P squared

It's been a rather interesting few months in our East African politic.

Our friends in Burundi made some bold attempts to urge their leaders on and this for now seems to have failed. In the meantime right next door in the historically volatile Rwanda, another president seemed to have received the go ahead to keep his spot in the centre. 

I could not help but think about a tweet I noticed on the Internet in which a reference was made to stealing from 'Paul to pay Peter'. And so my thoughts run wild with ideas about Paul Kagame on one hand and Pierre (Peter) Nkurunziza on the other. 

Both military men. Both leading fragile democracies and both being urged to make room for others.

Saint Paul is still a formidable foe and by all accounts quite a military strategist, from what our sources tell us, he does not take to kindly to opposition movements and has managed to stretch the arm of his government all the way to South Africa and France.

Internally and regionally he has found it rather difficult keeping the calm with various groups attempting to wage war against his government from bases in the large Congo. The existence of minerals in the region has done little to help the situation- this as well as posturing from friends and foes alike in the area where the ethnicity card card has been played to the full. 

The South Africans have done their best to flex their muscle in the region and have often stepped in at crucial moments to help steer the movements of their northern neighbors. 

France on the other hand has had to deal with decades of guilt and off course the residue from its colonial years. In attempts to free itself from the disasters in the early nineties, the French have taken on the role of arbiter in the internal conflicts of the country but with limited success. 

The military move in Burundi (by the coup plotters) effectively robbed the rapidly evolving movement of its momentum thereby preventing civil society from claiming its largely peaceful drive towards the protection of the sacred constitution (and the contents of the Tanzanian peace accord and Agreement).

By seeming to attach themselves to the peaceful activity in the streets, the military and it's top men gave the absent president much more power to claim the existence of bad elements in the army and therefore to garner much more support in the center. 

War in Heaven-Ebony springs

This week we saw the dawn of what I will describe as an ebony spring. 

Previously with the exception of Burkina Faso, there were springs emerging from predominantly lighter skinned and mainly Arab Africa. 

Tunisia had emerged from its fog after a young man struggling with employment doused himself in petrol and then lit the match. This event had gone on to bring about an awakening in Egypt whose streets were soon overtaken by crowds of eager demonstrators calling for change. 

In previous blogs I had ruminated about the existence of an imaginary mason dixon line which roughly splits Africa into two sections much like the pre-independence America. I had gone on to describe the nature of this divide along mainly religious lines which also often take on a certain hue. 

So Burkina Faso was a breath of fresh air for many. For the first time, the sons of biblical Joseph seemed to have began a rebellion of sorts after decades and even centuries of casualness and passivity. This marked a spring that was now owned exclusively by black people.

The demonstrations in Burundi seemed to have taken in a similar format however my ears grew attentive when for a brief moment the activity in the streets was referred to as war. What this meant was that there was a brief opportunity to capture the narrative away from the agreements that were singed after the civil war (agreements preventing an extension of term limits) as well as ideas behind hallowed documents such as the constitution. Calling the activity in the city war, would therefore justify a measure of violence and if possible nip in the bud any commitments that would be made by any generals or top cops. 

Maybe this calculation would help prevent any strategic moves by influential leaders to steal the thunder from the activists and civil society groups or citizens for that matter. 

There were and are fears about driving a wedge between the two major ethnic groups a la Rwanda but the text was pretty solid and the variations clear. Regardless of the tribe or the current leader, the people...those that had managed to make it into the streets were calling for a respect of their sacred documents. They were challenging the member of the military to abide to the higher law. Similar sentiments were echoes in previous debates between the Congolese who struggled though the same concerns and other ideas would also emerge in neighboring Rwanda. 

All this was taking place across a complex backdrop of immense mineral wealth as well as the rise of well armed and well funded militias drawing in leaders across the region and causing convoluted relationships between states. 

So the involvement by a section of the army was a welcome development but it has not stolen the show from the civil society and the community at large. What it has revealed is a major or for some minor rift in the military machine and brought about a ratcheting up of an already strained management system. 

And while it might be attractive to summarize such complex ideas in such brief spaces, the hope is that we might distill a little more from the initial awakening in Tunisia which in my view was really about youth and unemployment. It should be noted that even after the massive and in some ways commendable changes in that country, the exodus of bright young North African minds has not ceased. If this is an invasion, then it's strategist has chosen an incredible method-and that by depleting the continent of its most prized possession-it's people.