Defining the Presidency.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

There are few things that are going to define the presidency. The first will take place around mid year or much later depending what states you are in. It is called Hurricane Season. For that reason, you need to pick your disaster management team with caution. If you look back to the Bush years (Walker-The Texas Ranger not Herbert) you will notice that everything was going great until Katrina Happened. Then some fissures appeared in the teams that had been put in place. But to be fair that was a disaster unlike any other but it still define a good part of the second term for that president and in a sense managed to fix the change message with the democrats picked up with glee. Al Gore who has also just recently lost a significant fight was also able to continue his march and message toward the effect on the Environment. In what could become a two term presidency therefore FEMA needs to be revisited. The second challenge will be about external pressure to engage with foreign military groups. Pulling back is good and helps focus energies on local challenges but your predecessor (The Texas Ranger) was very insistent on the need to take the battle to them as a means of preventing attack on local soil. Finding a balance for this strategic move will be important. My guess is that you will also need to revive the Faith Based Initiatives which i believe cover all bases and religions and were designed to simplify the relationship between people of faith and the practice of that faith. The next challenge will come (God forbid) should there be another incident in a school and will continue to challenge your belief and relationship with the Second Amendment. There was a brief scuffle in the midwest but this was not covered well by the media and in my view was probably the closest we came to applying the right to bear arms-which is mainly in my view supposed to apply to the need to create a militia should there be failures in government. The NRA will come to the fore again but your earlier position regarding gun control and background checks should help you in silencing of Ghosts of Presidencies Past. The manner in which the process of selecting a new head of state was altered in many ways and DJT did not seem to need to courtesy around the traditional lobby groups as did other presidents but the presence of a son in law will take this battle to anther level. If there are any deals (or past confrontations) that took place in NY (a heartland for Jewish thinkers) these could come back to haunt you. We already see this playing out with the media but we are almost certain that you are well placed to handle any fist fights from that section of the big apple. The press will start by hating you but later on they will come around and up their game.

Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy II

CONSTITUENTS 

Perhaps the decision of one of the candidates to focus on a specific groups marks a much needed change in strategy in the broader campaign machinery. The president has greater access to several influential groups such as The Boda Boda Association, UTODA (the taxi drivers association) which has suffered much-at least with regard to influence, and to lesser extent KASITA (an association that is run by city traders). 

Meeting with a church group is therefore a step in the right direction, but the situation being as it is I suspect he will soon face some opposition. So there is a need for both the Go Forward Campaign as well as the FDC group to focus more on very specific groups as opposed to regions and the tribal groups that inhabit them. There is some evidence of this with the second day of the campaigns with promises from Kazigo to at least restore agricultural cooperatives. 

THE UNEXPECTED 

Maureen Kyalya-woman candidate is proving to be quite a surprise for the people of Busoga. She is partnering with a pastor who has had a rough patch with the police after claiming to have been kidnapped. The woman's speech is interesting and the manner in which she has been received is quite revealing. She has stated plainly that there presidency belongs to the Basoga. Her belief is that like the queue that was supposed to be used in the NRM, there is another unstated presidential queue that should be organized around tribes and that this time around should point 

East! An interesting entrance and commentary from a local man was also worth noting. He stated plainly that the Basoga would be very foolish to elect others if one of their own had made themselves available. Maybe the Baganda missed the boat when they failed to align themselves around the candidacy former FDC party-another woman who made great leaps in driving the agenda for Federo (federated governance). 

THE PASTORS

Joseph Mabirizi-not too certain if there is a link with Mabirizi Complex, also stands out because he is a man of Faith. In previous posts where we spoke about the rise of the mega pastors, his is an important development because it involves an entrance into an arena that is largely dominated by political men who often quickly prohibit religious men from walking into the governance space. This makes little sense when politicians are assigned the best seats in religious houses and in many cases given access to the podium. So Mr. Ribs is like the mouse that got away from under the grip of the captors and manages to sound the clarion call. One hopes that in the years to come his act of courage will be imitated by other men of the collar like say...Zac Niringiye who has done a lot to push for the expansion of the inclusive space and paid the price for it with blows from baton holding men. 

BROADER REGIONAL ISSUES

The elephant in the region has to do with the broader concern for Rwanda and Burundi on one hand and Tanzania on another. And the extensive influence of the Congolese. Politics in that regions has centered around the Hutu and Tutsi Conflict which has shaped the character of the people, the politicians and their prophets. In the same way in which the restoration of the nation of Israel characterized and defined modern day middle Eastern Conflict, Character and Concern we have a region that is wrapped up in military thinking and that has found itself tied up to the past with concerns about genocide and complex ethnic tensions. This means that it will become almost impossible to function effectively without the use of excessive military force and power. We already witnessed to some extent a clash between the Rwandese and the Tanzanians but much now rests in the hands of the new head of state in Tanzania and the choices he will make in relating with the sitting Rwandese leader. Tanzania because of its influence in the region (mainly attributed to the leader Mwalimu Nyerere) has had a heavy influence in the selection of leaders as well as in the removal of others. 

MASKS 

If there was a group that was uneasy about the influence of certain NRM leaders in other political parties and if there were fears regarding moles, these fears have been in some regards assuaged. Those who hitherto were enjoying the patronage of Kazigo can now support him in some regards without fear. Given the short term memory of many party adherents there should be caution in the approach towards the future. The opposition will find it easy to judge those who in their view sold out or showed weakness in sticking with the ruling party but the bigger picture as stated before points to the Resistance. If the resistance is the greatest goal, then the opposition to this should be the most noble cause given what resistance movements are supposed to be designed for. 

THE NORTH STAR

Do not take Northern Uganda for granted. So far the only thing that has prevented a greater unity has been the existence of post NRM enmities between the Acholi, the Lango and the Kakwa. But the regions has also benefitted from many reconciliation programs and the investment of NGOs in the redevelopment of the region. The people here have also had much greater engagement in the rest of the country as well as an ability to watch from the sidelines. Maybe their influence in the military has lessened but this they have had a significant portion of their populace moving and engaging and fighting for the liberation of their own people. Even if the records exist stating some measure violence, the predecessor of J.Kony, A.Lakwena was to many a prophetess and military leader whose major aim was to help restore and heal the people of the Northern Region. There was as deeper concern over the region and it's spiritual center and fears that something had gone wrong. These thoughts brought about a lot of soul searching and a desire to revive the people of Northern Uganda.