P squared

It's been a rather interesting few months in our East African politic.

Our friends in Burundi made some bold attempts to urge their leaders on and this for now seems to have failed. In the meantime right next door in the historically volatile Rwanda, another president seemed to have received the go ahead to keep his spot in the centre. 

I could not help but think about a tweet I noticed on the Internet in which a reference was made to stealing from 'Paul to pay Peter'. And so my thoughts run wild with ideas about Paul Kagame on one hand and Pierre (Peter) Nkurunziza on the other. 

Both military men. Both leading fragile democracies and both being urged to make room for others.

Saint Paul is still a formidable foe and by all accounts quite a military strategist, from what our sources tell us, he does not take to kindly to opposition movements and has managed to stretch the arm of his government all the way to South Africa and France.

Internally and regionally he has found it rather difficult keeping the calm with various groups attempting to wage war against his government from bases in the large Congo. The existence of minerals in the region has done little to help the situation- this as well as posturing from friends and foes alike in the area where the ethnicity card card has been played to the full. 

The South Africans have done their best to flex their muscle in the region and have often stepped in at crucial moments to help steer the movements of their northern neighbors. 

France on the other hand has had to deal with decades of guilt and off course the residue from its colonial years. In attempts to free itself from the disasters in the early nineties, the French have taken on the role of arbiter in the internal conflicts of the country but with limited success. 

The military move in Burundi (by the coup plotters) effectively robbed the rapidly evolving movement of its momentum thereby preventing civil society from claiming its largely peaceful drive towards the protection of the sacred constitution (and the contents of the Tanzanian peace accord and Agreement).

By seeming to attach themselves to the peaceful activity in the streets, the military and it's top men gave the absent president much more power to claim the existence of bad elements in the army and therefore to garner much more support in the center. 

Cabinets and Cards

It seems the man at the head of the table has chosen to shuffle the cards in this amazing gamble. The use of the word shuffle is appropriate in the sense that most of the pack is still the same.

We see a group that is fighting desperately to be meritorious in nature but the complexities of African governance are coming into play.

Last year i wrote about what i thought the major trends would be in 2015 and one of the 'P's was Propaganda. We have seen the use of social media (an effective tool in modern day to bring about agitations in governance) to stir up leadership in the Ruling Party.
As a result few of us believe anything unless it comes from the horse's mouth. And maybe that is a unique skill which we will attribute to big hat. His manner of forcing all those with influence to deal with him directly and to have him at the center of all dispute resolution issues.
You are right in calling this micromanagement effective for some but exhausting for others.   

Interesting in the reports from the press regarding some of the figures in the reshuffle.  The local daily Bukedde (the sun has risen), referred to the Attorney General's time in office and some of his experiences as battles. It is rather tragic that ones tenure in office in an age in which we are learning to do what we love can be characterized in similar terms as warfare. And maybe this is a description of what is at stake. 
They mentioned about five major battles:
A battle with the Ministry that handles Roads with special emphasis on the recent Katosi scandal (reports from the anti corruption coalition describe deficiencies in finance totaling up to 165 Billion UGX) , The Uganda Law Society with regards to his ability to advise government, The Inspectorate of Government on Karuma (a dam project), and then a skirmish regarding the case against our Embattled mayor Elias Lukwago.  

Given some of his past experience as an Advocate, State Attorney, Member of Parliament, and counsel for the office of Inspectorate of Government, we can only expect or believe for bigger battles.
There is a gap in the seat of the office of Chief Justice. This would be a major blow in the hands of the Uganda Law Society which would then be forced to call him his worship and to in effect pay obeisance. All his challenges with the ULS notwithstanding, it is probably time for him to step up into a new strata-the league of judges.   

I doubt that the new Attorney General will have time to enjoy his new office. While we are wrestling with the best of corruption, our western allies (and i use that term loosely) have dished out a fresh new anti-corruption training program and turned their attention to the Director of Public Prosecutions. The new project aptly named SUGAR Strengthening Uganda Anti-corruption Response) will focus on technical mechanisms and involves about 78 Billion UGX.

Interestingly, while all of this is happening, our friend is commissioning (and campaigning) some new roads and capturing the headlines....

So what are the take aways?
1. If you are fine where you are, do not accept a job offer. You might be better off handling your business on the side lines.
2. If you take the job, be strategic about it and use that time well to serve but also to consolidate your power.   
3. Try as much as possible to differentiate between service of the party and service of the nation. In the current case, the two seem to have become one and prying them apart will be very difficult.

Another major trend that in my view would characterize 2015 is the concept of Proxies. Put simply, this involves the use of others to fight your battles. This will and has affected political appointments. What is does is give you a false sense of worth and authority when power really lies elsewhere.  Because a seat in a place of influence is rather 'crowded', the only way to get anywhere close to enjoying any privilege is by enriching uranium (which is why the Iranians must stick to their guns and if opposed must fight for a more open and better use of the non-proliferation treaty).

We can see and expect to see a need for money to finance the campaigns of the ruling party. Obvious sources for these funds will probably be some of the more obvious ministries many of which will prove to be a challenge for the new faces at the top. Even if the idea of having to leave office is a challenge, it is better than being locked up and being in charge in an election season and knowing that your powers over your finances are limited!