Update from the British Isles

Damned if she does and damned if she does not

So the long awaited poll took place and from what we gather has left many speechless. It has helped clarify
quite a number of things for Theresa May. The experts tell us that she was damned from the start if she did hold
the poll and damned if she did not hold the poll. Either way she needed to make sure she had some kind
of mandate. Had she soldiered on, she would have been questioned and challenged.
There was a sense of Deja Vu at least on this side of the activity and all i could think about was the confident
Sri Lankan head of state who called a snap election only to be ousted by his prime (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/sri-lanka-elections-150818133605788.html).
Democracy Sometimes sucks

The former Home Office head needed and still needs some kind of mandate for this is no simple
task as the Brits seek to respond to the needs of their populace. Here is where Democracy sucks. To have to make
such grave decision when the gap between two opposed parties is so slim. One of the issues that has emerged post
poll is the idea of experience. The same experts have wondered if one needs a little more than just an
office in the Home Office with some additional skill from say the Exchequer or the Foreign Office. So they have ploughed into her in this regard. But to be clear there is nothing comfortable about this divorce.
The Europeans are under pressure to deal harshly with the Brits lest they loose their momentum and the few
enthusiastic members they still have left in the Union. So the Brits need to unite under one banner. What this means
is that there is really not going to be any thing soft about the Brexit. The best that the Brits can hope for is
an extension that drags the process on and ends up causing a sense of fatigue. In addition to this a deliberate
attempt to ruin the process of May can prove fruitful if it manages to earn them time and compassion from the
European Union.
Not so gentle response from the Economist

The age old publisher has not been very kind with regard to this new leadership core. According to the magazine,
this has not been the best team in a long while (http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723101-country-will-soon-go-bat-against-brussels-one-its-weakest-teams-decades).
They argue that the British have not had the best of choices.
And they may be some truth in this. Firstly, one should not expect great leaders unless they rise in the background of
tough times. This maybe the very thing that causes them to be great. The circumstances under which they rise
tend to form the leaders. Secondly, the same seems to be the case in the now more experimental France
as well as Holland and the U.S where the populace has not really sat down to chose with ease but have been
forced to chose between the better of two evils.
A response to circumstance

It is not easy to understand what drove the response from the British but there is some evidence that a major split
is increasing between the young and the aged. The former were more responsive this time around and may
have been responsible for Mr. Corbyn's success. The generational split is therefore symptomatic of more to come
and of a handover between the generations that is not taking place. All eyes are on the French and Macron who is
re-writing French history as a one year old party "marches" on to victory. Why these kinds of movements have failed in duopolies like the U.S is a story for another day. Additional troubles have arisen in Conservative strongholds (extremely wealthy) which have voted for Labour (traditionally working class party).
The Americans

There is a possibility that the Americans saw this coming and the relationship between the two will strengthen. The Brits need to have an economic relationship that can fill in an gaps that they may appear after the exit. The challenge will be in making deals with the great 'deal maker' who at this point still has a soft spot for the English. While for some its seems like a descent into madness in slow motion, there are reasons to be hopeful. This side of the hemisphere we had visits from more contrite colonial masters who were looking to revive old deals as well as revive commonwealth sentiments.
Skapegoats
 
Taking the blame for the troubles in the party and jettisoning staff members may work for now but what the party needs more that anything is unity for the whole. There is some nobility in falling on your sword and this is even sounding like a page out of an Asian Playbook. Contrition is great but this latest appeal to party-mates seems like a frightening return to a strategy that failed during the elections when the whole fight was turned into a personal fight and not a broader fight for the party. This was no presidential election they said so refusing her from making it about her should also apply this side of the broader election loss. The electorate is no longer the same passive group of 'hoodwinkable-knownothings' that can be lulled into passivity. They will respond with the vote and reject all those who are perceived as not having Britain at heart. There is a revolution in the first world and it has everything to do with the ballot box.

45 and his "I told you so" moment

So as we expected the events on London's Bridge and the subsequent attacks have drawn us back to pre-election time and to DJT's "what the hell is going on?" comment. This is interesting because right before the British go for a significant poll, the PM is beginning to sound a little like her American Colleague (whose handshake and welcome was much more warm!). Critics of the Home Secretary as she was then have been at her heels saddened at the references and allusions to these recent events as 'pivotal' as though the previous attacks have had no effect. They have also pointed to some notable reforms made during her tenure which significantly brought down the numbers of men in Uniform in a fight that looks like will continue to involve the police. The numbers are not in her favour with the odds stacked against law enforcement in a fight that is becoming more like a internal guerilla war of attrition that is depending heavily on media and copy cat crimes sourced from all over Europe (France and Germany). Experts are even calling for the return of previous more experienced recruits to help strengthen the British Force.
Given the extent at which the American President was fought and the manner in which the Legislative branch fought his actions we see an extended and re-awakened push for tougher reform from a president who does not like to look bad. Already the blame game has been up and the tech industry is refusing to get involved with those who misuse its spaces. In the meantime privacy will again be compromised on the alter of security and the tech giants will find themselves forced to lean closer to governments whose level of trust with local citizenry has been eroded over the years. Both Islam and Judaism have managed to engage so deeply with their adherents to the point where it is often difficult to split between religion and culture (way of life). This thin line will continue to cause challenges for both with some of the mainstream faiths such as Christianity taking on a mediator role. We see no immediate upsets in the electoral process although off course security is going to be central in the thoughts of the electorate. We also see a sense of exhaustion with the Brexit challenges and a populace that really just want the government to get on with it. If there is a key word that can summarize the days to come it would be uncertainty. In addition to this i expect to see some surprises as the characteristically cool and stiff upper lip of the Englishman begins to shake. Maybe the reported hail of bullets (50 rounds in three men) that was pumped into the assailants is already evidence this.

Dealing with the Bear-both economically (markets) and politically.

Here are a few thoughts that you should think about as you prepare for your elections. We are accustomed to conventional king makers. But i think it is time we seriously started thinking about a resurgent soviet union.

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First a story. A young lady shows up with a CCCP Branded shirt and an American quickly wonders how much success to expect at the immigration office.

My response? Where does the former president (Gorbachev) of the Soviet Union live? California off course. What about the Master Chess player (Kasparov)? The U.S.A of course.

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These are the perils of democracy or perhaps the positives and negatives aspects of democracy. On one hand you have to offer asylum to those who are in distress at the risk of welcoming those who are foes. There is also the possibility that citizens will in the future be challenged when war forces their host county to engage in hostile acts. Ask the Japanese about the internment camps. With all this in my it is still not very simple deciding who or what really constitutes of a true citizen. The citizenship tests and the vows notwithstanding!

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Another story. There is a lady who gave a presentation for the centre for policy studies in Ottawa. She was trying to make a case for President Putin as a wrestler (in strategy and thinking) and not a chess player.
A shorter closer contact sport with a few rounds as opposed to a longer drawn out engagement between two adversaries.

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So in the event of an engagement with the Russians, how do you think the most prominent citizens would behave? How quickly can you put into action your sleeper agents? There is plenty of fodder in Hollywood about this Salt is just one example. Where an agent deep in the agency and close to the president attempts to bring about a chaotic situation by 'engaging' a Russian prime minister.

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Another story of note is the rise in whistle blowing that has really damaged U.S relations. Most of what has been done was done in the Interest of Pubic good but at the cost of American Intelligence. And where are these groups turning for solace? Well Russia (Snowden) and South America (Asange).

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The fourth is a story that has to do with a shift in American thinking that brought about an interest in Socialism. This can be reflected in the popularity that brought Bernie Sanders to the fore and that forced an uneasy alliance with Hillary Clinton. The Black Lives Matter Movement, the 99 Percent (occupy movement), and in part the tea party. Are all clusters that reflect the same sentiments and that are bringing about unimaginable conversation about class distinction in a capitalist stronghold.

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Barack Obama "America is too strong to destroy from outside..." the question is if you were to destroy it from within what would you do?

I have sometimes argued that the the series 24 prepared us for a black presidency albeit a troublesome one. Where the protagonist was given the arduous task of protecting a black president from California from agents in the white house who were using his military past to haunt and attack him. Could this be our Gina Davis Moment?

But that is closer to fiction than fact.

If there are any lessons to learn one of these must be never to use your power in office (presidential roasts) and your humor to respond too strongly to an opponent. This has been the fuel in Trumps engine. And it has roared on. 
Perhaps we have also learned something about what it means to walk the fine line across the political divide and create activity and conversations between historical foes. We have also seen how crippling life can get when the hatred for the executive is at its peak and what it means to be entrenched in a system that is rigged for failure and booby trapped with all sorts of neat little gadgets.

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Now the machine rages on and we are already getting troubling subliminal ideas about the possibilities of a rigged vote and that in the Bastion of Democracy. Last time this happened, we invited the Supreme Court of the United States into the picture while we counted chads and effectively handed the presidency back to the Texas Ranger. 
So are we being prepared to believe that the Opinion Polls are going to be the only true factor to decide on the fairness of the U.S election?

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The fifth story has to do with the Brexit and it's effects on Europe Economically, Politically and most importantly Militarily at least in decision regarding Engagement with Russians and by extension NATO.

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This might be good news for the Russians but it might be drawing us closer to the edge as the British pull out of their deals with China.

All this as the Russians begin to assert their authority in the break away republics.

Also in the news is the plan to talk to the Turks a current no go zone for the Americans even if to be fair POTUS, has pardoned a fair measure of Turkey diner on historical thanksgiving celebrations. How the Russians negotiate that space will prove interesting