Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

A Repeat of History-Some thoughts on the race for the white house

As we or the Americans for that matter begin to prepare for the race to the White House, we can already see a certain coagulation of power
around some rather familiar families.
We are speaking here about the Bush Family and the Clinton Family. From the latter, we are expecting Hillary-A seasoned diplomat to take the front row
seat and to at least return the family to the oval office.
Her husband and colleague an obvious asset to the Democratic Party will be by her side advising and helping steer the campaign. We are not certain if the drive for change that swept B.H.O into the Oval Office will bring
about yet another change-this time in favour of Women.
We are quite sure that she will have her detractors which is why in this regard i have pushed for the emergence of another of the Clinton family...much younger and with her own share of experiences but untested in the political sphere.
If the American were to rally any of the Clintons, surely this one would be it. But that would mean waiting in the tow and earning a little more experience.
The Bush family has also experienced quite a revival partly caused by some of the residue from Junior speech in which he reminded the Americans that they were addicted to oil.
 The Question is whether or not the country as a whole is ready for another Bush and if the republicans can trust this version of the famous family to take the seat.

We have seen few candidates with Military Experience which will prove valuable in the days to come, and the system as it stands seems to be be readying itself for a lot more engagement.

So maybe this time around the people will make a choice to move further and deeper with the change as they saw it communicated in 2008 or on the other hand though,they could decide to return to those things which are
more predictable and stable.

But the emergence of a candidate from Florida (Bush) and the Historical Swing states will still prove as valuable as they have continued to be in all of the recent previous elections. We also think that the minorities will play a major role. We are not certain which party will benefit from the changes that have taken place in Cuba and if as before the Supreme Court will be asked to step in. 
Only time will tell but what is interesting is the cover of the International Economist dated April 22nd-28th 2006 in which we see a democrat in the background and a fight on the whole against the Bush Family.

A marriage made in heaven? Not really

In Uganda there was a drive to link the police service with our ever present Boda Boda cyclists. The intent is simple enough...on the surface but is sure to present some challenges in the future. 

The temptation to use the cyclists as an extension of the service or to assist in community policing is noble but there is still a massive challenge of registration and organization. 

It is impossible to expect all your Boda Boda cyclists to rally behind the ruling party or to devote all their energies towards the opposition. My suggestion though, similar to what others have stated is to harness their numbers in the form of an association or group whose needs can then be represented towards one goal. 

The Iranians and the Burmese are some examples of countries that have made use of the cyclists as an extension of their intelligence services but the idea springs a lot more from convenience and speed as opposed to experience. 

It is likely that our countries will continue to struggle and debate the ideas behind intelligence gathering around numbers (quantity) and substance (quality). But there is likely to be a fallout at least in these parts in regards to mass. In a sense, your work is likely to be ruined because of the amount of information you have to process so that the real valuable stuff ends up under the pile of the really unimportant stuff. 

In addition to this, given the tendency to exercise force for which our boys on the bikes are know (mini skirts as a case in point). You are bound to find a sizable amount of abuse in the area of enforcement.