Showing posts with label Kenya.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kenya.. Show all posts

Monday, July 31, 2017

LXB and BXL

 LXB and BXL

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The last few months have been momentous for Asia Watchers. The economist run a article in which they asked if China had lost its conscience. The piece was written in reference to Liu Xia Bo or LXB as he came to be know on social media. China and it's citizens and those who follow the scene in a heavily restrictive environment had created a set of initials to get past the world's most stable and impenetrable firewall. 

This was done after the state chose to restrict coverage of the controversial Nobel prize winner especially after his illness became , known. This activist and social commenter had become a thorn in the flesh for the ruling class with his calls to end one party rule. As is often the case, the the rebel became a darling of the west while managing to alienate himself in the site of his own leadership. 

In the meantime, another promising political voice Bo Xi Lai (BXL) presents an extreme on the other end of the spectrum for a country that needs to find its conscience. He was a party insider who Father was once part of a core group. He grew up in the system and was even seen by some to be readying for the top job. He quickly fell out of favor when some scandals emerged that were to grave to ignore. 

So where is China 's middle ground? 

This week and on another platform, two key voices were pitted against each other for their role in Modern China. The first Chang Kai Shek, the second Mao Tse Tung. 
One a champion of the revolution and therefore an advocate of the communist movements, the other an anti-communist. 
Both men tied to history and the need to preserve the status quo but both confronted by the forces of change. 
What is most interesting about the emergence of both men is that the age that proceeded after the end of Kingdoms necessitated or seems to require large chunks of time. These large periods of time both created a cult sense around these two leaders and resulted in a monarchy re-imagined. A study of china's history therefore has to be done with regards to those who gained prominence on one hand and those who fell victim to the forces of change both controlled and uncontrolled. A study of Mao Tse Tung involves as can be expected a look at his history. His relationship with his father, his peasant background, his love for literature, his exploration of the ideas that furnished the revolution in Russia, his marriages, University life and work life, role in the major systems that governed a post revolution china, ideas he presented once he came into power and then relationships with foreign nations. 

The possibility of a collapse of the union as it stands in China is still a long way away. But it is a possibility. Thinkers that watched the collapse of the soviet union have to think about those that functioned under the ideology in the past and that still cling on to it. While the new head of state is still holding the fort and for all intents and purposes trying to revive the glories of Russia sans Czar this reality is should be dealt with by Chinese thought leaders. The trouble is there is no counterbalance of forces. At the moment the state is strong and it has successfully merged its power with its extensive purse. 
Meanwhile In Uganda we are troubled why a few CEOs by passed our territories in favor of Kenya and Rwanda. Maybe God covered us with a kisubi (to cover one with grass as a protection measure). For it is going to prove increasingly difficult to split between the function of China as a government and those of China and it's influential business people. Should the business people rise as they should they might end up being on a collision course with a state that has its hands firmly on the state. 
Seem have argued that much of the development on the local scene has been good for the region especially because China has taken no meddling position. But what the Dragon has demonstrated in her territories is a thirst and hunger that is unquenchable and a willingness to use force in the acquisition of additional territory and resource. 

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Milking the masses



It's been a few days since the Kenyans pulled off a coup d'tat at the Hague. A triumphal entry similar to the one that had taken place only a few days prior (in Uganda) then followed in which a sizable group of Kenyans met the head of state as he arrived back into the country. 
As the Ugandan media was trying to deal with an apparent rift between two major players in the so called resistance movement (so called because the history of resistance movement in my view is often fraught with much less pomp and circumstance-which is why it is probably preferable to refer to it as a revolutionary movement). 

Those with a keener eye and better memory referred to the return of the Colonel...to Uganda which back in the day was met with a mammoth crowd as well as that of popular TV personality who had made a name for himself in a season of Big Brother. 

Even if some called this an amazing feat of mobilization, there is great risk of placing Big Hat under the same category as his former Colonel and the Big Brother Star. Apart from the free fuel...and the chance to see a star or two, we can speak of a power vacuum that existed and that necessitated an absence of one leader for a certain aspect of the rift to be dealt with. 

It is important to note that we are now speaking of a broader East African Politic in which different parts of the opposition and civil society are making use of each others creativity by acts of replication.

And so the triumphal march of one is imitated by another (politics) and the use of hogs in parliament, and coffins (Kenya) is dubbed by another (civil society in Uganda). The force with which both protests are met is matched as the enforcement arm of the judiciary responds with rapidity and continues to spend millions towards equipment. 

In an interview or appearance on the radio, TMJ or the man some of you choose to refer to as motor mouth, makes a reference to the value of what I call the emotions of the masses. In this reference he is basically saying that it serves you well to milk the masses of their mercy especially when you find yourself in trouble. 
This is what some experts refer to in the ICC case...at least in reference to the head of state. It is a little too late to apply the same to our counterparts in Khartoum and would prove rather risky for him to attempt to pull this off. 
We are now left to wonder if the right decisions have been made. A long prison sentence is bearable in as far as it allows you to live to fight another day (albeit behind bars). I do not see the international criminal court assenting to hanging as a means of justice but these are possibilities in many of our countries and that is if natural African justice is not allowed to come into play. 

None of the our major players have been in power long enough to claim the right to a collapse of their nations a la Libya, Egypt and Iraq. 

Put this together and I see a rise in Radicalization of the youth. You can only watch for so long before you become affected by what you see and act on it. At the core of this group will be the Fourth Estate and an exhausted civil society. 
You can see aspects of this in Uganda whose opposition has played it cool for long but is beginning to experience an exhaustion. 

The youth will begin to realize that they do it stand a chance against the machinery of the state and a manipulated legislative and judicial arm. 
In some regards you will find a nameless faceless group with absolutely no links to power and it's trapping but with a realization that they have a stake in the governance of their nations. I they are unable to force their governments into exhaustion but their demands and drive the bureaucracy to a halt. They will begin to think about creative ways to turn their plowshares into swords. This is as we all know a largely agrarian economy.