Regional cooperation and freedoms?

Wondering about the implications of regional cooperation on freedoms in general.

I wrote all of this because as I have mentioned before, there seems to be a replication of ideas in this region by NGOs, Opposition Parties as well as Civil Society Groups. In one of the article I mentioned how Strikes of medical personnel and teachers in Uganda, were being replicated by colleagues in Kenya and Tanzania. I also mentioned how advocacy campaigns by local opposition groups were also finding their way into certain sections of Tanzania (Activists for Change-A4C). Government too was in on the game and had began to introduce complex and costly legislative rules that would make it harder for journalists especially those with an investigative lens to challenge leaders (Kenya). In addition to this back in the home space I also found that a law had been introduced that was designed to make it hard of large gatherings to occur and at least give the government a head start in nipping in the bud any attempts to opposition groups to achieve momentum (public order management bill). 

While these occurrences took place quite a while back, we had a visit from BHO. Soon after that another left handed head of state showed up. His trip was interesting because he addressed parliament and met some important business leaders. But he also took a few jabs at the Opposition. 

His position back at home is complex and he is running government with a coalition (predominantly tribal in nature feeding off of Kenya's strange tendency to coagulate around its regional and language groups). 

In what I have referred to as schizophrenic-like foreign policy responses that pit one branch of government against another, we had no mention of the "choices have consequences" message of the assistant to the secretary of state for African Affairs J.C. 

Instead lawns were mowed and lectures were delivered to African Presidents.

But it was good to see that our man could hold his own against the great eagle and the star spangled banner (nothing against either). And as I have stated in another tweet, it was also good to see the younger man being affirmed by Kenya's second president (a trained teacher) as well as the country's third (an accomplished Economist). 

I was not certain what to make of the message delivered to the Uganda's Opposition. My concern was that the little space that was left was shrinking and that any hope of receiving assistance from Neighboring countries was suddenly vanishing. If this works against the Opposition for now, it will work against the leaders in the future. Because markets are designed around safety the time will come (if the pan African dream is realized) when the presidents will find themselves demoted to senators and their nations to states as the African Union takes shape merging the vast size and potential of our economies with some form of government. The question is where will we place our capital. 

Over to you!

Trouble in Camp Resistance

When we last had this discussion there was a lot of buzz in the media regarding two bulls in the proverbial kraal. The NTV news (part of the nation media group) had some award winning images where the Big Hat and the Kazigo were caught avoiding each other's gazes. Later on, much of this got a little exhausting with each trying to out do the other. 

From sources in our distinguished press as well as other groups, I chose to create a summary of my own of what I view as some key areas. I called it the battle for the western front because many of us are rather uncomfortable with yet another shift in the western region. We may welcome a change in power but in a frighteningly sectarian and tribal  region we wanted to see say a Karamoja or an Iteso rise. Like the Kenyans we were glad to see the throne return to son of the Father of the Nation but we were also itching to see what kind of difference say a Kamba, Luo, Luhya would make. 

King Makers (international).

We were curious why certain people chose to visit the U.K and why certain media houses were keen to have interviews with the top contenders (British Broadcasting Cooperation as well as Chatham 

House). What they were communicating is that there were certain circles which one had to be familiar with internationally, in order to gain any kind of access to power (all things remaining constant). 

Kings Makers (local).

Locally we identified churches (for both Catholics and Christians) as well as Muslims. The battle for these groups was bound to be much more muddy and so the simpler problem was to find access to the top which led our local leaders directly to the Holy See, to Canterbury and to the Saudis (the debate about how much Muslim power lies here is still on the table). 

Our friends who fondly refer to themselves as primates have certain challenges regarding ordination of Women as well as the controversial question of Human sexuality. But the reigns of power are still intact and 

England at least for now is still going to remain firm in its place. 

Military and police force versus sheer intelligence.

Based on what the local experts told us were saw a battle that would be fought in a characteristic manner by Big Hat. The military and it's arms would prove significant and the police too. We have no doubt that the presence of the military in parliament as well as in the Internal Affairs and the police (both headed by military men) would prove pivotal in the battle for kraal. Meanwhile Kazigo would have to refer to his expertise in the intelligence which we are told he headed for quite a while. 

The trouble with the intelligence battle for Uganda was that both Kazigo and Mr. No Regrets were both intelligence men and their decision to air out our security laundry was both unprofessional and unpatriotic (and we dare say treasonable). I am almost certain that they had their Israeli and 

Russian trainers shaking in the boots and sad to see what these students of theirs we're doing with their training. 

The foul dream of Youth 

While trouble was brewing in the resistance camp, we began to see some hope in the youth. This did not last long. Soon the hope for the future were back on the streets doing tasks that were meant for Lumpen Proletariats. Fluidity is great but a strange question would involve what kind of changes will take place if your class of schooled young people find themselves displaced from their institutions (where they are tasked with helping create policy) in preference for rowdy and often violent appearances in the streets. 

And so it became rather evident that none of these young people saw themselves as leaders but were still keen to do the task of politicking on behalf of old men. 

Borrowing from the U.S election.

We also began to see a time when our statisticians would team up with techies as was done in 2008 to take advantage of regional complexities. What would Uganda's Iowa be? What part of Uganda would represent the bible belt? Would be have swing regions (states) where would our Florida be? And so for the first time in quite a while, we were able to have some kind of census. We were also able to see the age in which the mobile phone and the number became the identity of the user. We worked slowly (with the help of a German company) towards a registration exercise. Those of us who were bound by our laws struggled through the process while those who have grown accustomed to living below the radar simply played along and questioned the legitimacy of this process. 

If people used the data well, then they would be able to predict the outcomes of an election way before any voting took place. 

It might get nasty. 

Even as we watch the progress taking place in the U.S we can see how less money will be spent on negative campaign ads. As things stand, the potential nominees are busy slinging stuff at themselves. No need to pay someone else to do that for you. The back and forth is quite entertaining. Also good to know that our billionaire buddy is an equal opportunity slinger and has not stopped at POTUS. And so we also foresee a nasty information battle that will cause the rise of the tabloids and and if played right will bring about a resignation. The only way you can win an intelligence battle is with dirt. 

Negotiation and the need to identify an Ideology.

In some of my previous posts, i mentioned the importance of identifying an underlying ideology in the effort to challenge fundamentalist groups with a view of getting them into the negotiating room. While it may be often more convenient to think of your foe as a evil the manner in which he fights you means that you will never be in a position to win against him. This is what we have come to refer to as the unconventional war.

My reference in particular was to the Boko Haram group which i argued needed to be confronted about its Educational reform ideas. Because of the insistence that Western Education was forbidden, we needed to engage them about what they felt was lacking in local education systems. In a sense we needed to force them into a different battle field-that of the mind.

Now that the aforementioned group was seeking to form union with Al Quaeda and ISIS, this need is becoming more apparent. This is significant because even if the face of modern 'resistance' was changing, these groups were also feeding on each other and benefiting from the numerous research that was available on-line and with many media houses. While some groups (especially suicide bombers) were often encouraging their recruits to prepare for virgins in heaven, Boko Haram is instead creating a heaven on earth for its fighters by providing them young brides. This is a massive and notable change in Ideology. These shifts in thinking need to be exploited and utilized.

What these groups are saying, is that some of what was conventionally expected as heaven in its rewards can now be made available on earth. This is a two edged sword and can serve to fodder or prevent some of those who before were tempted to take their lives in acts of bravery. The downside of this though is that the same African (Nigerian Group) has also started using young girls to take part in acts of violence.  

A Word about the one percent

Luke 15:4-7

What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it? And when he hath found it, he layeth it on his shoulders, rejoicing. And when he cometh home, he calleth together his friends and neighbours, saying unto them, Rejoice with me; for I have found my sheep which was lost. I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.

We recently or not so recently found out that a large portion of all global wealth was in the hands of about one percent of the worlds population. At the moment, the world as we know it is really in the U.S. as a result a movement emerged which was designed to process this uneven distribution. The occupy movement was born and chose as its epicenter, wall street (the financial capital of the world). 

The crisis of 2008 which affected banks and other financial institutions as well as housing and mortgages did much to further complicate the issues. 

A new president was in office having ridden the change wave. Previous republican governments had dealt rather poorly with internal crises in the places like Louisiana (hurricane Katrina), and Americans needed a jolt of unity and patriotism and the good old speech. So this not so new face of politics used his Chicago suave and his ability to mobilize as well as a very well oiled election machine complete with adept mathematicians to sail all the way to the top. 

The state of affairs in the country meant that in 2008, many key players remained rather insulated from the job cuts and massive closures that we're affecting their peers. In fact, many culprits simply sailed through or enjoyed the protections that power an prestige had created for them over the decades. So the president took a few jabs at this group too and made some rather bold moves to stem the power of bankers and other financial elites. 

That he met some resistance is the understatement of the decade! Even if it was not direct, amidst the cheers, the pomp and circumstance, a much more frightening piece of legislation made it through which brought about some sweeping changes in campaign financing. 

While these effects meant little for his administration, future candidates would feel the pinch in much more subtle ways. Much closer home though, the president began to deal with a loss of voter support from one of his most valuable constituents-the tech savvy youth that had driven much of his campaign. Perhaps the nostalgia was over and maybe the sweeping reforms that he had preached about were taking much too long. Soon he was back on the trail canvassing campuses and industries trying to convince the electorate that his plan was working. Some of his detractors felt that the time to campaign for office was far spent and that He needed to shift gears into 'ruling' mode. We suspect that he sensed a need to remind his core voters that the plan was working and that even in the midst of the opposition, change had come and was making progress. 

To believe that he was working alone and for himself would be foolhardy. What he was also doing was setting the pace (as does Bill Clinton) for future democratic leaders and watching to see if any presidential hopefuls would merge out of the woodwork to pick up where he had left off.

A disaster in Jersey and handshakes with Chris Christie did little to help his image within the party but provided good ground to bring to the surface consensus building across blue and red lines. 

Changes in the house and in the Senate mean that his powers in negotiation have been tested but this has not prevented him from pushing for change in Health, Trade, Immigration and broadly speaking in the Military.

What the tea party and the occupy movement chose to do with some of the capital that they gained a few years ago remains to be seen. 

What we can now see though is the emergence of a few prominent campaign agenda issues that in my view will shape the path for some time to come. Gun control, Race, Religion and Energy. 

That FLOTUS has gained much from these eight years is obvious. How much she decides to make of this leverage will be seen in the years to come. It may be too soon to make any sudden moves but I suspect that her advisors are going to begin to point her to a future in a much more prominent place in politics. There have been few first ladies that have managed to have as much of an effect outside the U.S as she has-and that in the U.K!

So my advise for the 99%. Relax...either that or do as much as you can to become part of the 1%! No one in their right mind with all the privileges that accrue to the latter would want to leave this privileged group. They may be lost...but they are also loaded. Anyhow you can at least take comfort in the idea that you are part of God's fold and that you are safe in your numbers. 

1%, 99%, Tea Party, Republicans, Democrats, POTUS, FLOTUS,Bill Clinton, Senate, House, Chris Christie.

The House of Scotts

This month we saw a massive event in one of our local stadia. It brought together the national party and it's leader as well as a healthy chunk of our youthful populace. In a rare and possibly chance encounter, we saw drawn in one sitting two carriers of the sacred name from the house of Scotts. One one hand the founder of the miracle centre churches and on another the CEO of the Vision Group. 

I doubt that the man we fondly made reference to as the last king of scotland was the buffoon we tried to make him become. But he was wise enough to place around him two men who as fate would have it were both at least on the surface from the land of scone. We expect to see much more from his Progeny as politics begins to take on a more filial nature not just in this region but globally (the Clinton's, the Bush family, the Kennedy's, the Kenyatta's, the Moi's, Odingas, the Bhuttos?).

Back to the Apostle and the CEO. Have you ever met your replacement?

Pray to God that this never happens. You get this strange feeling when you meet someone who shares your name and a better portion of your virtues. That sense that in your absence this guy could actually replace you! 

Months ago I heaped praise (deservingly) on the Vision Group for its ability to transform itself from a simple news organization into a larger more complex development oriented profit making organization.

I talked about how a simple newspaper had used the print to transform itself into a large media giant now broadcasting in several languages both visually and in audio form. I talked about how this transformation had also taken place in the web and mobile space and how simple columns formerly dealing with dress and style were now producing influential magazines for brides and then holding large exhibitions and events for the same. 

More recently the CEO in another well designed move has not stopped there he had also made the decision to create a platform for our culinary experts-ordinary women (and I use that term loosely) who use their skills to feed the masses who congregate in the city.

This would help create a lot of interest in their work as well as raise the standard of their culinary delights. In addition to this, this would also help stem the effects of a new and conflicting interest in international cuisine that threatens to overshadow some very special traditional specialties. 

We see the rise or dawn of the age of franchising that was foreign in this part of the world but some level of stability means that we will soon have places in our country that will mirror cities like NY and California. My fear regarding this was simple. Why did we not have a corresponding drive to export our dishes like the juggernauts out there and why we are we not supplying our savory dishes across the continents in support of our hard working citizenry. Maybe ideas like this from Mr. Kabushenga will help create a drive that promotes our food. Maybe renewed interest in our Rolex (a local version of the wrap or barritto) will spark more related projects. Maybe the competition will help place our local dishes on the map and drive a greater interest in this meals. We can only hope that the vision that the people and The New Vision will help steer this ship in a great a tumultuous sea of uncertainty. 

That aside there are some other columns that can use a little more expansion. 

The first is from the Bukedde. The Thursday paper has a section in which it deals with traditional medicine? This Needs to be expanded. Maybe the section of news from this part ouch an be aggregated and presented in a monthly or bi-monthly edition that can then be used and critiqued by local practitioners. 

Then there is the controversial dream interpretation section. My sources tell me that some very influential men from the bible (Joseph and Daniel)both used their skill of interpretation in strategic ways that led them to larger leadership roles. 

Other sections in the English version such as Pakasa can also have a little expansion but should be devolved or taken away from the centre. Creating regional meets would eventually lead to an national event where the best groups from each section or region or district would then be given a chance compete. This has already began to expand with events branching out and bringing in much needed revenue to local venues such as Kampala Parents School and Freedom City and drawing in some amazing speakers from across the spectrum.

P squared

It's been a rather interesting few months in our East African politic.

Our friends in Burundi made some bold attempts to urge their leaders on and this for now seems to have failed. In the meantime right next door in the historically volatile Rwanda, another president seemed to have received the go ahead to keep his spot in the centre. 

I could not help but think about a tweet I noticed on the Internet in which a reference was made to stealing from 'Paul to pay Peter'. And so my thoughts run wild with ideas about Paul Kagame on one hand and Pierre (Peter) Nkurunziza on the other. 

Both military men. Both leading fragile democracies and both being urged to make room for others.

Saint Paul is still a formidable foe and by all accounts quite a military strategist, from what our sources tell us, he does not take to kindly to opposition movements and has managed to stretch the arm of his government all the way to South Africa and France.

Internally and regionally he has found it rather difficult keeping the calm with various groups attempting to wage war against his government from bases in the large Congo. The existence of minerals in the region has done little to help the situation- this as well as posturing from friends and foes alike in the area where the ethnicity card card has been played to the full. 

The South Africans have done their best to flex their muscle in the region and have often stepped in at crucial moments to help steer the movements of their northern neighbors. 

France on the other hand has had to deal with decades of guilt and off course the residue from its colonial years. In attempts to free itself from the disasters in the early nineties, the French have taken on the role of arbiter in the internal conflicts of the country but with limited success. 

The military move in Burundi (by the coup plotters) effectively robbed the rapidly evolving movement of its momentum thereby preventing civil society from claiming its largely peaceful drive towards the protection of the sacred constitution (and the contents of the Tanzanian peace accord and Agreement).

By seeming to attach themselves to the peaceful activity in the streets, the military and it's top men gave the absent president much more power to claim the existence of bad elements in the army and therefore to garner much more support in the center. 

The Politicization of Social Media

You've been there before. You are seated in a taxi and suddenly the
person next to you receives a message. You can tell it is from social media because a familiar sound pierces the silence and your neighbor begins mercilessly clicking away. Its fine until you enter paranoia mode and begin to think that you are being stalked.

We've written about a topic similar to the one above in a previous blog. We were concerned and rightly so because we observed the appearance of the Usual Suspects at a normally technology heavy event. Well dressed young men with a lot of 'bling' but suspiciously watching the crowd as if to monitor the activity of the participants for political or opposition connections. You were saddened that an innovation space so full of potential had been infiltrated by 'eyes' and 'ears' and any sign of true innovation was going to be stifled.   

You were angered because you are very aware that one of the hallmarks of democracy is the existence of political free zones where business, trade and a healthy interchange of idea can take place.
We fight for these free zones because in the absence of these spaces there can only be conflict.

And so the image we chose today is designed to illustrate the idea behind an invasion of a media tool by a political movement and the difficulty faced by citizens in expressing themselves in a politically charged atmosphere.
You and I have to think twice before we adorn ourselves with a T-Shirt of a particular color especially in those tense feverish politically charged moments such as the season in which we have entered.

Ok. We can see that the two bulls in the Kraal have began to appear together and their respective owners are itching for a fight between the two. Naturally as many would have expected, these two distinct groups have drawn in their respective tribes in a battle that we shall refer to as the 'Western Front Assault'.

There are some who have called for a rotation of leadership ala Nigeria where the Mainly Muslim North gets a chance to drive the train for a certain distance as does the Mainly Christian South. This has proved to be successful. Ideas have also emerged that have pushed for the creation if similar moves in ethno-centric areas. This is naturally controversial but in countries that thrive on culture it is a question that we must bring to the surface.     

So the need to monitor media in the shadow of your past fears is necessary but more important than this is to deal with the challenges as presented by your citizenry and to trust them enough not to repeat their mistakes.