LXB and BXL

 LXB and BXL

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The last few months have been momentous for Asia Watchers. The economist run a article in which they asked if China had lost its conscience. The piece was written in reference to Liu Xia Bo or LXB as he came to be know on social media. China and it's citizens and those who follow the scene in a heavily restrictive environment had created a set of initials to get past the world's most stable and impenetrable firewall. 

This was done after the state chose to restrict coverage of the controversial Nobel prize winner especially after his illness became , known. This activist and social commenter had become a thorn in the flesh for the ruling class with his calls to end one party rule. As is often the case, the the rebel became a darling of the west while managing to alienate himself in the site of his own leadership. 

In the meantime, another promising political voice Bo Xi Lai (BXL) presents an extreme on the other end of the spectrum for a country that needs to find its conscience. He was a party insider who Father was once part of a core group. He grew up in the system and was even seen by some to be readying for the top job. He quickly fell out of favor when some scandals emerged that were to grave to ignore. 

So where is China 's middle ground? 

This week and on another platform, two key voices were pitted against each other for their role in Modern China. The first Chang Kai Shek, the second Mao Tse Tung. 

One a champion of the revolution and therefore an advocate of the communist movements, the other an anti-communist. 

Both men tied to history and the need to preserve the status quo but both confronted by the forces of change. 

What is most interesting about the emergence of both men is that the age that proceeded after the end of Kingdoms necessitated or seems to require large chunks of time. These large periods of time both created a cult sense around these two leaders and resulted in a monarchy re-imagined. A study of china's history therefore has to be done with regards to those who gained prominence on one hand and those who fell victim to the forces of change both controlled and uncontrolled. A study of Mao Tse Tung involves as can be expected a look at his history. His relationship with his father, his peasant background, his love for literature, his exploration of the ideas that furnished the revolution in Russia, his marriages, University life and work life, role in the major systems that governed a post revolution china, ideas he presented once he came into power and then relationships with foreign nations. 

The possibility of a collapse of the union as it stands in China is still a long way away. But it is a possibility. Thinkers that watched the collapse of the soviet union have to think about those that functioned under the ideology in the past and that still cling on to it. While the new head of state is still holding the fort and for all intents and purposes trying to revive the glories of Russia sans Czar this reality is should be dealt with by Chinese thought leaders. The trouble is there is no counterbalance of forces. At the moment the state is strong and it has successfully merged its power with its extensive purse. 

Meanwhile In Uganda we are troubled why a few CEOs by passed our territories in favor of Kenya and Rwanda. Maybe God covered us with a kisubi (to cover one with grass as a protection measure). For it is going to prove increasingly difficult to split between the function of China as a government and those of China and it's influential business people. Should the business people rise as they should they might end up being on a collision course with a state that has its hands firmly on the state. 

Seem have argued that much of the development on the local scene has been good for the region especially because China has taken no meddling position. But what the Dragon has demonstrated in her territories is a thirst and hunger that is unquenchable and a willingness to use force in the acquisition of additional territory and resource. 

A Fall, A Subission or a Knockout-the last debate as I saw it.

This time around I was fortunate enough to have a front row seat where I was able to watch the activity of the Elections. 

Getting what we deserve or need.

As a start and with hindsight it seems as though the Americans have been blessed with the heads of State they have needed for the unique circumstances their country has faced (external influences notwithstanding and assassinations). 

Two Decades of evidence or proof.

Most recently the country needed to community organizer and lawyer to unite the country under the banners of change and maybe they got that in Barack Hussein Obama. Prior that they needed a military face (and I argue that military service ought to be a pre-requisite to the presidency) and that they got in the extension of King George's legacy. Go back a few years and maybe the governor from Arkansas brought in even more knowledge and experience regarding the law. Prior to this confrontations with the Soviet Union and future altercations in the Middle East brought about the need for another military man with a lot war time experience. The announcement  that came soon after naturally related to the New World Order and the call to 'Tear Down This Wall'. 

In the Early and Late seventies there was an exhaustion from the Machinery of War and those who were at the heart of its effects and influence regardless of who was in charge of the Oval Office. 

Monarchs in name with foreign policy influence.

The challenges and troubles and the fall out that resulted in the water gate scandal brought about some changes that were unexpected but that may have also been attributed to the divine hand. Ford can therefore be looked at as an anomaly. But he too calls attention to the value of good Vice Presidents who are able to step in at a time of crisis should they be needed. You could almost argue that Cheney was the power behind the Bush presidency. Having wielded influence for decades before in the corridors of power long before the emergence of the Monarchs. But he too as I have often argued at least by name may have been a ancient reincarnation of one of those Richards of old. As was Henry who retains as much respect as he held back in the day negotiating peace and various types of contracts between the Vietnamese and the Americans and the Chinese. 

Well split and managed.

So one thing was outstanding about this debate. The manner in which everything flowed and the clarity with which the differences between the two candidates was articulated. 

SUPREME COURT

The closeness with which Hillary Rodham Clinton stuck to President Obama's agenda (especially regarding his choice of Supreme court judge). Donald Trump on the other hand insisted on his candidates as presented to the press and the public weeks before. 

Clearly the changes in the highest court in the land would be monumental and useful in determining the fate of the nation. 

ROE Vs. WADE

The select use of language to describe his position regarding the right to life doctrine versus the right to choice was also another outstanding example of the vast differences that exist between the two candidates and possibly a major turning point in the decision making process for many conservatives (traditional Christians will find it hard to ignore this difference). But this is also problematic because the republican crew has had a very rough time accepting the candidate and his abrasive style. 

WALLS AND DEALS 

We also saw quite a split in thinking regarding how to handle the immigrant question with varying opinions on close neighbors (Mexico) and more distant and possibly more desperate (Syria). But this also worked and was used along the economic and trade question which was milked to its core by Donald Trump who enjoys the use of superlatives and hyperbole in describing the 'worst deal in History'. Fortunately he has some clout in defense of his positions and just when you expect him to speak in generalities he manages to slip in a blade to expose the innards of an unsuspecting opponent. 

ENDORSEMENTS AND MAMMOTH CROWDS 

The question of experience was tackled well by Hillary Clinton who chose it differentiate between her busy last thirty years contrasting these years with her adversary in which she narrowed it down to celebrity shows. Donald Trump was keen and in many moments most sincere when he attempted to question her about why these new changes were only just occurring in the mind of the candidate after a whopping three decades in power. 

The biggest challenge in this regard for Donald Trump will be as he already stated accepting the results that will be given at the end of the race. 

This is because he has been present amidst the crowds and these as we have seen in East Africa (both Tanzania and Uganda-with both opposition leaders) can be very deceptive. The biggest issue will be to convert the mammoth crowds and the discontent into votes. 

SYRIA, IRAQ, IRAN, CHINA, EGYPT AND LYBIA. 

It was almost impossible to listen to the foreign policy question without thinking about the middle east and the vast changes that have taken place threatening to alter the map of the middle east as we know it. Donald Trump made full use of his endorsements from men with military experience and others in law enforcement as well as border patrol. He leaned heavily in the past and the idea that he would have never supported the invasion of Iraq. Each successive leader has to deal with the challenge of war and interests that arise. We have seen how the first few years of office are honey moon years and go quickly the grey hairs invade the scalp. We have also noted how quickly time passes forcing the candidate to think about legacy and second terms...and yes delivering on promises made in campaign highs. 

Dealing with the Bear-both economically (markets) and politically.

Here are a few thoughts that you should think about as you prepare for your elections. We are accustomed to conventional king makers. But i think it is time we seriously started thinking about a resurgent soviet union.

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First a story. A young lady shows up with a CCCP Branded shirt and an American quickly wonders how much success to expect at the immigration office.

My response? Where does the former president (Gorbachev) of the Soviet Union live? California off course. What about the Master Chess player (Kasparov)? The U.S.A of course.

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These are the perils of democracy or perhaps the positives and negatives aspects of democracy. On one hand you have to offer asylum to those who are in distress at the risk of welcoming those who are foes. There is also the possibility that citizens will in the future be challenged when war forces their host county to engage in hostile acts. Ask the Japanese about the internment camps. With all this in my it is still not very simple deciding who or what really constitutes of a true citizen. The citizenship tests and the vows notwithstanding!

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Another story. There is a lady who gave a presentation for the centre for policy studies in Ottawa. She was trying to make a case for President Putin as a wrestler (in strategy and thinking) and not a chess player.
A shorter closer contact sport with a few rounds as opposed to a longer drawn out engagement between two adversaries.

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So in the event of an engagement with the Russians, how do you think the most prominent citizens would behave? How quickly can you put into action your sleeper agents? There is plenty of fodder in Hollywood about this Salt is just one example. Where an agent deep in the agency and close to the president attempts to bring about a chaotic situation by 'engaging' a Russian prime minister.

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Another story of note is the rise in whistle blowing that has really damaged U.S relations. Most of what has been done was done in the Interest of Pubic good but at the cost of American Intelligence. And where are these groups turning for solace? Well Russia (Snowden) and South America (Asange).

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The fourth is a story that has to do with a shift in American thinking that brought about an interest in Socialism. This can be reflected in the popularity that brought Bernie Sanders to the fore and that forced an uneasy alliance with Hillary Clinton. The Black Lives Matter Movement, the 99 Percent (occupy movement), and in part the tea party. Are all clusters that reflect the same sentiments and that are bringing about unimaginable conversation about class distinction in a capitalist stronghold.

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Barack Obama "America is too strong to destroy from outside..." the question is if you were to destroy it from within what would you do?

I have sometimes argued that the the series 24 prepared us for a black presidency albeit a troublesome one. Where the protagonist was given the arduous task of protecting a black president from California from agents in the white house who were using his military past to haunt and attack him. Could this be our Gina Davis Moment?

But that is closer to fiction than fact.

If there are any lessons to learn one of these must be never to use your power in office (presidential roasts) and your humor to respond too strongly to an opponent. This has been the fuel in Trumps engine. And it has roared on. 
Perhaps we have also learned something about what it means to walk the fine line across the political divide and create activity and conversations between historical foes. We have also seen how crippling life can get when the hatred for the executive is at its peak and what it means to be entrenched in a system that is rigged for failure and booby trapped with all sorts of neat little gadgets.

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Now the machine rages on and we are already getting troubling subliminal ideas about the possibilities of a rigged vote and that in the Bastion of Democracy. Last time this happened, we invited the Supreme Court of the United States into the picture while we counted chads and effectively handed the presidency back to the Texas Ranger. 
So are we being prepared to believe that the Opinion Polls are going to be the only true factor to decide on the fairness of the U.S election?

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The fifth story has to do with the Brexit and it's effects on Europe Economically, Politically and most importantly Militarily at least in decision regarding Engagement with Russians and by extension NATO.

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This might be good news for the Russians but it might be drawing us closer to the edge as the British pull out of their deals with China.

All this as the Russians begin to assert their authority in the break away republics.

Also in the news is the plan to talk to the Turks a current no go zone for the Americans even if to be fair POTUS, has pardoned a fair measure of Turkey diner on historical thanksgiving celebrations. How the Russians negotiate that space will prove interesting

When Africa hits puberty

There is talk in these parts about the skill often associated with our female colleagues in managing to milk the resources of their male counterparts. 

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The idea springs from our campuses and basically describes a situation in which the average gal can fund her challenging school days from the meager resources of an unknowing suitor or group of suitors. 

You will often hear of a list of chaps whose job function ranges from airtime guy, to meal guy, to upkeep guy and many more. 

Which brings me the article title...in which I suggest that Africa has hit puberty. Finally she realizes that she has goods that are attractive to the market (resources) and suitors. Who would have know that she is in a position to play them all and receive the benefits of her 'attractiveness'. 

The Americans seem to play from a different line. They will not overtly use American workers to to work the roads or to manage their projects but back home a healthy chunk of the cash sent here will be harvested at home and benefit the home front. The Chinese are more overt in their declaration of love interest. But they are making their play from a backwards position. They have the disadvantage of having a language that is yet to be adopted by the rest of the world. Fortunately though we cannot say the same about the possibility of having their currency take center stage in place of he dollar. In addition to this, the Chinese have not always felt the urge to play he game fairly when it comes to trade. 

In addition to this, their use of labor is less restricted and more obvious. 

Perhaps a late comer in this battle is India but there is a likelihood that her resources can still be utilized. What China is to the U.S in terms of development and labor especially in the 20th century, India is to Africa. How India manages to put her foreign populations into the system will determine how much progress she makes. 

So what the the rules and who are the major players. The countries with the largest populations are obvious players. Then there are those nations whose history gives them an edge as colonial 'masters'. Then there are the teeming populations striving to make a change and move from previous positions of supposed inferiority. 

The rules are important because they determine how the changes we need happen and who the true beneficiaries of this change are. The rules also help protect the 'gals' from manipulation and abuse and guarantee a level of fairness ( fairness assumes this to be some kind of game with rules). In a previous post I borrowed heavily from the work of certain practitioners who approach centered on the law and viewed the major players as cats and mice involved in a complex battle for space and a shifting of platforms or fora. Nations that were still fighting for a space and struggling to find a uniting front for themselves were found wanting as sudden shifts were made to regional agreements and rules that were still being understood changed. 

Understanding China and Her Hatred of Opium

It is about 1839 or thereabouts. China is at a peak of its development (Qing Dyansty) and currently dealing with the British who are managing trade as well as expansion through contacts with the East India Company. There is a bit of an imbalance in trade with the British and the diplomatic Chinese are having a blast. After some skillful strategizing, the British manage to get their product into the Chinesae market fueling a war and a set of negotiations that cause a reversal of fortunes for the British and the change of the trade dynamics. A letter is sent to the reigning British Monarch which is ignored and misunderstood. The letter written by a representative from the Chinese government, expresses some of the Chinese displeasure over the current conditions and the trade in a comodity that is unwelcome by the Chinese. The letter is full of references to Chinese anger (penalties) and warnings and even suggestions reagarding other possiblities of trade (wheat,tea,rhubarb). The port of choice is no different from the current port and city (back then a central port of entry for ships and traders). The first war takes place lasting about a year and then takes place again later on in 1856 or thereabouts. This time there is French involvement and more casualties on the British side. There is also a fallout amongst the Rich and the Poor of China who have began to engage in Opium related activities. The changes in trade as well as other un-forseen circumstances are taken to be causes of the fall of a Dynasty and the resignation of a rather influential emperor. The troubles that arise in this corner of the world cannot be taken in isolation and much of what takes place here is repeated in other Monarchies as in Russia with the decline of the Romanov Dynasty. Even if revolutionary changes begin to take place in the region and other systems take their place, battles over history and significance will continue to rage in Faculties of History headed by modern day generals or professors. It is therefore no wonder that in the present day, Chinese disdain for drugs and Opium to be more precise is still as strong as it was almost 150 years ago. Maybe other countries need to understand the direct effects that this substance caused in the decline of a powerful dynasty and the traces of this defeat that are still alive in the Chinese Psyche.

The Blame Game and the Genetic Code-Hegemony

There is something strange about the playground and the dynamics of growing up. There big guy is seldom the bully...if you pay close attention he is often used by a smaller guy whose size does not seem to limit the depths of his ambition. He ( the little guy) veils his inadequacies by controlling others and successfully manages to control and manipulate the bigger guy into doing his dirty work. 

This is China's dilemma. He is simply the bigger guy who everyone watches and blames while a littler guy gets away with all the planning and dirty work. So how do we identify the little guy in order to ease the tension on China. 

This week the premier spoke quite clearly about China's DNA and the idea that it is not written into the people's code to exercise rule over others. 

So what does the future look like. The dragon (revered in the East but feared and shunned in the West) is a useful symbol in understanding Chinese Psyche but statements by the German leader about the it's rise in the future have done little to assuage these fears. 

I suspect that the future will bring about more thoughts about different civilizations that marked ancient China...and even date I say thoughts but a revival of the Ancient Rulers. Strange that a Hong Kong billionaire has recently sought to create a prize of his own (which he is calling the Tang Prize) to rival the Nobel Prize. This could be a sign of a desire to revive not the Kings necessarily, but the individual civilizations in their glory. 

So what shape or form does the little bully take?

Is it communism? A concept that was developed by the Russians and that helped shape Chinese thinking. Or maybe thoughts from France regarding revolution which were also responsible for displacing the ruling class and helping refocus the population towards the working class.

The challenge is that the blame will fall on the bigger guy and he will have to face a barrage of insults until the power or force behind him is identified. What is strange about this is that 

China's size and her needs for energy and resources (especially food) places her in a place of vulnerability so that none of what she does in defense of her freedoms or territories can be seen as anything but aggression. Her smaller neighbors on the other hand, can do as they please and lay the blame on their larger neighbor. 

My suggestion- watch her smaller neighbors..Taiwan and Tibet. They may have the key to understanding her aggression. 

The Dragon's Den

A few weeks ago i posted the linked to an podcast about
the importance of establishing hegemony and the 'conversation' that is taking place between the U.S and China. I am new to this stuff but it was amazing how much flexibility the Americans have enjoyed around the world.

We have not experienced China's rise and the use of her influence at least not in the full regard. What we seem to have seen here, is the expression of her strength economically and in her ability to drive African development...with no apparent strings attached. The Americans though have emerged with new technology which is changing the manner in which war are fought. But limitations in this regard still mean that at the end of the day, boots still matter.

How quickly technology can recreate the soldier so that men can merge with machines or at least imitate the boots on the ground is an argument for another blog. What is clear though is that China's need for resources and the size of her populations along with her eventual military muscle will soon overtake her need for soft power. We are seeing some expressions of this in the Far East as smaller powers cower at the dragon's tail and its desire for more resources.

It is no wonder the unimagined is now happening and the Vietnamese are now embracing and courting the American's who...not too long ago they successfully resisted.

Maybe this time around the younger Vietnamese will rekindle the flames of their long gone heroes to launch a similar resistance but times have changed and military battles are not fought with ordinary weapons. Vietnam has been challenged though and this time around America in not facing the same Russian foe. 

The Author of the podcast stated that one of the advantages of establishing a regional hegemony was that it gives you freedom to roam...unchallenged.

Conflicts that arise will therefore be linked to other nations that challenge one's ability to roam freely and the exert influence and in our case affect access to resources.
The American public is exhausted but its military industrial complex is booming. Clearly the drone is as significant a development in the History of warfare as was the Oxbow, Catapault, firearm and later on the Mechanized Vehicle. 

A word of caution. The party is much bigger than the individual and care must be taken to ensure that sensitivities within the Chinese psyche are considered (loosing face). So be very careful never to rebuke or challenge your foreign friends publicly. The last thing on their minds is messing you up and loosing face. If you have to let them deal with their own challenges.

There is an interesting development in Korean History and Chinese History where three kingdom mergers came to the fore. Every time powerful kingdoms met with other Kingdoms (or their religious manifestations), they each faced the challenge of disunity (internally rising from groups that had to chose who to follow) and the choice toward unity for all smaller kingdoms under one banner. In Uganda, the Ganda, Ankole, Soga and Bunyoro Kingdoms faced similar challenges.

In the early nineteen hundreds, choices had to be made between reigning monarch and factions that were pro British (protestant), French (catholic), or even Arab (muslim). The casualties were many but the results devastating. There was a failure to realize that none of the groups that came to 'evangelize' were independent from governments that sent them and that none was insulated from the desire for resources and trade.