day to bring about agitations in governance) to stir up leadership in the Ruling Party.
As a result few of us believe anything unless it comes from the horse's mouth. And maybe that is a unique skill which we will attribute to big hat. His manner of forcing all those with influence to deal with him directly and to have him at the center of all dispute resolution issues.
You are right in calling this micromanagement effective for some but exhausting for others.   

Interesting in the reports from the press regarding some of the figures in the reshuffle.  The local daily Bukedde (the sun has risen), referred to the Attorney General's time in office and some of his experiences as battles. It is rather tragic that ones tenure in office in an age in which we are learning to do what we love can be characterized in similar terms as warfare. And maybe this is a description of what is at stake. 
They mentioned about five major battles:
A battle with the Ministry that handles Roads with special emphasis on the recent Katosi scandal (reports from the anti corruption coalition describe deficiencies in finance totaling up to 165 Billion UGX) , The Uganda Law Society with regards to his ability to advise government, The Inspectorate of Government on Karuma (a dam project), and then a skirmish regarding the case against our Embattled mayor Elias Lukwago.  

Given some of his past experience as an Advocate, State Attorney, Member of Parliament, and counsel for the office of Inspectorate of Government, we can only expect or believe for bigger battles.
There is a gap in the seat of the office of Chief Justice. This would be a major blow in the hands of the Uganda Law Society which would then be forced to call him his worship and to in effect pay obeisance. All his challenges with the ULS notwithstanding, it is probably time for him to step up into a new strata-the league of judges.   

I doubt that the new Attorney General will have time to enjoy his new office. While we are wrestling with the best of corruption, our western allies (and i use that term loosely) have dished out a fresh new anti-corruption training program and turned their attention to the Director of Public Prosecutions. The new project aptly named SUGAR Strengthening Uganda Anti-corruption Response) will focus on technical mechanisms and involves about 78 Billion UGX.

Interestingly, while all of this is happening, our friend is commissioning (and campaigning) some new roads and capturing the headlines....

So what are the take aways?
1. If you are fine where you are, do not accept a job offer. You might be better off handling your business on the side lines.
2. If you take the job, be strategic about it and use that time well to serve but also to consolidate your power.   
3. Try as much as possible to differentiate between service of the party and service of the nation. In the current case, the two seem to have become one and prying them apart will be very difficult.

Another major trend that in my view would characterize 2015 is the concept of Proxies. Put simply, this involves the use of others to fight your battles. This will and has affected political appointments. What is does is give you a false sense of worth and authority when power really lies elsewhere.  Because a seat in a place of influence is rather 'crowded', the only way to get anywhere close to enjoying any privilege is by enriching uranium (which is why the Iranians must stick to their guns and if opposed must fight for a more open and better use of the non-proliferation treaty).

We can see and expect to see a need for money to finance the campaigns of the ruling party. Obvious sources for these funds will probably be some of the more obvious ministries many of which will prove to be a challenge for the new faces at the top. Even if the idea of having to leave office is a challenge, it is better than being locked up and being in charge in an election season and knowing that your powers over your finances are limited!

Machiavelli: Religion and Politics

In this installment on power and politics, I will deal briefly with Machiavelli

And his suggestions for leaders and their relationship with Religion.

I will attempt to give it a little bit of context by restricting some of these discussions to UG. 

He was writing a little like the Arabian Nights story. He know his life was in danger and his success and progress in the hands of that influential Italian Family rested in his ability to demonstrate just how useful he was going to be. 

Recently, we faced an election in a resistance movement stronghold-Luwero. Experts and historians say that this triangle was used to help begin the resistance war that ushered in the new regime. This is described as a historical stronghold of the Democratic Party which was Catholic. The Uganda Peoples Congress was accused of rigging an election and was enjoying a second phase in power when the current president-then rebel took to the bush. 

While the current women representative elections seems to have little effect on larger political questions, there is an attempt to restore or amalgamate politics around religion. 

In the game of chess, as I have written before(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/mr-no-regrets.html), the master strategist has to make sure that he allies his king and queen with a religious stronghold on both sides of the monarchy. Even if we seldom admit it, religion has played a major role in dictating the manner in which our kingdoms and run and the delicate means by which successors to the throne are determined. The Protestants realized this long ago and chose to focus the thrust of thief religious authority on the monarchy. 

In UG, most of our seven hills have sets to our most significant religious systems. Old Kampala for the Muslims, Namirembe for the Protestants, and  for the Catholics. It is also important to note that corresponding medical centers were also established at this key points in the city. 

While the Kingdom reasons rather silent on issues of loyalty often the news is awash with stories of martyrdom and a bloody history of Kings who clashed with subjects that put religion of kingdom. 

But the battle rages on. Countries like the Philippines have taken on a tougher stance with their governments and have been actively involved in politics perhaps even taking on the role of kingmaker. 

Here the balance is much more delicate. I suspect though that religion will take centre stage in the battle for leadership and influence. 

Maybe more camels(land cruisers) will exchange hands. Maybe like in some previous posts the emergence of new leadership in Anglican circles will begin to look frighteningly similar to district level elections

(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/when-religious-appointment-meets.html). We wait to see!