Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

The second debate

Yes the Election seems to be long past...and with that the much anticipated debate. So this is what we think are the highlights.

The crowning moment 

We got yet another dose of the King's poetry-and yes for him the debate was the thing. He was able to watch as the president attended the three hour do. After years in the judiciary as well as some translation work for the bible society he looked visibly exhausted but glad. He even made some mention about the possibility of overseeing another similar bout this time around 2021? 

Language matters 

Interesting to note as three prominent military men (Gen Biraro, Gen 

Yoweri Museveni and Colonel Warren Kizza Besigye) made their way onto the stage and got comfortable. One of the moderators-a lecturer at the Ivory Tower made clear what the 'rules of engagement were'. "Oh no," Said I, "that is a military term". And so in my view we said goodbye to level ground. This was going to be battle field and no one was going to take any prisoners. Events which manage to get the attention of a functioning head of state in the African Environment, can be overwhelming. Security at the Serena was also officially handed to the special forces group further sealing the fate of the participants. The Americans are a little different. The moment you begin to carry the scent of the presidency, they assign you a group of secret agents who begin to think of you in terms of the oval office-complete with code names and Black Chevy Suburbans! 

Seating arrangements 

The president was assigned a seat on the far end of the stage and was provided a buffer (Maureen Kyalya). She in a sense was tasked the responsibility of taking some heat on behalf of the president. The rest of the arrangements were pretty much the same as the first debate although this time around the empty seat was taken.

Over compensation 

The presence of the head of state was welcome by many who did not wish to see him come across as weak and fearful. His minders had made sure that most of the hostile ground was cleared. What the president therefore had was a touch of sympathy (which he used to the max). He began well with historical references a la Kyalya (in the first debate). But soon and with subsequent questions he appeared perturbed and agitated when accusations came flying in from opposition circles. He was able to take advantage of the time factor as many of the other participants had mentioned further opening the way for a format that suited his style. In the meantime there was an expression from Dr. Kizza Besigye who was now cornered into taking a more calm tone that his usual confrontational demeanor. 

Preemptive strikes 

To give the president much more leverage, his minders took what we would like to refer to as a preemptive strike. They made sure that Shaka Saali a prominent international voice in the American Media was silenced long before the debate. This they did by questioning his motives and mining through an archive of his older material to convince the president that he would not be a fair panelist. In a sense the 'drones' had done their work so that the 'ground troops would have an easier time getting those boots on the ground'. This gave the General much more leverage with the crowd. Shaka Ssali simply played it smart and just gave them what they asked for. He simply represented his brand with the words "get better not bitter" as well as his characteristic "I am deeply humbled and profoundly honored"

Late entries and local humor

Joseph Mabirizi arrived late but manage to grab the attention of the crowd by stating that the president is usually supposed to arrive late. Maureen Kyalya also mentioned her willingness to give an advisory position to the former president were she to gain access to state house.