New Power Centres or simply old latent ones?

Its been a few months now since a trip to the Vatican by Big Hat.

We are wondering what this means in the bigger political picture. Some of our initial thoughts a centred on the place of Religion in Politics and we are certain, across the board that the evidence supporting this abounds.  In the Kingdom of Buganda for example, there are a few major branches of power all in a battle for competition or at least attention for the ear of the King. In an almost cyclical manner, we seem to find ourselves in the late 1800s negotiating deals with prominent monarchs while cutting corners and bending the rules with their prime ministers. The protestants are here and this time around have a hill and provinces from which they can exercise their power, and so do the catholics and Muslims. Not only do these groups have  hold on religion, they also have foot in the health system. The hills are places of worship but next to these places of worship we can also find major hospitals whose task it seems is to furnish the adherents with pills and portions.     

The only unrecognized but still widely influential house of worship belongs to local religious groups or Basamize (worship focuses on shrines and ancient practices with an emphasis on cultural heroes).  This group is responsible for major activities regarding the Kingdom and claims quite a prominent place in history.  This group capitalizes on the African...and his fear of the unknown...and his tendency towards all things religious or spiritual.

So any attempts from politicians towards any single one of these groups makes some sense in the search for followers.

The fourth Estate has also emerged as a player in the bigger picture but the dawn of Social Media has complicated the task. What we find is that there is a flood of information and very few with the skills to figure out what to treasure and what to trash. And so there is a steady movement from clip to clip and from story to story in an uncoordinated frenzy for information and the possibility of a master story teller or spinner for that matter sitting by and giggling and morsels of truth are scattered before the teeming masses of hungry citizens.

The strange constant in all of this though, is entertainment with its ability to churn out celebrities in all sorts of fields keeping us glued, active and wishing on stars in a hapless sky.

The independence of media has also proved to be quite a challenge because those with prominence and ash have managed to consolidate all the major and influential sources of information into their own hands.

And so we stand at the foot of the mountain waiting for the prophet to return.

While there has been activity in other power centers too, the protestant movement has suffered a hemorrhage of sorts as it has attempted to deal with two major issues. The Ordination of Women and the question of Homo Sexuality. This has caused some to venture back to the mother church and even resulted in the birth of some major rifts in Anglo-Afro church relations.

On a local level much of the activity towards the protestant center has been internal in scope. In politically active areas the choice of new leaders has had the uncomfortable feeling of a political rally and not a congregation in search of a shepherd.

The broader reality of the day has meant that a house divided cannot stand and this has proven effective in Islam (in the Ugandan context and in the greater or broader view).  

Even if on the surface the battle seems to have been around Issues, at heart it has also been on resources (which are often the backdrop of much greater conflicts). Two major groups have therefore emerged wrestling for recognition and space. To expect a quick resolution for age old conflicts is ludicrous. The politician's biggest question is how to capitalize and court both groups with minimum risk to oneself...or on other cases how to further divide groups if that suits your ultimate end.   

A tale of three dailies-my pelican brief

We are still dealing with some of the fallout after major rifts in the National Resistance Movement came to the fore. 

My interest for now, is to examine how three separate print media groups covered the story and how the content was delivered to the reading populace (given the literacy numbers and the incomplete social metamorphosis-a good chunk of our populace see only gibberish not words).

Print media still matters because it manages to keep the educated class interested and reading with a view of making good, massive investments In a floundering education system. 

It is this group that then works its way through the masses to digest the information...regurgitate it and then feed it to its underlings who more often than not can do with some analysis and education.

And so the good old radio complete with its funny men, doles out pieces of data from the experts while toying with the intelligence of the populace with flat bed truck presentations of dance and humor served with an appearance of some stars. 

The red pepper (15th March 2014 intelligence briefing) chose to focus more on relationships that grace had formed while in office and examined the results of the man hunt that followed. In a sense, they sought to see how many had benefitted from grace and who among those beneficiaries would remain faithful to the end. So the list gave names covering the full gamut of our known world complete with bio data and a little embellishment. This matters because people do not develop in isolation unless they are gods. 

These developments are connections which the Chinese refer to as guangxi. In these parts we used to have references to "mwana wa Ni" which has quickly collapsed and been overtaken by the use of force( another phenomenon which seems to point to the rise of the lumpen proletariat-something never before imagined). So it is not so much whose son are you, but also who do you know...and what can you do?

But even more than all of this-can you beat the crap out of the competition-literally not figuratively. This reminds me of the 'sudden' rise of a genre of movies that favors fights largely managed by wealth elites and handled by larger often less educated class groups (fight club as well as some of the movies that emerged out of the 

World Wrestling Federation).

The new vision was a little more cautious and rightly so...it has after all often been accused of towing the government line. What the reader needed was to depend on opinion pieces and separate contributions from columnists of influence instead of having to lean too heavily on the paper or the media group for that matter. A smart move given the stakes. 

The monitor, which is part of another jagarnaut was a little more bold in its expression perhaps owing much of this to frequent run-ins with the enforcement arm of the law (closures and arrests of key media personalities). It's responses and much of its coverage was sent to its regional office and presented in its East African version (March 15th-21st 2014 with an article discussing the fall out between two prominent leaders, and an interesting apology form the group regarding an article published in their May 14th-20th 2012 edition, September 27th-October 3rd dealt with the subject but mainly from the broader subject of loyalties and alliances). 

Experts or columnists from its smaller local daily the monitor were utilized for their knowledge but most importantly the paper also carried large ads about some major projects and ministries Karamoja, the Prison Department, Office of the Prime Minister to mention but a few.

The rest of the article that were published in between focused in 'untreated events' but equally important occurrences like the crisis in Southern Sudan (incidentally also loosely filed by a leadership challenge at the top), the award of tenders for the Standard Guage railway, and new developments in Malawi.

It would be tempting to go easy on a group that was literally paying the bills and allowing you to stay in business. 

In terms of strategy, this was probably brilliant on the part of the movement for countering the drive of the East African to reach a larger audience by littering the paper with ad pieces detailing progress on other related governance events thereby saving some fragments of public sentiment. 

Of mechanics and lumpen proletarians

Another strange rift emerged this week as a simmering battle spilled over into the open to reveal a hatred that has been brewing now for quite a while. The issue...so say the mechanics had something to do with the loss and theft of spare parts by one group. The result was catastrophic. A host of car repair men descended on the young people and sought to bring their wrath upon them with bricks and sticks and any other makeshift tool that they could come up with. 

The young street children were left with no choice but as nature dictates responded with equal force even if some of them were met by the bigger mob of angry vehicle men. 

While on the surface it seems as though the challenge was one of theft, my guess is that it points to something much bigger...a collapse in an organized system of crime and the likelihood of a spillover where someone had to take the fall. 

I seems to be common knowledge of the existence of a larger group whose sole purpose seems to be to handle a burgeoning industry in parts. 

Alas in these parts too, the truth is the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. 

It is strange to see that in this situation, the usually well functioning law enforcement people were left speechless and unable to move in the presence of the mammoth crowd of irate citizens. 

Now once again I wait for the fallout of this incident. I have few doubts that there will probably be an escalation if not a deepening of resentment and two groups nurse their wounds. 

Long sleeves short sleeves and bear arms: militias and the protection of liberty.

It's only a matter of time before we have to unite in order to harness the vast size of our continent and tap into its immense resources both human and natural. As we move hastily towards that end, what does the future of the continent look like and which parts of the U.S constitution would we be first to adopt. What do we view as the most important part of the U.S constitution and it's relevance in our context?

I think that the most important part of the constitution is the second amendment and it reference to right to bear arms especially in regards to the protections of liberties. But in a much larger context, the reference to a militia in defense of those rights. 

There have been several recent notable examples of people who deviated from the path and took up those arms in protest and who as a result were pursued and violently gunned down. What this means is that even if the American knows that he has the right to protect and guard himself against what he views as violations to liberty, he must prepare himself for a system that is much better equipped and better trained and that holds much more sway with a massive media machine. I speak here in reference to a former member of the LAPD who went rogue and strangely received quite a lot of support from citizens on social media. Even if he was well trained he was no match for the crew that was sent to rein him in. You have the right to bear arms and to form a militia in defense of liberty but will you be able to stand against the force that represents the other side?

Maybe our response to the drive towards this process has been a little slow but many have responded...but I fear that our doubts about terrorism and the change in language and landscape that took place post 911 has brought about a fear of all sorts of protest even armed protest so that no one dares raise the alarm of truth with the knowledge of the consequences. 

The nature of modern warfare has changed dramatically but there are some fundamentals that have remained. Even an army as large and well equipped as the U.S army still feels rather incapacitated because of an inability to put boots in the ground. Maybe this is a veiled reference to the old Nations Story about a man who must walk the land in order to receive it as his inheritance. 

While seeming to deviate, the arrival of the drone in African should be writing on the wall for those of us who never dreamt of a day when we would see an occupying force on our lands even under the guise of building hospitals. Should we be looking at the the reported high incidence of airborne diseases as a sign of a new from of chemical warfare? I hope not. 

While not completely certain of how the cards are going to stack out, I still see a proliferation of arms...which we must counter with some form of civic education. In some circles this is a much better option that the crude weapons which a largely agrarian group would resort to if pushed. 

A rock and a hard place: Between the cops and the merchants

Last week the students at the MUK responded to a proposed hike in their graduation fees. The response was measured but when the students began to be seen as disruptive, the riot police was forced into action. Some of the students then found themselves caught between a rock and a hard place...or in this case between the police officers (anxious to preserve order) and the merchants (keen to protect their merchandise). 

As can be expected soon the matter was resolved, albeit temporarily and a few heroes emerged. The solution in my view was temporary because the problem that brought about the hike in fees...which in this case, is likely to be a shortage in funds, still remains. In addition to this, the enforcement arm of the law continues to undermine the administrative work of the university council by appearing at strategic and calculated moments to play the role of messiah in times when they should really allow the University and it's systems to play their role. 

The students seem to be concerned that they have been gagged while in council and at the moment restricted to observer status so that they are unable to present their views in order to influence in a direct manner the way business is run at their University. 

As though this is not enough, our lecturers have emerged through their association with fresh demands regarding some of their payments. 

Unlike their counterparts though, they are more likely to down their instruments in an effort to paralyze the system a move that will further enflame the student body to response with yet another demonstration resulting in the same cycle in which yet again another savior will emerge dressed in full riot gear. 

Advise? Try as much as possible not to alienate yourselves from the merchants...they happen to be the ones who feed you. 

The use of force is brutish and must be your last option. After all you are being trained to be our first line of defense and there is great likelihood that most of your will find your way into some top positions in parliament and in our political parties. 

Thirdly, do not take part in activities that place you at the mercy of better armed and better trained officers of the law. Do not chose to be a pawn unless you are certain of promotion at the end of the game. 

Fourthly, you are aristocrats...do treat the rodents with some measure of respect!

Milking the masses

It's been a few days since the Kenyans pulled off a coup d'tat at the Hague. A triumphal entry similar to the one that had taken place only a few days prior (in Uganda) then followed in which a sizable group of Kenyans met the head of state as he arrived back into the country. 

As the Ugandan media was trying to deal with an apparent rift between two major players in the so called resistance movement (so called because the history of resistance movement in my view is often fraught with much less pomp and circumstance-which is why it is probably preferable to refer to it as a revolutionary movement). 

Those with a keener eye and better memory referred to the return of the Colonel...to Uganda which back in the day was met with a mammoth crowd as well as that of popular TV personality who had made a name for himself in a season of Big Brother. 

Even if some called this an amazing feat of mobilization, there is great risk of placing Big Hat under the same category as his former Colonel and the Big Brother Star. Apart from the free fuel...and the chance to see a star or two, we can speak of a power vacuum that existed and that necessitated an absence of one leader for a certain aspect of the rift to be dealt with. 

It is important to note that we are now speaking of a broader East African Politic in which different parts of the opposition and civil society are making use of each others creativity by acts of replication.

And so the triumphal march of one is imitated by another (politics) and the use of hogs in parliament, and coffins (Kenya) is dubbed by another (civil society in Uganda). The force with which both protests are met is matched as the enforcement arm of the judiciary responds with rapidity and continues to spend millions towards equipment. 

In an interview or appearance on the radio, TMJ or the man some of you choose to refer to as motor mouth, makes a reference to the value of what I call the emotions of the masses. In this reference he is basically saying that it serves you well to milk the masses of their mercy especially when you find yourself in trouble. 

This is what some experts refer to in the ICC case...at least in reference to the head of state. It is a little too late to apply the same to our counterparts in Khartoum and would prove rather risky for him to attempt to pull this off. 

We are now left to wonder if the right decisions have been made. A long prison sentence is bearable in as far as it allows you to live to fight another day (albeit behind bars). I do not see the international criminal court assenting to hanging as a means of justice but these are possibilities in many of our countries and that is if natural African justice is not allowed to come into play. 

None of the our major players have been in power long enough to claim the right to a collapse of their nations a la Libya, Egypt and Iraq. 

Put this together and I see a rise in Radicalization of the youth. You can only watch for so long before you become affected by what you see and act on it. At the core of this group will be the Fourth Estate and an exhausted civil society. 

You can see aspects of this in Uganda whose opposition has played it cool for long but is beginning to experience an exhaustion. 

The youth will begin to realize that they do it stand a chance against the machinery of the state and a manipulated legislative and judicial arm. 

In some regards you will find a nameless faceless group with absolutely no links to power and it's trapping but with a realization that they have a stake in the governance of their nations. I they are unable to force their governments into exhaustion but their demands and drive the bureaucracy to a halt. They will begin to think about creative ways to turn their plowshares into swords. This is as we all know a largely agrarian economy.

State of Play or State at Play:Politics and governance in present day Uganda-an overview.

The value of tribal groupings in the presence of fear.

The recent elections in Kenya demonstrate several things but one thing stood out. When various groups are allowed to act under fear, they will invariably vote or cluster around their own ethnicities. And so large swathes gathered and formed coalitions and won based on shear numbers. The few who chose to think beyond the lines of tribe were drowned out by the massive crowds and were forced instead to ponder and philosophize. 

The role of religion (main stream) in politics. 

We will continue to nurse our wounds from the precolonial period and perhaps even question our monarchs on the role of religion in their fall. Veiled in under the cloak of truth, we will continue to ponder how best to march into the future without essential military muscle or trade to back our claims to leadership. The marriage between state and religion had long stabilized and what was left for the western powers to take advantage of our natural inclination towards all things religious. For those in the west, there was a realization that their monarchs needed to yield some of the religious power that was already entrenched in the lives of their subjects. Without this type of union governance would be impossible. Rome expanded as a force militarily but was also growing religiously. In a sense the feet of clay were functioning fully with those of iron. 

The role of religion (non main stream) in politics.

Other groups that have remained rather silent but nonetheless relatively effective are those which are historical and regionally effective in the attempt to redefine religion and western-African influence. We speak here of the revival movement which is commonly referred to as bazikufu. An offshoot of the Catholic and Anglican movements which commands quite a following and has emerged with a sense of vigor and an ability to influence leadership in an overt manner. 

Geo-politics and governance.

Even if there are certain aspects of this description in the tribal discussion, geography too will plays an important role-especially when you factor in recent discoveries in minerals. But to larger extent though, regions that sit at the border also tend to present great challenges especially because there are often complex relationships that need management with other states and that must be played out at the borders. 

Local monarchs and their function in leadership. 

In the current game, most of the power seems to rest in western parts of Uganda and those who have emerged as challengers to the authority of the Kingdoms. This has not stopped or impeded the progress of other groups with similar interests in kingdom politics. To a larger extent many have fallen victim to the loyalties that often force families to coalesce around one another and to from mini-monarchies around themselves. 

The military and it's role. 

Recent operations in the military have resulted in a force that now to a great extent is closer to our most important resource and on the surface of it, can help manage monies,produce and implements. Uganda is rather strange because it presents very little difficulty in logistics especially the function that has to do with feeding large military groups and dealing with military rations. Moving machinery and men is a challenge, feeding them presents an even greater difficulty. Not here though, there is plenty of food from which wondering militias can benefit from. 

Managing foreign relationships.

Very few people can manage a rise to power without some form of support. Our neighbors here have had a role to play in the politics of our governance. Some tended to feel only a limited need to be involved until they were led to do so by acts of aggression. The man who seeks or govern must therefore identify these groups and seek to endear himself or herself to these groups. He must then find ways and resources (locally) to help feed the appetites for resources that fuel much of their operation. 

Behind every successful man....

Then there is the emotional side of politics. The hand the rocks the cradle. Managing a group of people who forget nothing and harbor a great deal of resentment can be challenge. How you deal with these issues will determine a lot about how you govern. Much of the frustration that is harbored by men stems from usurpations of their power that took place in households. Most men did not read the memo that was circulating amongst the women whose central call was that of liberation. Traditional male dominated (and culturally supported roles) structures were found wanting in an age when their counterparts (or subordinates) began to rake in hundreds of times more than than before.