Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy II

CONSTITUENTS 

Perhaps the decision of one of the candidates to focus on a specific groups marks a much needed change in strategy in the broader campaign machinery. The president has greater access to several influential groups such as The Boda Boda Association, UTODA (the taxi drivers association) which has suffered much-at least with regard to influence, and to lesser extent KASITA (an association that is run by city traders). 

Meeting with a church group is therefore a step in the right direction, but the situation being as it is I suspect he will soon face some opposition. So there is a need for both the Go Forward Campaign as well as the FDC group to focus more on very specific groups as opposed to regions and the tribal groups that inhabit them. There is some evidence of this with the second day of the campaigns with promises from Kazigo to at least restore agricultural cooperatives. 

THE UNEXPECTED 

Maureen Kyalya-woman candidate is proving to be quite a surprise for the people of Busoga. She is partnering with a pastor who has had a rough patch with the police after claiming to have been kidnapped. The woman's speech is interesting and the manner in which she has been received is quite revealing. She has stated plainly that there presidency belongs to the Basoga. Her belief is that like the queue that was supposed to be used in the NRM, there is another unstated presidential queue that should be organized around tribes and that this time around should point 

East! An interesting entrance and commentary from a local man was also worth noting. He stated plainly that the Basoga would be very foolish to elect others if one of their own had made themselves available. Maybe the Baganda missed the boat when they failed to align themselves around the candidacy former FDC party-another woman who made great leaps in driving the agenda for Federo (federated governance). 

THE PASTORS

Joseph Mabirizi-not too certain if there is a link with Mabirizi Complex, also stands out because he is a man of Faith. In previous posts where we spoke about the rise of the mega pastors, his is an important development because it involves an entrance into an arena that is largely dominated by political men who often quickly prohibit religious men from walking into the governance space. This makes little sense when politicians are assigned the best seats in religious houses and in many cases given access to the podium. So Mr. Ribs is like the mouse that got away from under the grip of the captors and manages to sound the clarion call. One hopes that in the years to come his act of courage will be imitated by other men of the collar like say...Zac Niringiye who has done a lot to push for the expansion of the inclusive space and paid the price for it with blows from baton holding men. 

BROADER REGIONAL ISSUES

The elephant in the region has to do with the broader concern for Rwanda and Burundi on one hand and Tanzania on another. And the extensive influence of the Congolese. Politics in that regions has centered around the Hutu and Tutsi Conflict which has shaped the character of the people, the politicians and their prophets. In the same way in which the restoration of the nation of Israel characterized and defined modern day middle Eastern Conflict, Character and Concern we have a region that is wrapped up in military thinking and that has found itself tied up to the past with concerns about genocide and complex ethnic tensions. This means that it will become almost impossible to function effectively without the use of excessive military force and power. We already witnessed to some extent a clash between the Rwandese and the Tanzanians but much now rests in the hands of the new head of state in Tanzania and the choices he will make in relating with the sitting Rwandese leader. Tanzania because of its influence in the region (mainly attributed to the leader Mwalimu Nyerere) has had a heavy influence in the selection of leaders as well as in the removal of others. 

MASKS 

If there was a group that was uneasy about the influence of certain NRM leaders in other political parties and if there were fears regarding moles, these fears have been in some regards assuaged. Those who hitherto were enjoying the patronage of Kazigo can now support him in some regards without fear. Given the short term memory of many party adherents there should be caution in the approach towards the future. The opposition will find it easy to judge those who in their view sold out or showed weakness in sticking with the ruling party but the bigger picture as stated before points to the Resistance. If the resistance is the greatest goal, then the opposition to this should be the most noble cause given what resistance movements are supposed to be designed for. 

THE NORTH STAR

Do not take Northern Uganda for granted. So far the only thing that has prevented a greater unity has been the existence of post NRM enmities between the Acholi, the Lango and the Kakwa. But the regions has also benefitted from many reconciliation programs and the investment of NGOs in the redevelopment of the region. The people here have also had much greater engagement in the rest of the country as well as an ability to watch from the sidelines. Maybe their influence in the military has lessened but this they have had a significant portion of their populace moving and engaging and fighting for the liberation of their own people. Even if the records exist stating some measure violence, the predecessor of J.Kony, A.Lakwena was to many a prophetess and military leader whose major aim was to help restore and heal the people of the Northern Region. There was as deeper concern over the region and it's spiritual center and fears that something had gone wrong. These thoughts brought about a lot of soul searching and a desire to revive the people of Northern Uganda. 

Desktop Activism and Post Event Prophecy

This is how I think Its going to go down. 

In physics we call it the elastic limit. A point beyond which something can no longer stretch. The point at which it actually breaks. Maybe this is where we are. 

THE CROWDS 

Three 'notable' candidates and three sets of noticeable crowds. This is all taking place in a season of elections at a time when preparations are begin made for the years end...and there is money to be made. If there was a method of changing the manner in which we vote and the street became the ballot box, then many of these candidates would be possible front runners. This manner of force favors the activism that the forum for democratic change through K.B would have preferred. But I am certain that M.M is not convinced but he has little to do given the idea that he has to respect the decision of the delegates. M.M was more concerned about the creation of structures that can be used to cement the forum for democratic change and it's place in the grass roots. But I fear that the pull of the crowds will be too powerful a drug for the three time candidate to resist. Instead he will fight on like the Tanzanians did despite the unevenness on the ground and then when it is too late to demand a recount or too cry foul, his opponents will grab the holy book and march comfortably for another fiver. 

Do not be fooled by crowds. 

THE MESSAGE

The FDC has had one major triumph which I have written about before, it is the idea that they championed the message of change. Now change has become the anthem of the Movement as well as Kazigo's clarion call. There is little that anyone can do to overemphasize this but the FDC must strive to show that at least in this regard, the opposition has tapped into the right vein. This is the dilemma of every unknown and upcoming personality. Because of a lack of place and position all one can do is present ideas which the bigger candidates will often pick up and repackage as their own. The underdog is often too small to be perceived as a significant player and so his enthusiasm and wit are often swallowed up by those who have learned through the passage of time to take that which is good and use it for their own benefit. 

The message is change. 

THE VOTER

If I was to find the genuine voter, I have to go to the smallest candidate in the most rural part of Uganda. I would have to interact with the smallest crowd where there is the least amount of fanfare and the least amount of cash. Part of the problem of the crowd is the problem that our vast population seems to be suffer from. The lack of jobs. It would be a very different scenario if for example the candidates were forced to visit farms where large swathes of their citizens were busy, say harvesting subsistence crops for the season or taking advantage of the rains (which are in plenty) but alas they are making quick cash and claiming to need assistance in restoring agriculture. What if for example they chose to visit industries that they themselves have established over the years. Chances are there would be no now to meet them there for a genuine conversation about how the candidature of the politician would affect their employment opportunities.

The true voter is not going to show up. 

THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

The observers are not going to show up until D-day. Which means that they are placing their Stamp of approval on a single day and claiming that it represents a whole process. This is wrong and needs to be rectified. The electoral process is what the black hole is to the universe. A lot of energy that potentially sucks everything else in. The electoral process not just election day are both one and the same machine. It has become Uganda's largest income generator and job creator. Even if no one budgets for it, we have plenty of groups that are willing to invest in it. This is not unique to us region but it has the potential of being much more destructive because we do not have as strong a base in other aspects of our economy. 

Observation should start much earlier. 

IDEOLOGY

The problem with the communism as an ideology is that in this region it sought to destroy and remove anything that had a semblance to royalty and structure and hierarchy. Even if in some regards there was an attempt (later on) to restore the monarchies in several regions, this was little more than windows dressing and the realization that in these parts culture was much too ingrained in our psyche to replace. We are often unable to gauge the effects of these changes because those who we force out are often too far removed from the new changes and voiceless in defense of their kingdoms. The new generals and change makers on the other hand then have to contend with leadership dynamics that force them to operate in a manner not too different from those they have so vehemently opposed. The monarchies fear that they are powerless to defend their people against the might of the invaders, this plays right into the hands of their foes who by now have recruited enough locals into their armed forces. Soon they are receiving medals and honors from foreign forces and wining and dining in camouflages and international capitals. 

This is essentially a politically active and living space...nurture it. 

THE CONCERN

I have not seen a larger gathering of German Made vehicles in a very long time. Old school combies, beetles and yes even the famous 

Bavarian. Kindly forgive me if I express concern and surprise about how intimately the Resistance Movement has become with a German Brand. I do accept the possibility that there are certain rights that the man who wins the war has to history (in writing it and in shaping its character), but we are not accustomed to viewing mainstream German ideas and brands with Resistance! This is why if history is also false in this regard, the resistance movement cannot afford to split and splinter in the manner in which it has in the last few decades. 

Revisit the resistance space. 

REGIONAL GRIEVANCES

We were told that when push comes to shove, fearful voters will tend to congregate and aggregate along tribal lines. Two regions ok three have remained largely untouched and underdeveloped in the last few years. Busoga, Iteso and greater northern Uganda. One has to commend the government for ministries that were established to attempt to direct more attention to these regions. But it is clear that a decent number of people associate leadership with visibility in the top political space. Busoga has remained nostalgic given some of the massive developments that were seen prior to the drive towards independence. In an attempt to revive the economy, government requested the return of the Asians who in a large part were said to have been part of this development. The question is how far back would you go? Would you also invite the British and undo the work of independence movement? Is there nothing redemptive in Idi Amin's leadership and his move to place Africans at the core of Ugandan Business? 

Act locally. 

The week that was

Protect the prophet and his mantle. 

This week i heard an interesting message from the Anglican camp in which the Archbishop warned the church and its leaders against misusing their office and their authority. There was a danger, he said of loosing the prophetic voice- which was going to be crucial in establishing the place and position of the church of God in this part of the political dispensation.  

The folded arms of an Eastern Uganda Stalwart

Perhaps I was reading a little too much from all if this. But during some of the speeches post elections in the Forum for Democratic Change, there was a image of Nandala Mafabi hands folded, watching the dialogues and speeches from both Col. Kizza Besigye and Gen. Mugisha Muntu. It is too great a task to read his mind. But there are possibilities that in our culturally sensitive region much of his thoughts were wandering about the previous race for the top seat in the FDC. This as you remember took place between the Eastern stalwart and his colleague with proven military experience. 

The attempt to shift the centre of political gravity

Camp Kazigo made some interesting attempts to move the battle to the hills of Bugisu. In his mind, he was trying to take the nation back to a point where he and his colleagues had began some major parts of their battle for the 'liberation' of the country...and I do use that term loosely. He was allowed to move unhindered perhaps with a view of testing the waters to see how much of a pull he would be able to effect. Critics later on would state that the bulk of the attendees were actually main stream opposition groups who would have showed up regardless of who was making the grand appearance. 

Activism versus Structure 

The elections took place after some very interesting political debates managed well by Charles Mwanguhya Mpagi and brought to the citizens courtesy of NTV and a host of Non Governmental Organizations. 

On the whole we could argue that the delegates chose the confrontational style of the previous party president over the cool and collected General. Sandwiched between the two was the man from Bugisu waiting patiently for an opportunity to make his mark on the democratic space but probably feeling crowded out by the western conference. 

Generational challenges and the resistance movement 

So local experts began to talk about what they referred to as a battle between the old guard and the young Turks. Newbies who are itching for an opportunity to take the wheel. In the meantime the proverbial queue (references were made to this when the Blue eyed boy-Kazigo began to think and act as Big Hat's Successor) was brought back to our memory. And so the young ones were also accused of trying to skip the queue. 

Leadership and covering-a crisis in camp Balokole?

So there was a battle that spilled over into some of our tabloids. In my view it is a struggle regarding growth, leadership and methods. Someone begins to grow and his growth affects all those around him. The son begins to rise and his development seems to counter the productivity of his peers. At the heart of this battle is a concern over the registration of the church and parachurch groups. 

Does any organization have the right to register churches that are not in the mainstream (Catholic, Anglican, Lutheran, Orthodox) under any banner other than the Spiritual Banner and the direct lordship of Jesus Christ? 

Is it fair to register churches under the same group that regulates the working and management of Non-governmental Organizations? 

To be fair to the government, we have to realize that we live in a region that is rather susceptible to cults and cultish movements. 

Because we have struggled to see the release of reports from strongholds such as Kanungu (where Kazigo has a leadership edge), it is natural that in some circle fears abound as to the effectiveness of government and its oversight over religion. 

Liberation Movements and Revolutionary Moves 

The leading opposition movement or liberation movement or rebel movement is the Lord's Resistance Army and has its roots in Northern Uganda. No other group has presented so much of a challenge to the broader narrative of the National Resistance Movement (especially with its credentials in the bush). If push comes to shove, and the ballot box loses its value and significance, there will be a resurgence of the LRA. 

There will also and we have already seen this be a rise in militias. This is not on the whole a bad thing. Because we in Africa tend to see everything American as divine, we at some point will begin to think in terms of the Second Amendment (see my  blog titled skirting the issue). Which broadly speaking was defined to help American 

Citizens to think critically about their constitution and their right to protect it. There is a huge part of ones population that needs to be involved in some form of political empowerment. In Kenya the government has revived the National Youth Service. What is really good about this is that the youth are armed not with sticks but with spades (the beating of plowshares to swords comes much later after the young people have gained an appreciation of the core income generating activities as well as the value of Agribusiness in national development. 

One of the reasons why there has been some difficulty in accepting K.B and M.M and other generals as valid opposition figures has been the inability of the People to perceive them as anything but NRM people. This is why there is always talk about Big hat and his plants or spies that are sent out to monitor opposition groups and why in some circles leadership at the top of some of the major parties has seemed to always have a western (Uganda) leaning. 

That said M7 was always smart enough to learn and use and adapt to whatever situation he came into. So he learnt from the Democratic Party, UPC as well as from colleagues and friends in Tanzania, Mozambique and even Kenya. 

The Forth Estate Comes of Age- the lady and the trump

When a historic group of un-biased observers come under attack, we have to begin to prepare from a massive seismic shift in events. News of the World-Rupert Murdoch and the possibility of more closures in the future? Extremes of one perceived estate? 

Maybe this is what causes such a flood of attention for Donal Trump. 

He came onto the scene in an age of reality TV. A time where the line between perception and truth became blurred. Experts told us that the very act of watching an event changes it's state and behavior. So we wonder how much of what we see if reality and how much how much is truth. 

I justified the Apprentice series by noting that in our day, the CEO could not leave independent of social life and media scrutiny and that therefore a series that allowed people to submit job offers in public and sit in board rooms amidst the cameras made some sense. 

And so we sat mesmerized and even took notes and dreaded those words...you are fired! 

So I wonder if in the choice of team we will have yet another event run by one of the stations in the U.S in which the most notable names in the business will compete for a chance to run the candidates 'winning' campaign. 

You cannot watch the events unfold without thinking how much of an effect this one man will have on the issue of suffrage. 

I do not know how many times I have sat on a screen watching the news and it's presentation without fearing that much of my interest was fueled by an unfortunate misuse of one genders advantage over another...at least in terms of appeal! 

Quietly I wondered if my African upbringing was at war with the American way where jocks and cheerleaders rule the day and not geeks. But there were troubling undertones and fears that many geeks would have their way in an age of vengeance and at a time when gun laws and rock music and game consoles were running the show. 

But I digress. 

The point is for some unfortunate reason I was paying more attention to pretty presenters than truthful ones and believing that perhaps truth and beauty had signed a deal. 

While presenters sat shifting nervously to conceal certain parts their anatomy while trying to give their analysis I felt constantly that they were being betrayed. 

So a reported exchange took place between a presenter and a media mogul and she clearly stood no chance. The trump was much too skilled in getting attention and raising the ratings. 

Then I remembered that perhaps the most valuable thing in a woman's psyche apart the nurturing instinct is her look. Standing before her and running for the top job was the man who has managed over the years to put a bulk of his finance behind one of the most important dates in the Female Calender-Miss Universe! 

I cannot be blamed for thinking at least in this respect that this man is a formidable foe. If not for the presidency but for perceptions of femininity in general. 

Lying Low

We were sitting for the final art exam after three vigorous years of training. 

The British system and it's methods of testing was designed to test your skills but also your ability to follow instructions. If I remember correctly the question was about the use of number 1-9 to create a abstract piece (painting). 

There were students three types of students. Those who were skilled and who needed very little practice to prove so. Then there were those who would be forced to follow the instructions a little more in addition to their limited skills. Then there was a group who struggle in the background and  through the term only to emerge and flourish at the end as victors. 

My friend M was part of the last group. He walked into the room and used the energy of the rest of the students to create something good causing him to ace the exam as one of the few top final results. 

I too was fortunate because I followed the instructions and combined that with some skill and training. 

The race of the white house could produce someone from the last category. 

A candidate that is smart enough not too say too much while using the energy of those who are front runners in the race to create a last minute strategy and plan. In the previous post we alluded to this while talking about pace setters. Migratory birds use formations to ensure that they use a limited amount of energy to fly long distances. Candidates that are known can suffer much more attack precisely because they draw attention to themselves. But the choice to fly low can prove disastrous in campaigns that call for so much visibility. 

We have not seen too much of the social media drive that fueled B.H.O's drive for the presidency or the involvement of young people, nor have we seen the massive voter registration forces that reignited interest in the electoral process for black minorities. 

What we see though is a gathering storm that will focus our attention south of the Mason Dixon line and at the borders predominantly affecting hispanic minorities-an interesting and growing voter block. 

We have also seen concerns about voter registration rules for Identification affecting African Americans as well as fall out from the Katrina Disaster that has brought about marked shift in numbers (100,000 black residents from affected areas have not returned ) ten years after the disaster. 

So the deal with Cuba is important because it helps generate much needed income flow but critically, it has alienated some of the countries historic local allies and dissidents. But also changed the dynamics of immigration, economics and trade.

You could argue that the deal with Cuba has done what some believe could happen if the debate to legalize medical marijuana in states such as Colorado is carried through causing a decline in the narcotics trade south of the Rio Grande. 

The low lying candidate therefore needs to have the pulse of the people. 

He/ she needs to know what the numbers are on immigration and the affects of the much needed reform on agriculture and trade in the southern states. 

He/she needs to have the numbers regarding movement and migration in disaster prone areas and implications of these movements on voting. 

He/she needs to know the complexities of race relations in mid-western states and the corresponding legislation that deal with the same. 

He/she needs to be able to harness new media tools for an emerging generation but also balance these with old school town hall meetings for older more influential groups. 

Pacesetters and front runners

In a season when athletes are taking centre stage, I cannot help but think about the five and ten thousand meter races. These metes often have to be governed by pacesetters. These are usually experienced but retired runners who are paid to make sure that the participants stay within a time frame. These times are flashed across the screen and at specific points in the race to make sure that the runners can achieve goals and if need be break records. 

I think this is a fitting description for the race to the white house as it stands. There have been few front runners who have sailed right through the initial party nominations all the way to the 'finals' in most cases, were shielded by the rest (like migratory birds in flying in formation) only to emerge towards the end to achieve the victory. 

So while encouraged by the appearances and attention drawn by Hillary Clinton on the democratic side and Donald Trump on the republican side, there is a possibility that all they are doing is setting the pace for the rest of the runners. 

It is also interesting to note that a ten year anniversary of the Katrina 

disaster (a hurricane that ripped through the State State of Louisiana and possibly turned the tide of the U.S public opinion) has brought about the appearance of the former presidents club of Bill Clinton (D) and George Walker Bush (R). Strategic because both pulled off a controversial eight year terms and both are bound to support the bids by close family members Jeb Bush (R) and Hillary Clinton (D). 

The pacesetters have therefore helped bring certain issues to the fore. 

While the end of the first of two presidential terms is often useful in creating some breathing room, it also presents a shift of thinking focusing on legacy. The battles to cripple the presidency (using shut downs and jerry-mandering) were a mark of these eight years and have been further amplified by determinations by the bulk of the republican candidates (aspirants) to reverse by decree many of this current presidents rulings. 

So the return to Louisiana is significant because it involves the passage back in time where the Republicans can attempt to reclaim their southern territory (bible belt) while the democrats prove their worth and demonstrate to the people in the south that the choice of change was the right decision. In my view, both parties being political animals have to defend their claims using some of the most valuable pieces in their arsenal. 

But while this is significant, these are not the issues at the centre of race as it stands and as presented by the media. 

But this weeks appearances of the 'former presidents club' have placed these two presidents into part of the pacesetter groups if only vicariously. 

We have not engaged directly with Hillary Clinton but she seems to have benefitted from the media attention...or at least she should try to. Maybe a key to this race for her campaign will be in returning to the battle between herself and Barack Hussein Obama and sifting through the noise to see why his version of change was more preferable to her version of the same. Him being an African American and her being a woman (both beneficiaries of constitutional amendments for civil rights and suffrage). 

My guess is that his subscription to the change message worked both against the republicans (and his views regarding their failures) as well as against his democratic foe (who by being in the white house for eight years-albeit as wife, was also viewed as being part of the establishment). 

The battle for the nomination is complex enough for party members and at some point the needs of the whole must be sacrificed for the one. Which is why the entrance of 16 participants in the republican race is such a challenge to call. 

Part of the battle could end up being for the house and for the senate especially if the white house is offered on the altar of sacrifice. But the brutality of coalitions is something few of us want to see. 

Immigration, Race relations in general, The economy, U.S foreign policy, Gun control. 

Regional cooperation and freedoms?

Wondering about the implications of regional cooperation on freedoms in general.

I wrote all of this because as I have mentioned before, there seems to be a replication of ideas in this region by NGOs, Opposition Parties as well as Civil Society Groups. In one of the article I mentioned how Strikes of medical personnel and teachers in Uganda, were being replicated by colleagues in Kenya and Tanzania. I also mentioned how advocacy campaigns by local opposition groups were also finding their way into certain sections of Tanzania (Activists for Change-A4C). Government too was in on the game and had began to introduce complex and costly legislative rules that would make it harder for journalists especially those with an investigative lens to challenge leaders (Kenya). In addition to this back in the home space I also found that a law had been introduced that was designed to make it hard of large gatherings to occur and at least give the government a head start in nipping in the bud any attempts to opposition groups to achieve momentum (public order management bill). 

While these occurrences took place quite a while back, we had a visit from BHO. Soon after that another left handed head of state showed up. His trip was interesting because he addressed parliament and met some important business leaders. But he also took a few jabs at the Opposition. 

His position back at home is complex and he is running government with a coalition (predominantly tribal in nature feeding off of Kenya's strange tendency to coagulate around its regional and language groups). 

In what I have referred to as schizophrenic-like foreign policy responses that pit one branch of government against another, we had no mention of the "choices have consequences" message of the assistant to the secretary of state for African Affairs J.C. 

Instead lawns were mowed and lectures were delivered to African Presidents.

But it was good to see that our man could hold his own against the great eagle and the star spangled banner (nothing against either). And as I have stated in another tweet, it was also good to see the younger man being affirmed by Kenya's second president (a trained teacher) as well as the country's third (an accomplished Economist). 

I was not certain what to make of the message delivered to the Uganda's Opposition. My concern was that the little space that was left was shrinking and that any hope of receiving assistance from Neighboring countries was suddenly vanishing. If this works against the Opposition for now, it will work against the leaders in the future. Because markets are designed around safety the time will come (if the pan African dream is realized) when the presidents will find themselves demoted to senators and their nations to states as the African Union takes shape merging the vast size and potential of our economies with some form of government. The question is where will we place our capital. 

Over to you!