The Presidential Debates in Kenya-an attempt to find the issues.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking. 

Entertaining other possibilities.

So the day came and passed by swiftly. After a consultation with the debate organizers, the decision was made to have it only between two of the top candidates. Few of us have entertained the idea or possibility of the loss of both men maybe because it is so far fetched. But what would happen if the two most popular leaders ceased to exist. My guess is that the whole process would go into a tail spin and all of a sudden we would have no option but to listen and make space for the rest of them. 

The task of two and the role of one. 

From what we are told there was some expectation that Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta was going to be present but that was not the case. Instead Raila Odinga faced the crowds on his own. We were told that the numbers were impressive (in the age of digitization this process of monitoring is made much simpler). What the result of this was that Baba (as those who hold him in their affections refer to him) took on the role of both candidates. 

A question that was presented helped bring this idea to the fore. The moderators were wondering if both candidates were simply extensions of their fathers both of whom were political giants in the history of the nation. 

Were the two families holding the nation hostage? 

Characteristic tribal affiliations.

Kenya has some similarity with Zimbabwe in the sense that those who were at the forefront of the fight of resistance against the British in this case the MAU MAU (Mzungu Arudi Ulaya Mwafrika Apate Uhuru) have always felt a sense of ownership over the country. In Zimbabwe the liberation fighters are still at the heart if the leadership of the nation and part of Robert Mugabe's unpopularity stems from his unwillingness to negotiate with the white settlers. A similar vein appears in South Africa with Julius Mlema whose attitude towards the white South Africans has drawn him quite a lot of ire. More recently in Kenya we have seen some of these ideas re-awakened with challenges against the ownership of precious tracts of land in the highlands as well as issues of land for pasture. What you have as a result of this is the creation of a historic few whose hold on the reins of power is now being questioned. I argue that the emergence of the Mungiki in the last few years in Kenya was probably a manifestation of this rift in thinking at least in the ranks of hard core Kikuyu resident. The battles against the British would have characteristically involved more Kikuyus especially because back in the day the territories that were being fought for were tribal lands. 

The question regarding an entrenched core (or what is referred to as Mafia) stems from this period which merged the idea of oath taking and silence (OMERTÀ as it is known in the Italian language-the vow of silence). 

Closer home too, we have seen the rise of this type of thinking especially as regards the removal of Idi Amin and Milton Obote. Those who were more prominent in the liberation struggle or at least those who made sure they were seen as being prominent have created a sense of entitlement. 

The question regarding youth and employment. 

The rise of the Mungiki was probably was manifestation of a problem regarding change within the youth who on one hand were close to their parents but distant with regards to experience. But this was unique to the Kikuyu as a core group at least in terms of population in Kenya. Maybe the same can be said of Somalia which survived for so long without a government but whose youth feel a sense of loyalty towards their faith and their territory. In the latter case, here has also been a merger of two rivers that represent the local youth and the young people that have grown up outside of Somalia, perhaps in places like the United Kingdom whose educations system is good at generating forward thinking graduates. 

An export of western models in eastern contexts. 

The debate format is probably an export from the west that is proving popular in our days. I think that the success of this method varies and depends heavily on the caliber of citizenry and the level of interest in these types of engagements. On the whole it seems as though the debates are have a larger audience abroad than locally. From what we saw similarities were drawn between the incumbent and our very own both of whom were not present at critical moments of the debate. The difference is that there was not too much of a reference to the empty chair as was the case in Uganda. The other difference is that on the local scene the hard of state got a chance to make up for the no show. What has emerged in the last few days is the use of FB live by Uhuru Kenyatta probably as a means to further engage his audience. It will be difficult to tell if there will be repercussions for the no show. 

The polls, news items and social media. 

2016/2017 was the year in which the poll was supposed of have fallen out of favor. No one saw or called the Rise of DJT. As things stand now, the pollsters are calling it even. There are no others on the radar unless they are flying low. But what is changing now is the extensive use of tools that seem to have affected the elections in the U.S such as false news. 

The question of land, rents and landlords. 

Historical Problems. 

Probably the most telling moment for candidate was when he used the opportunity to remind the audience about his experience in Prison. The lights were affecting him and this helped serve as a reminder of the Moi years and the difficulties that many leaders faced when the stood in opposition to the KANU. What is interesting is the almost impossible task of figuring out the political party history of the country. From the FORD days (Forum for the Restoration of Democracy) and the split that created FORD Kenya, FORD ASILI to what we have now. Which is really the rise of those who were at the heard of the resistance movement of the day and who to this day can be trusted (at least in the eyes of the populace) with the political future of the Country. 

War in Heaven-Ebony springs

This week we saw the dawn of what I will describe as an ebony spring. 

Previously with the exception of Burkina Faso, there were springs emerging from predominantly lighter skinned and mainly Arab Africa. 

Tunisia had emerged from its fog after a young man struggling with employment doused himself in petrol and then lit the match. This event had gone on to bring about an awakening in Egypt whose streets were soon overtaken by crowds of eager demonstrators calling for change. 

In previous blogs I had ruminated about the existence of an imaginary mason dixon line which roughly splits Africa into two sections much like the pre-independence America. I had gone on to describe the nature of this divide along mainly religious lines which also often take on a certain hue. 

So Burkina Faso was a breath of fresh air for many. For the first time, the sons of biblical Joseph seemed to have began a rebellion of sorts after decades and even centuries of casualness and passivity. This marked a spring that was now owned exclusively by black people.

The demonstrations in Burundi seemed to have taken in a similar format however my ears grew attentive when for a brief moment the activity in the streets was referred to as war. What this meant was that there was a brief opportunity to capture the narrative away from the agreements that were singed after the civil war (agreements preventing an extension of term limits) as well as ideas behind hallowed documents such as the constitution. Calling the activity in the city war, would therefore justify a measure of violence and if possible nip in the bud any commitments that would be made by any generals or top cops. 

Maybe this calculation would help prevent any strategic moves by influential leaders to steal the thunder from the activists and civil society groups or citizens for that matter. 

There were and are fears about driving a wedge between the two major ethnic groups a la Rwanda but the text was pretty solid and the variations clear. Regardless of the tribe or the current leader, the people...those that had managed to make it into the streets were calling for a respect of their sacred documents. They were challenging the member of the military to abide to the higher law. Similar sentiments were echoes in previous debates between the Congolese who struggled though the same concerns and other ideas would also emerge in neighboring Rwanda. 

All this was taking place across a complex backdrop of immense mineral wealth as well as the rise of well armed and well funded militias drawing in leaders across the region and causing convoluted relationships between states. 

So the involvement by a section of the army was a welcome development but it has not stolen the show from the civil society and the community at large. What it has revealed is a major or for some minor rift in the military machine and brought about a ratcheting up of an already strained management system. 

And while it might be attractive to summarize such complex ideas in such brief spaces, the hope is that we might distill a little more from the initial awakening in Tunisia which in my view was really about youth and unemployment. It should be noted that even after the massive and in some ways commendable changes in that country, the exodus of bright young North African minds has not ceased. If this is an invasion, then it's strategist has chosen an incredible method-and that by depleting the continent of its most prized possession-it's people.