The American debates as we heard them.

The crowds of republicans are gone including those who I thought would make more formidable foes to a democratic party in search of another term. Cannot help but wonder if a Biden Bid would have made more sense. I suggested before that a look into a previous battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rick Lazio would have been helpful in creating a strategy for the Republican Candidate. I hope you listened. In the meantime there were plenty of metaphors and useful insights from election watchers of days past that will help inform or at least add to this web log. 

A boxing match. 

If this was a match then it was a nasty fight. All civility was lost after about twenty minutes in the ring. Ears were bitten and blood was spilled. We did not hear as much as we needed to hear about the very important issues. What we heard was an exchange in which both candidates sought to soil each other. One candidate seemed or have been more resigned to their position and was therefore more keen to prove that their adversary was just as soiled if not more. As the days have passed the media seems to have moved in with more stories helping buttress the real estate guru in his position-where he firmly claims to be on the receiving end of mainstream media and its biases. This while managing to attract free advertising and attention from a media that others have had to send gazillions for coverage and ads. 

Body switches. 

It was not clear who was who. At some point it felt like the two candidates had switched bodies. But this is politics. You have to have the ability to blow smoke out of both sides of your neck. You have to depend on short term memory of those who matter while pushing away the long term memory of those who have the power of influence. We have has shift in directions that have made us look like colonies of the USSR as we have championed causes closer to socialism and communism that were previously unimaginable. Try this in the early and late fifties and you would have faced the same challenges as MacArthur? 

But these are challenges that are unique to our generation with its massive young and tech savvy populations with movements such as black lives matter, the 99 percent as well as the tea party making a comeback or at least their presence known. 

Sounds and sights? 

Other insisted that it was better to hear the debates than watch them. This was decided for me when my provider decided to pull the plug at 3:30 AM right after I had made myself comfortable in preparation for debate night. So I listened courtesy of the BBC. The same media group took quite al to of criticism for not availing it's massive crowds the full 90 minute debate instead giving 30 minute chunks. So I listed to sniffles which were later explained away as microphone sabotage. As can be expected the female card was used extensively to Mrs. Clinton's advantage. We heard some evidence of the Trump charm, "...i want you to be comfortable". 

Junior High or Kinder? 

We expected a little more about what we in these parts think are very important issues. The army and veterans issues, health care, retirement, job creation, race issues and challenges, immigration reform, foreign policy, economics with an emphasis on international trade, Canada, Mexico and South America, The Drug Trade. Instead we got something similar to what would take place in a class room between two young children where they for a moment forgot the issues and hand and instead went after each other on things as simple as hairstyle and who was dating who and cheating on who. 

Dealing with the Bear-both economically (markets) and politically.

Here are a few thoughts that you should think about as you prepare for your elections. We are accustomed to conventional king makers. But i think it is time we seriously started thinking about a resurgent soviet union.

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First a story. A young lady shows up with a CCCP Branded shirt and an American quickly wonders how much success to expect at the immigration office.

My response? Where does the former president (Gorbachev) of the Soviet Union live? California off course. What about the Master Chess player (Kasparov)? The U.S.A of course.

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These are the perils of democracy or perhaps the positives and negatives aspects of democracy. On one hand you have to offer asylum to those who are in distress at the risk of welcoming those who are foes. There is also the possibility that citizens will in the future be challenged when war forces their host county to engage in hostile acts. Ask the Japanese about the internment camps. With all this in my it is still not very simple deciding who or what really constitutes of a true citizen. The citizenship tests and the vows notwithstanding!

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Another story. There is a lady who gave a presentation for the centre for policy studies in Ottawa. She was trying to make a case for President Putin as a wrestler (in strategy and thinking) and not a chess player.
A shorter closer contact sport with a few rounds as opposed to a longer drawn out engagement between two adversaries.

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So in the event of an engagement with the Russians, how do you think the most prominent citizens would behave? How quickly can you put into action your sleeper agents? There is plenty of fodder in Hollywood about this Salt is just one example. Where an agent deep in the agency and close to the president attempts to bring about a chaotic situation by 'engaging' a Russian prime minister.

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Another story of note is the rise in whistle blowing that has really damaged U.S relations. Most of what has been done was done in the Interest of Pubic good but at the cost of American Intelligence. And where are these groups turning for solace? Well Russia (Snowden) and South America (Asange).

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The fourth is a story that has to do with a shift in American thinking that brought about an interest in Socialism. This can be reflected in the popularity that brought Bernie Sanders to the fore and that forced an uneasy alliance with Hillary Clinton. The Black Lives Matter Movement, the 99 Percent (occupy movement), and in part the tea party. Are all clusters that reflect the same sentiments and that are bringing about unimaginable conversation about class distinction in a capitalist stronghold.

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Barack Obama "America is too strong to destroy from outside..." the question is if you were to destroy it from within what would you do?

I have sometimes argued that the the series 24 prepared us for a black presidency albeit a troublesome one. Where the protagonist was given the arduous task of protecting a black president from California from agents in the white house who were using his military past to haunt and attack him. Could this be our Gina Davis Moment?

But that is closer to fiction than fact.

If there are any lessons to learn one of these must be never to use your power in office (presidential roasts) and your humor to respond too strongly to an opponent. This has been the fuel in Trumps engine. And it has roared on. 
Perhaps we have also learned something about what it means to walk the fine line across the political divide and create activity and conversations between historical foes. We have also seen how crippling life can get when the hatred for the executive is at its peak and what it means to be entrenched in a system that is rigged for failure and booby trapped with all sorts of neat little gadgets.

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Now the machine rages on and we are already getting troubling subliminal ideas about the possibilities of a rigged vote and that in the Bastion of Democracy. Last time this happened, we invited the Supreme Court of the United States into the picture while we counted chads and effectively handed the presidency back to the Texas Ranger. 
So are we being prepared to believe that the Opinion Polls are going to be the only true factor to decide on the fairness of the U.S election?

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The fifth story has to do with the Brexit and it's effects on Europe Economically, Politically and most importantly Militarily at least in decision regarding Engagement with Russians and by extension NATO.

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This might be good news for the Russians but it might be drawing us closer to the edge as the British pull out of their deals with China.

All this as the Russians begin to assert their authority in the break away republics.

Also in the news is the plan to talk to the Turks a current no go zone for the Americans even if to be fair POTUS, has pardoned a fair measure of Turkey diner on historical thanksgiving celebrations. How the Russians negotiate that space will prove interesting

A three point five estate (in the press) and a fully fledged fifth estate (in the citizenry).

It is my belief that the week that past had helped shape and at least in some regard direct the state of the press in the country. 

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Listening to the radio this week I came across a story about a very disappointed rural group that was complaining about the services 
of their local hospital. Nothing too strange here except that the lady that delivered the report (or at least the witness-whistle blower) was a very eloquent local woman who had had a little too much of her fill of the cup. Her words came flowing and soon our fountain of honor drove to the location for some sanitation work. So a few heads rolled and some doctors were sacked (no the sacks in this case were not carrying anyone's pay) we are a little dry on the additional finance that is why we are hoping that a bail out will help fill our piggy banks. 
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There is a saying here that helps when making judgement. "Tosala Gwa Kawala Nga tonasala Gwa Kalenzi", loosely translated meaning, "do not judge in favor of the boy before you listen to the girl". This we all failed to do and the lynch mob simply cheered while the head of state flexed his muscle. I hope that this was some kind of game between the locals and doctors but I fear it was not. The doctors and our and citizens got to see their hero, but their true heroes are gone and alienated. Yes the fifth estate is alive at least in from of the whistle blowing citizenry but the press as we know it is still wanting, in not giving enough of a voice to the few doctors we have left in the country-and that in the rural areas. So we have called it not the fourth but the three and a half estate. 
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You have to be a very confident citizenry to pass judgement on your health care providers. Now you have two problems, you to only do not have enough drugs, you do not have people to help you administer them. Even if you can change the circumstances to hire new doctors, you will forever be guilty of judging people who took a hypocrites oath. I also expect you to have problems in two other areas. I expect some concern in your schools with your teachers and schools as well as your police and security agencies. Something is wrong because ideally you should have been able to sit with your local leaders at least at LC 1 level to talk about the problems in your village. Should that have failed you should have been able to take it a little further up. Health issues are often linked to education issues which also fold right into secuity issues. I think that your injections will hurt a little. The doctor will work on you well because that is his vow but it will hurt him a lot to think that you did not trust him enough to approach him with the problem. 
"Omusawo Omunyomye Ate nomulopa nomuswaza", you have despised and embarrassed the doctor. 
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So in the future I hope that you will try to talk about your security challenges as well as those in education. I hope that once in a while you will honor those who work in your area with little gifts like food from your gardens and small gifts just to let them know you appreciate their work. Of you can and if they are willing I hope that you will have courage to confront them. It shows respect and love and a willingness to help those who you honestly believe can do Better. This will increase your respect one for another. 
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And that was the week that was.

Making sense of Europe Challenges in 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

The first word we will define is Austerity. 

1. Severity or plainness: severity of discipline, regime, expression, or design

2. Economy pressure: a saving, economy, act of self-denial, especially in respect of something regarded as a luxury

3. ECONOMICS enforced thrift: thrift imposed as Government policy, with restricted access to or availability of consumer goods. (1)

Fig Tree Blossoms in 1960 Africa. 

All these changes took place a vacuum of spaces created predominantly in Europe's back yard and in the hands of previous colonial masters who had become accustomed to living off foreign governments in old colonies. A flurry of requests for independence had also characterized life In the 1960 also had unexpected results on an economy that was being driven by Foreign labor, commodities much like what had happened previously in the Americas and in the U.S itself when the North and South were forced to contend with each other on the questions of slavery and the benefits of human labor in the predominantly agrarian south. Island nations that were producing spices, coffee, cotton, sugar were also bound to suffer if these changes were implemented much too quickly. Trace the path of European decline in the seventies and you will find former colonial giants of shipping and trade beginning to feel the pinch of a loss of major services. 

Europe and Austerity in the 1970s.

Marshall the 'Troops'

These marked changes in the economies of Europe after the second world war could be traced back to the Marshall plan and the monies that was pumped into the struggling economies of the day to inject some much need growth and redevelopment in the war-devastated economies. But given what we have learnt about Foreign led growth and the consequent effects of the same on struggling economies maybe the decline of the European economies after yet another war was a sign that external investment cannot be viewed as a long term method of driving true sustainable growth.  

Commodities and the rise of Regional Powers. 

Most of the challenges that are mentioned in regards to Europe in the seventies hinge on the energy crisis, most particularly the price of oil, which had quadrupled since the Middle East war of 1973. The result was projections of double digit inflation for at least a decade in Europe. great. Great Britain was facing price rises o 17%, Italy was dealing with rises of 20% and Spain and Portugal were dealing with upwards of 30% price increases. Measures like a freeze in prices and wages had limited success. 

Premier Raymond Barre succeed in stabilizing the franc and reducing the deficit but the latter remained high and growth slowed and unemployment did not decrease. Barre was attacked both by Socialists and Communists on the left and by Gaullist followers of premier Jaques Chirac on the right. 

The Rise of the Foreign Banks and their Bailouts

Austerity plans were adopted by Great Britain ($3.9 Billion), Spain, Italy ($500 million from the IMF and $500 million from EEC) and Portugal ($49million had been given in April of that year to offset a deficit of $1 billion) . These plans had conditions that were attached to them with large loans from the International Monetary Fund. As discussed in the previous post on Bubbles, the discussion around loans further raised fears of the effects on local economies that infused capital from outside would affect economic sovereignty ad governments freedom of action. 

New Tactics for Modern forms of Economic Warfare

Several  major changes occurred firstly, Growth rates slowed in Europe (3%) while the rates of growth for the U.S and Japan rose (expansion rate 5%). Rapid growth and austerity are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Secondly, foreign investment in Europe went to other economies (investment from oil rich states). 

Thirdly, wages rose as a natural effect of inflation and a decline in productivity. Fourthly, the cost of European goods for export was expensive bringing about a trade imbalance 

Revival of Capitalist Communist Debates and Thinkers

Fifthly, unemployment.  In countries that had strong leanings toward communism and socialism or those who sought to marry different economic tendencies the natural result of unemployment was the return and revival of trade unions and workers movements the start of uneasy debates between capitalist thinkers and their marxist opposites. 

It was these conditions that brought about a major shift to the left, which is also common in the present day, the rise of the Iron Lady an her assault against the Trade Unions in the U.K, the trio of Reagan, Gorbachev and Thatcher, as wells as pressure on the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall. (3b)

Europe and Austerity in the 1990s.

Sweden-a case for mixed economies. 

For a long while (since the 1930s) it seems as though the decision of the Swedes to marry two systems of economic development provided some insulation from economic challenges that confronted other European Countries. This they did by splitting their economy into a 'local' and and 'an other'. The local was made up of cooperatives and unions that managed key aspects of their economy and development. They ensured through these groups that simple commodities were transformed and maximized to benefit locals. The energy then invested in the development of these local industries was then pumped into controlled Foreign exports whose profits were returned to members of the same. This model was affected by a recession in the 1990s. The result was a drop in employment and a budget deficit. The government decided to respond using some austerity measures which included tax reform, reductions in civil service employment, cuts in social-welfare programs and partial privatization of some state owned enterprises( postal services, telecommunications and railroad transport). The result was a reduction in the public sector, a restoration of confidence in the Swedish economy and an economic recovery that slowed the economic downturn of 2001. (2)

Italy-Politics, Religion, Economics and their effects on Austerity

In 1995 Lamberto Dini, Berlusconi's treasury minister, was appointed prime minister to lead a politically neutral transitional Government. There was uncontrolled public expenditure, political corruption, an unproductive public sector all of which contributed to the budget deficit and a rising national debt. Dini's response was to pass an austerity budget, to reform election system, state pension system and to enact rules that controlled political access to TV. He resigned in January 1996 but continued in office until April. 

Elections in that year brought the communists into power for the first time in Italy's history as a republic. Thus the country began its shift to the centre-left. Also notable during this time was an attempt toward separation from a more 'productive' north which failed to win popular support when the idea was floated in the election. 

The national election brought into power 56 year old Romano Prodi (a mix of economics and religion) economist and former state conglomerate. He defeated the centre-right leader and media magnate Silvio Berloscuni former prime minister. Perhaps this time around the effects on Media that had been  attempted a few years before by Lamberto Dini would now gain fresh momentum. 

It was also another time of firsts in which Italy's evolving political system had generated two opposing major candidates for prime minister before citizen voted. 

Unable to win a majority an Olive Tree coalition was formed which brought in a formerly communist party the PDS (democratic party of the left) which had given up Marxism after the fall of the Berlin wall resulting in 

loss of its core group from the Reformed Communists. Their 21% added to the 35% of the original bloc. The new government attracted other prominent leftists like Massimo D'Alema (party secretary), Walter Veltroni (PDS second in command), Georgio Napolitano (Interior Minister) and Vincenzo Visco (Finance Minister), Lamberto Dini(former prime minster was appointed Foreign Minister), Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (former premier and political independent become treasury minister), and Antonio Di Pietro (former Star prosecutor who headed operation clean hands investigation was appointed Minister of Public Works but later resigned after charges of abuse of office were brought against him). 

Prodi wanted to work on public finances (a criteria for joining the European Monetary Union),deal with the threats of succession by the Northern league leader (Umberto Bossi), reform of the constitution along federalist lines as well as the creation of a winner takes all voting system (to replace the proportional representational system). 

Of all the challenges mentioned above the only external challenge that would affect Italy's future was that of the Monetary Union. The rest of the issues strictly speaking we're internal, with hybrids such as the corruption cases or trials off terrorism suspects (Majed Youssef al Molqi) that affected the perception of the Americans on the Italian Justice System (Giovanni Brusca, Giovanni Falcone). 

The appointments were important because they helped determine what the coalition government would focus on in the years to come because on the whole, the men that were placed in positions of power were all major pieces in the political 'games' that characterized the functions of the the nation in the years previous. It is no wonder that Berlusconi was castigated and later tried in connection to kickbacks to tax inspectors of his Fininvest media-to-retail conglomerate (possibly a consequence of the over exertion of his media power in the past and present-the present bribery charges notwithstanding). (4)

1. Encarta Dictionary

2. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

3. Collier's Year Book (for events of 1997). Monthly updates in Encarta Yearbook). 

3b. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

4. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

Key Words: Austerity, Debt, Credit Rating. 

Both this article and the previous one have only dealt with two issues on a regional basis with some more I depth coverage of some European countries like Italy. The responses used my most countries and their Central Banks are universal. 

Here is what I found out about economic bubbles.

To begin with, the idea of a bubble is a rapid economic expansion (Boom) followed by an economic explosion (burst). You cannot talk about bubbles without coming across three major ideas or themes. Banks, Markets and people (investors). 

Globalization and Regionalism (1)

When you study or combine all this with the idea of globalization, you can see how complex or interested the problem of economic bubbles becomes. Under the subject of Globalization, you will find three primary institutions the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. These groups usually can have an effect on the local economy by bringing in in unexpected change in the economic structure of the government. A loan for example can bring about the illusion of growth and expansion at a time when the reality Is that the economy is slowing down. This perception amongst locals can then be exploited by those who may be partners say in Construction or roads. As a result cement, steel, tar (by products of petroleum) may increase in price. So here you see the banks (International) having an effect on the markets which also cause an effect with people. 

The effects described above all take place on the global level. On the other hand though, there can be effects that take place on a Regional Level. The dynamics are the same in this case, governments almost everywhere have to deal with the results of agreements under which these deals or loans or bail outs are administered. Secondly, many of these agreements are signed in the interests of larger groups as opposed to individuals or the grass roots if you like. In current affairs you can see how tension is beginning to build between the Americans on one hand and the Chinese on another. In this example the Americans would like to benefit from selling certain chicken products to their Asian counterparts. The Chinese on the other hand have responded using subsidies for their local produce. What this does is make it almost impossible for the American Business people to thrive in the Chinese Environment. You could argue that the Americans have been fed some of their own medicine given some of their practices in Island Nations suck as Haiti which receive Rice from America at almost no cost at the detriment of their own local markets. 

The Rise of new Powers (Colonialism and Hegemony) (2)

The British were making their mark on the world and were rapidly expanding. Naturally there was a need to grow and extend territory. Those who owned ships were therefore able to exert an unequal effect on the markets for timber, cotton, men, sugar, spices. Naturally promises could therefore be made and speculation based on the forecasts of growth. Because certain members of the monarchy maintained rights over the major companies back in the day, these small groups were able to concentrate vast amounts of wealth around them. These ideas mirror some of the developments in modern days. The transfer of power from one economic power to another and changes in shipping that favor large companies that can transport good as well as oils and naturally those who can control these routes using military means. A study of the U.S and China and other giants of shipping and trade can provide more useful information.  In addition to this the effect of a transfer of labor and the monies that are recovered and sent back to poor nations can also have a skewed effect on the economy. 

The U.S (Black Friday and Black Tuesday) (3)

The U.S had two major events the first in Friday 24th September 1869 was brought about by speculation on the price of Gold. A small group (James Fisk and Jay Gould) of investors bought so much Gold and then made the attempt to corner the market on the same. In the current day you could equate this to the current effect that we have seen with the price of oil and the influence of a specific group (OPEC) on this price. The Saudi for example were producing so much of it that they would sit by for years with a knowledge that no matter how low the price of the commodity got, they would still have a substantial amount of money in their reserves. You can expect to see much more activity in this regard especially as new power rise and attempt to join the exclusive club of oil producers. 

The second event (Black Tuesday)(4) was caused when high tariffs on imported goods were combined with foreign loans and the attempt to export goods. This could not be sustained because the countries that were trading with the Americans could not afford to pay off the loans while at the same time struggling to deal with the challenge of exporting goods to the U.S under such high tariffs. The effect of these initial practices was the growth a wealthy class. The trouble with this rise that it was based on loans that could not be sustained. In a sense the Americans though their loans were financing their own local markets and depending on the the foreign governments to pay for these practices. 

A large amount of people began to believe in the illusion of wealth that had been created by few 'wealthy' people. The result was investment in over-valued stocks. The crash that followed had effects on interrelated areas of the economy where wealth was unevenly distributed, where agriculture has been 'abandoned in favor of other industries and in banks that had been under supervised. 

The U.S-The effect of war on an Economy (5)

The effects of war can be internal or external. 

The first effect if not watched can be the un-natural push for one means or method of generating revenue for the economy at the expense of all the others. Maybe this is part of the warning that was given by the Head of State (David Dwight Eisenhower) at the time when he warned the American to beware of the military industrial complex.

On the external front South Vietnam benefitted from the kind of growth that can be generated in a time of war. Industries driven by the need for weaponry and related sub-economies like transportation, infrastructure, communications. As a result one group of the populace benefitted and was able to achieve a high standard of living. Those closely related to the same group also benefitted but on the whole the country was struggling. 

These issues can be extended in peace time to countries that thrive in dictatorships where small groups of well connected individuals enjoy the limited resources in a given country while many others in the periphery suffer. 

The Asian Tigers. (6)

A few economies (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea) opened up by adopting market friendly practices. This caused a rise in investment by foreign investors. Massive drives toward construction and infrastructure then followed. But because many of these practices were not driven internally by policies aimed at arming people with knowledge and skills, growth and was soon followed by a collapse. Many of these major projects were not built for locals but for the foreigners and few locals who had had the benefit of an international Education sufficient enough to prepare them to run these institutions on behalf of the 

Larger foreign corporations to which they were subservient. 

The other effect was mentioned before under the subject of regional effects where one economy by virtue of its size influences the workings of other smaller economies in the area. This is the case with Japan and could be the case with China. Closer home bastions of stability such as Kenya could have detrimental effects in the region were they to suffer economically. It is no wander that there have been attempts to move new developments towards the restorations of the standard Gauge Railway have been moved in favor of a more stable looking Tanzanian route as opposed to the Kenyan one. 

The Technology Bubble. (7)

The most interesting note about this technology bubble is that the notable survivors of the fall are our current giants even of some of them are now floundering. On the local scene we wonder how long the talk about application development and mobile technology will last in Uganda as it begins to wane in the U.S and as many innovators throng into Europe. In addition to this, we can see how many economies (France) are beginning to question Foreign practices of tax evasion and clamping down on companies such as google. Perhaps one of the tools that will be responsible for part of this decline will be International law and international trading agreements which in a large part have managed to constrict the likes of Microsoft and Apple and have continued to mitigate between various other groups struggling to drive innovation while protecting trade marks and patents.  

(1) Microsoft Student 2008 Edition DVD and the specific section mentioned above was developed from the work of Tabb William K. 

(2) Microsoft Student 2008 DVD and are part of the contribution given by Weisser, Henry G. And Kashlansky, Mark. 

(3) "Black Friday" Microsoft Student 2008 DVD Redmond WA Microsoft Corporation.  

(4) "Black Tuesday" Microsoft Student 2008 DVD Redmond WA Microsoft Corporation.  McElvaine, Robert 'Great Depression of the United States'.

(5) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

(6) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

(7) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

The second debate

Yes the Election seems to be long past...and with that the much anticipated debate. So this is what we think are the highlights.

The crowning moment 

We got yet another dose of the King's poetry-and yes for him the debate was the thing. He was able to watch as the president attended the three hour do. After years in the judiciary as well as some translation work for the bible society he looked visibly exhausted but glad. He even made some mention about the possibility of overseeing another similar bout this time around 2021? 

Language matters 

Interesting to note as three prominent military men (Gen Biraro, Gen 

Yoweri Museveni and Colonel Warren Kizza Besigye) made their way onto the stage and got comfortable. One of the moderators-a lecturer at the Ivory Tower made clear what the 'rules of engagement were'. "Oh no," Said I, "that is a military term". And so in my view we said goodbye to level ground. This was going to be battle field and no one was going to take any prisoners. Events which manage to get the attention of a functioning head of state in the African Environment, can be overwhelming. Security at the Serena was also officially handed to the special forces group further sealing the fate of the participants. The Americans are a little different. The moment you begin to carry the scent of the presidency, they assign you a group of secret agents who begin to think of you in terms of the oval office-complete with code names and Black Chevy Suburbans! 

Seating arrangements 

The president was assigned a seat on the far end of the stage and was provided a buffer (Maureen Kyalya). She in a sense was tasked the responsibility of taking some heat on behalf of the president. The rest of the arrangements were pretty much the same as the first debate although this time around the empty seat was taken.

Over compensation 

The presence of the head of state was welcome by many who did not wish to see him come across as weak and fearful. His minders had made sure that most of the hostile ground was cleared. What the president therefore had was a touch of sympathy (which he used to the max). He began well with historical references a la Kyalya (in the first debate). But soon and with subsequent questions he appeared perturbed and agitated when accusations came flying in from opposition circles. He was able to take advantage of the time factor as many of the other participants had mentioned further opening the way for a format that suited his style. In the meantime there was an expression from Dr. Kizza Besigye who was now cornered into taking a more calm tone that his usual confrontational demeanor. 

Preemptive strikes 

To give the president much more leverage, his minders took what we would like to refer to as a preemptive strike. They made sure that Shaka Saali a prominent international voice in the American Media was silenced long before the debate. This they did by questioning his motives and mining through an archive of his older material to convince the president that he would not be a fair panelist. In a sense the 'drones' had done their work so that the 'ground troops would have an easier time getting those boots on the ground'. This gave the General much more leverage with the crowd. Shaka Ssali simply played it smart and just gave them what they asked for. He simply represented his brand with the words "get better not bitter" as well as his characteristic "I am deeply humbled and profoundly honored"

Late entries and local humor

Joseph Mabirizi arrived late but manage to grab the attention of the crowd by stating that the president is usually supposed to arrive late. Maureen Kyalya also mentioned her willingness to give an advisory position to the former president were she to gain access to state house.