New Power Centres or simply old latent ones?

Its been a few months now since a trip to the Vatican by Big Hat.

We are wondering what this means in the bigger political picture. Some of our initial thoughts a centred on the place of Religion in Politics and we are certain, across the board that the evidence supporting this abounds.  In the Kingdom of Buganda for example, there are a few major branches of power all in a battle for competition or at least attention for the ear of the King. In an almost cyclical manner, we seem to find ourselves in the late 1800s negotiating deals with prominent monarchs while cutting corners and bending the rules with their prime ministers. The protestants are here and this time around have a hill and provinces from which they can exercise their power, and so do the catholics and Muslims. Not only do these groups have  hold on religion, they also have foot in the health system. The hills are places of worship but next to these places of worship we can also find major hospitals whose task it seems is to furnish the adherents with pills and portions.     

The only unrecognized but still widely influential house of worship belongs to local religious groups or Basamize (worship focuses on shrines and ancient practices with an emphasis on cultural heroes).  This group is responsible for major activities regarding the Kingdom and claims quite a prominent place in history.  This group capitalizes on the African...and his fear of the unknown...and his tendency towards all things religious or spiritual.

So any attempts from politicians towards any single one of these groups makes some sense in the search for followers.

The fourth Estate has also emerged as a player in the bigger picture but the dawn of Social Media has complicated the task. What we find is that there is a flood of information and very few with the skills to figure out what to treasure and what to trash. And so there is a steady movement from clip to clip and from story to story in an uncoordinated frenzy for information and the possibility of a master story teller or spinner for that matter sitting by and giggling and morsels of truth are scattered before the teeming masses of hungry citizens.

The strange constant in all of this though, is entertainment with its ability to churn out celebrities in all sorts of fields keeping us glued, active and wishing on stars in a hapless sky.

The independence of media has also proved to be quite a challenge because those with prominence and ash have managed to consolidate all the major and influential sources of information into their own hands.

And so we stand at the foot of the mountain waiting for the prophet to return.

While there has been activity in other power centers too, the protestant movement has suffered a hemorrhage of sorts as it has attempted to deal with two major issues. The Ordination of Women and the question of Homo Sexuality. This has caused some to venture back to the mother church and even resulted in the birth of some major rifts in Anglo-Afro church relations.

On a local level much of the activity towards the protestant center has been internal in scope. In politically active areas the choice of new leaders has had the uncomfortable feeling of a political rally and not a congregation in search of a shepherd.

The broader reality of the day has meant that a house divided cannot stand and this has proven effective in Islam (in the Ugandan context and in the greater or broader view).  

Even if on the surface the battle seems to have been around Issues, at heart it has also been on resources (which are often the backdrop of much greater conflicts). Two major groups have therefore emerged wrestling for recognition and space. To expect a quick resolution for age old conflicts is ludicrous. The politician's biggest question is how to capitalize and court both groups with minimum risk to oneself...or on other cases how to further divide groups if that suits your ultimate end.   

A tale of three dailies-my pelican brief

We are still dealing with some of the fallout after major rifts in the National Resistance Movement came to the fore. 

My interest for now, is to examine how three separate print media groups covered the story and how the content was delivered to the reading populace (given the literacy numbers and the incomplete social metamorphosis-a good chunk of our populace see only gibberish not words).

Print media still matters because it manages to keep the educated class interested and reading with a view of making good, massive investments In a floundering education system. 

It is this group that then works its way through the masses to digest the information...regurgitate it and then feed it to its underlings who more often than not can do with some analysis and education.

And so the good old radio complete with its funny men, doles out pieces of data from the experts while toying with the intelligence of the populace with flat bed truck presentations of dance and humor served with an appearance of some stars. 

The red pepper (15th March 2014 intelligence briefing) chose to focus more on relationships that grace had formed while in office and examined the results of the man hunt that followed. In a sense, they sought to see how many had benefitted from grace and who among those beneficiaries would remain faithful to the end. So the list gave names covering the full gamut of our known world complete with bio data and a little embellishment. This matters because people do not develop in isolation unless they are gods. 

These developments are connections which the Chinese refer to as guangxi. In these parts we used to have references to "mwana wa Ni" which has quickly collapsed and been overtaken by the use of force( another phenomenon which seems to point to the rise of the lumpen proletariat-something never before imagined). So it is not so much whose son are you, but also who do you know...and what can you do?

But even more than all of this-can you beat the crap out of the competition-literally not figuratively. This reminds me of the 'sudden' rise of a genre of movies that favors fights largely managed by wealth elites and handled by larger often less educated class groups (fight club as well as some of the movies that emerged out of the 

World Wrestling Federation).

The new vision was a little more cautious and rightly so...it has after all often been accused of towing the government line. What the reader needed was to depend on opinion pieces and separate contributions from columnists of influence instead of having to lean too heavily on the paper or the media group for that matter. A smart move given the stakes. 

The monitor, which is part of another jagarnaut was a little more bold in its expression perhaps owing much of this to frequent run-ins with the enforcement arm of the law (closures and arrests of key media personalities). It's responses and much of its coverage was sent to its regional office and presented in its East African version (March 15th-21st 2014 with an article discussing the fall out between two prominent leaders, and an interesting apology form the group regarding an article published in their May 14th-20th 2012 edition, September 27th-October 3rd dealt with the subject but mainly from the broader subject of loyalties and alliances). 

Experts or columnists from its smaller local daily the monitor were utilized for their knowledge but most importantly the paper also carried large ads about some major projects and ministries Karamoja, the Prison Department, Office of the Prime Minister to mention but a few.

The rest of the article that were published in between focused in 'untreated events' but equally important occurrences like the crisis in Southern Sudan (incidentally also loosely filed by a leadership challenge at the top), the award of tenders for the Standard Guage railway, and new developments in Malawi.

It would be tempting to go easy on a group that was literally paying the bills and allowing you to stay in business. 

In terms of strategy, this was probably brilliant on the part of the movement for countering the drive of the East African to reach a larger audience by littering the paper with ad pieces detailing progress on other related governance events thereby saving some fragments of public sentiment. 

Of mechanics and lumpen proletarians

Another strange rift emerged this week as a simmering battle spilled over into the open to reveal a hatred that has been brewing now for quite a while. The issue...so say the mechanics had something to do with the loss and theft of spare parts by one group. The result was catastrophic. A host of car repair men descended on the young people and sought to bring their wrath upon them with bricks and sticks and any other makeshift tool that they could come up with. 

The young street children were left with no choice but as nature dictates responded with equal force even if some of them were met by the bigger mob of angry vehicle men. 

While on the surface it seems as though the challenge was one of theft, my guess is that it points to something much bigger...a collapse in an organized system of crime and the likelihood of a spillover where someone had to take the fall. 

I seems to be common knowledge of the existence of a larger group whose sole purpose seems to be to handle a burgeoning industry in parts. 

Alas in these parts too, the truth is the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. 

It is strange to see that in this situation, the usually well functioning law enforcement people were left speechless and unable to move in the presence of the mammoth crowd of irate citizens. 

Now once again I wait for the fallout of this incident. I have few doubts that there will probably be an escalation if not a deepening of resentment and two groups nurse their wounds. 

Long sleeves short sleeves and bear arms: militias and the protection of liberty.

It's only a matter of time before we have to unite in order to harness the vast size of our continent and tap into its immense resources both human and natural. As we move hastily towards that end, what does the future of the continent look like and which parts of the U.S constitution would we be first to adopt. What do we view as the most important part of the U.S constitution and it's relevance in our context?

I think that the most important part of the constitution is the second amendment and it reference to right to bear arms especially in regards to the protections of liberties. But in a much larger context, the reference to a militia in defense of those rights. 

There have been several recent notable examples of people who deviated from the path and took up those arms in protest and who as a result were pursued and violently gunned down. What this means is that even if the American knows that he has the right to protect and guard himself against what he views as violations to liberty, he must prepare himself for a system that is much better equipped and better trained and that holds much more sway with a massive media machine. I speak here in reference to a former member of the LAPD who went rogue and strangely received quite a lot of support from citizens on social media. Even if he was well trained he was no match for the crew that was sent to rein him in. You have the right to bear arms and to form a militia in defense of liberty but will you be able to stand against the force that represents the other side?

Maybe our response to the drive towards this process has been a little slow but many have responded...but I fear that our doubts about terrorism and the change in language and landscape that took place post 911 has brought about a fear of all sorts of protest even armed protest so that no one dares raise the alarm of truth with the knowledge of the consequences. 

The nature of modern warfare has changed dramatically but there are some fundamentals that have remained. Even an army as large and well equipped as the U.S army still feels rather incapacitated because of an inability to put boots in the ground. Maybe this is a veiled reference to the old Nations Story about a man who must walk the land in order to receive it as his inheritance. 

While seeming to deviate, the arrival of the drone in African should be writing on the wall for those of us who never dreamt of a day when we would see an occupying force on our lands even under the guise of building hospitals. Should we be looking at the the reported high incidence of airborne diseases as a sign of a new from of chemical warfare? I hope not. 

While not completely certain of how the cards are going to stack out, I still see a proliferation of arms...which we must counter with some form of civic education. In some circles this is a much better option that the crude weapons which a largely agrarian group would resort to if pushed. 

A rock and a hard place: Between the cops and the merchants

Last week the students at the MUK responded to a proposed hike in their graduation fees. The response was measured but when the students began to be seen as disruptive, the riot police was forced into action. Some of the students then found themselves caught between a rock and a hard place...or in this case between the police officers (anxious to preserve order) and the merchants (keen to protect their merchandise). 

As can be expected soon the matter was resolved, albeit temporarily and a few heroes emerged. The solution in my view was temporary because the problem that brought about the hike in fees...which in this case, is likely to be a shortage in funds, still remains. In addition to this, the enforcement arm of the law continues to undermine the administrative work of the university council by appearing at strategic and calculated moments to play the role of messiah in times when they should really allow the University and it's systems to play their role. 

The students seem to be concerned that they have been gagged while in council and at the moment restricted to observer status so that they are unable to present their views in order to influence in a direct manner the way business is run at their University. 

As though this is not enough, our lecturers have emerged through their association with fresh demands regarding some of their payments. 

Unlike their counterparts though, they are more likely to down their instruments in an effort to paralyze the system a move that will further enflame the student body to response with yet another demonstration resulting in the same cycle in which yet again another savior will emerge dressed in full riot gear. 

Advise? Try as much as possible not to alienate yourselves from the merchants...they happen to be the ones who feed you. 

The use of force is brutish and must be your last option. After all you are being trained to be our first line of defense and there is great likelihood that most of your will find your way into some top positions in parliament and in our political parties. 

Thirdly, do not take part in activities that place you at the mercy of better armed and better trained officers of the law. Do not chose to be a pawn unless you are certain of promotion at the end of the game. 

Fourthly, you are aristocrats...do treat the rodents with some measure of respect!

Milking the masses

It's been a few days since the Kenyans pulled off a coup d'tat at the Hague. A triumphal entry similar to the one that had taken place only a few days prior (in Uganda) then followed in which a sizable group of Kenyans met the head of state as he arrived back into the country. 

As the Ugandan media was trying to deal with an apparent rift between two major players in the so called resistance movement (so called because the history of resistance movement in my view is often fraught with much less pomp and circumstance-which is why it is probably preferable to refer to it as a revolutionary movement). 

Those with a keener eye and better memory referred to the return of the Colonel...to Uganda which back in the day was met with a mammoth crowd as well as that of popular TV personality who had made a name for himself in a season of Big Brother. 

Even if some called this an amazing feat of mobilization, there is great risk of placing Big Hat under the same category as his former Colonel and the Big Brother Star. Apart from the free fuel...and the chance to see a star or two, we can speak of a power vacuum that existed and that necessitated an absence of one leader for a certain aspect of the rift to be dealt with. 

It is important to note that we are now speaking of a broader East African Politic in which different parts of the opposition and civil society are making use of each others creativity by acts of replication.

And so the triumphal march of one is imitated by another (politics) and the use of hogs in parliament, and coffins (Kenya) is dubbed by another (civil society in Uganda). The force with which both protests are met is matched as the enforcement arm of the judiciary responds with rapidity and continues to spend millions towards equipment. 

In an interview or appearance on the radio, TMJ or the man some of you choose to refer to as motor mouth, makes a reference to the value of what I call the emotions of the masses. In this reference he is basically saying that it serves you well to milk the masses of their mercy especially when you find yourself in trouble. 

This is what some experts refer to in the ICC case...at least in reference to the head of state. It is a little too late to apply the same to our counterparts in Khartoum and would prove rather risky for him to attempt to pull this off. 

We are now left to wonder if the right decisions have been made. A long prison sentence is bearable in as far as it allows you to live to fight another day (albeit behind bars). I do not see the international criminal court assenting to hanging as a means of justice but these are possibilities in many of our countries and that is if natural African justice is not allowed to come into play. 

None of the our major players have been in power long enough to claim the right to a collapse of their nations a la Libya, Egypt and Iraq. 

Put this together and I see a rise in Radicalization of the youth. You can only watch for so long before you become affected by what you see and act on it. At the core of this group will be the Fourth Estate and an exhausted civil society. 

You can see aspects of this in Uganda whose opposition has played it cool for long but is beginning to experience an exhaustion. 

The youth will begin to realize that they do it stand a chance against the machinery of the state and a manipulated legislative and judicial arm. 

In some regards you will find a nameless faceless group with absolutely no links to power and it's trapping but with a realization that they have a stake in the governance of their nations. I they are unable to force their governments into exhaustion but their demands and drive the bureaucracy to a halt. They will begin to think about creative ways to turn their plowshares into swords. This is as we all know a largely agrarian economy.

State of Play or State at Play:Politics and governance in present day Uganda-an overview.

The value of tribal groupings in the presence of fear.

The recent elections in Kenya demonstrate several things but one thing stood out. When various groups are allowed to act under fear, they will invariably vote or cluster around their own ethnicities. And so large swathes gathered and formed coalitions and won based on shear numbers. The few who chose to think beyond the lines of tribe were drowned out by the massive crowds and were forced instead to ponder and philosophize. 

The role of religion (main stream) in politics. 

We will continue to nurse our wounds from the precolonial period and perhaps even question our monarchs on the role of religion in their fall. Veiled in under the cloak of truth, we will continue to ponder how best to march into the future without essential military muscle or trade to back our claims to leadership. The marriage between state and religion had long stabilized and what was left for the western powers to take advantage of our natural inclination towards all things religious. For those in the west, there was a realization that their monarchs needed to yield some of the religious power that was already entrenched in the lives of their subjects. Without this type of union governance would be impossible. Rome expanded as a force militarily but was also growing religiously. In a sense the feet of clay were functioning fully with those of iron. 

The role of religion (non main stream) in politics.

Other groups that have remained rather silent but nonetheless relatively effective are those which are historical and regionally effective in the attempt to redefine religion and western-African influence. We speak here of the revival movement which is commonly referred to as bazikufu. An offshoot of the Catholic and Anglican movements which commands quite a following and has emerged with a sense of vigor and an ability to influence leadership in an overt manner. 

Geo-politics and governance.

Even if there are certain aspects of this description in the tribal discussion, geography too will plays an important role-especially when you factor in recent discoveries in minerals. But to larger extent though, regions that sit at the border also tend to present great challenges especially because there are often complex relationships that need management with other states and that must be played out at the borders. 

Local monarchs and their function in leadership. 

In the current game, most of the power seems to rest in western parts of Uganda and those who have emerged as challengers to the authority of the Kingdoms. This has not stopped or impeded the progress of other groups with similar interests in kingdom politics. To a larger extent many have fallen victim to the loyalties that often force families to coalesce around one another and to from mini-monarchies around themselves. 

The military and it's role. 

Recent operations in the military have resulted in a force that now to a great extent is closer to our most important resource and on the surface of it, can help manage monies,produce and implements. Uganda is rather strange because it presents very little difficulty in logistics especially the function that has to do with feeding large military groups and dealing with military rations. Moving machinery and men is a challenge, feeding them presents an even greater difficulty. Not here though, there is plenty of food from which wondering militias can benefit from. 

Managing foreign relationships.

Very few people can manage a rise to power without some form of support. Our neighbors here have had a role to play in the politics of our governance. Some tended to feel only a limited need to be involved until they were led to do so by acts of aggression. The man who seeks or govern must therefore identify these groups and seek to endear himself or herself to these groups. He must then find ways and resources (locally) to help feed the appetites for resources that fuel much of their operation. 

Behind every successful man....

Then there is the emotional side of politics. The hand the rocks the cradle. Managing a group of people who forget nothing and harbor a great deal of resentment can be challenge. How you deal with these issues will determine a lot about how you govern. Much of the frustration that is harbored by men stems from usurpations of their power that took place in households. Most men did not read the memo that was circulating amongst the women whose central call was that of liberation. Traditional male dominated (and culturally supported roles) structures were found wanting in an age when their counterparts (or subordinates) began to rake in hundreds of times more than than before. 

No Fundis Allowed

A few years back, there was a set of ominous signs which used to be displayed in Kenyan showrooms. 

The sings read-No Fundis Allowed. 

For those who are new to the language, a fundi in this case is a reference to the carpenter. 

The fear in those days was around the skills of these Fundis who needed just one look at your latest designs and in no time, these would be replicated. 

This is no way to run a business...living off the ideas of others...and many of us do it a lot. But the signs were evidence albeit offensive that the abilities of that group of artisans were at an exceptional level. 

Maybe you need to learn to hold your cards little closer to your chest. Maybe you need to think clearly about what you have perfected. I could be that you have reached a place where your knowledge is frightening to your peers and this is why they do not plan on hiring you any time soon. 

A marriage made in heaven? Not really

In Uganda there was a drive to link the police service with our ever present Boda Boda cyclists. The intent is simple enough...on the surface but is sure to present some challenges in the future. 

The temptation to use the cyclists as an extension of the service or to assist in community policing is noble but there is still a massive challenge of registration and organization. 

It is impossible to expect all your Boda Boda cyclists to rally behind the ruling party or to devote all their energies towards the opposition. My suggestion though, similar to what others have stated is to harness their numbers in the form of an association or group whose needs can then be represented towards one goal. 

The Iranians and the Burmese are some examples of countries that have made use of the cyclists as an extension of their intelligence services but the idea springs a lot more from convenience and speed as opposed to experience. 

It is likely that our countries will continue to struggle and debate the ideas behind intelligence gathering around numbers (quantity) and substance (quality). But there is likely to be a fallout at least in these parts in regards to mass. In a sense, your work is likely to be ruined because of the amount of information you have to process so that the real valuable stuff ends up under the pile of the really unimportant stuff. 

In addition to this, given the tendency to exercise force for which our boys on the bikes are know (mini skirts as a case in point). You are bound to find a sizable amount of abuse in the area of enforcement. 

When Africa hits puberty

There is talk in these parts about the skill often associated with our female colleagues in managing to milk the resources of their male counterparts. 

. 

The idea springs from our campuses and basically describes a situation in which the average gal can fund her challenging school days from the meager resources of an unknowing suitor or group of suitors. 

You will often hear of a list of chaps whose job function ranges from airtime guy, to meal guy, to upkeep guy and many more. 

Which brings me the article title...in which I suggest that Africa has hit puberty. Finally she realizes that she has goods that are attractive to the market (resources) and suitors. Who would have know that she is in a position to play them all and receive the benefits of her 'attractiveness'. 

The Americans seem to play from a different line. They will not overtly use American workers to to work the roads or to manage their projects but back home a healthy chunk of the cash sent here will be harvested at home and benefit the home front. The Chinese are more overt in their declaration of love interest. But they are making their play from a backwards position. They have the disadvantage of having a language that is yet to be adopted by the rest of the world. Fortunately though we cannot say the same about the possibility of having their currency take center stage in place of he dollar. In addition to this, the Chinese have not always felt the urge to play he game fairly when it comes to trade. 

In addition to this, their use of labor is less restricted and more obvious. 

Perhaps a late comer in this battle is India but there is a likelihood that her resources can still be utilized. What China is to the U.S in terms of development and labor especially in the 20th century, India is to Africa. How India manages to put her foreign populations into the system will determine how much progress she makes. 

So what the the rules and who are the major players. The countries with the largest populations are obvious players. Then there are those nations whose history gives them an edge as colonial 'masters'. Then there are the teeming populations striving to make a change and move from previous positions of supposed inferiority. 

The rules are important because they determine how the changes we need happen and who the true beneficiaries of this change are. The rules also help protect the 'gals' from manipulation and abuse and guarantee a level of fairness ( fairness assumes this to be some kind of game with rules). In a previous post I borrowed heavily from the work of certain practitioners who approach centered on the law and viewed the major players as cats and mice involved in a complex battle for space and a shifting of platforms or fora. Nations that were still fighting for a space and struggling to find a uniting front for themselves were found wanting as sudden shifts were made to regional agreements and rules that were still being understood changed. 

Katebe or Kakumbi

A popular writer in these parts, has written extensively on the role of the military in Ugandan politics. In his writings, he examines how the government in Uganda handles veterans and how those in military service chose to live their lives in retirement. One of the ideas he often plays around with is what we often refer to as Katebe. Recent development have created what I have referred to as a Kakumbi in which men in uniform are now assigned to manage farms. 

Katebe or Kakumbi?

This week there were reports from the BBC regarding the trials of two octogenarians whose lives, histories and actions have come to the fore as Cambodia attempts to deal with some troubling aspects in her history. 

While it is may be clear that these two individuals are just a mere representation of the leadership that was described as part of the problem, analysts still insist that the attempts to deal with this nations history are still quite significant and necessary. 

This story matters because in Uganda, there are some historic records that speak of a rebellion of sorts and the rise of a similar revolutionary movements.  Most of the movements that emerged from Africa used South American nations like Cuba as examples in their struggles and borrowed heavily from writings of men such as Che Guevera. In addition to this though, we find that a group of these countries also used strategies from within Africa as they moved to help liberate their countries. In Uganda for example countries like Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Angola were studied and taught in School in an effort to educate the younger populations on the unique nature of the struggle for independence and later or possibly liberation. There are writers who to this day dispute the reality behind the independence move and instead like to think of it as a handover with intent to govern from a distance. But that is really beyond the scope of this article. Instead I need to highlight a small aspect of the Cambodian struggle and it's relevance in our Context here. 

We have recently made some strategic moves towards a more aggressive  agrarian push. After some struggle implementing certain presidential initiatives like the NAADS, the government has made the choice to use its military men to help monitor and run its drive towards agricultural development. 

Perhaps this makes sense for a government that has strong leanings towards the military. A word of caution though and a special reference to the Khamer Rouge. 

We have similar nomenclature in the assignment of titles and names for the liberators (001,002,003 and so on). This incidentally is the same usage that the people in Cambodia used for their leaders. 

In addition to this, we are pushing for a drive towards agriculture. 

Too simplistic? Maybe! But there is a corresponding drive and loathing amongst some towards the village life. Even if many seem to have developed the ability to handle life on both sides. Making visits to the rural areas when the seasons permit, there is still very little that people see on that front. The discovery of minerals and other natural resources has helped but challenges arising from leadership and structure and especially the delicate relationship between cultural leaders and the central government will continue to cause headaches. 

Another possible challenge is regards the pace at which technology is beginning adopted and the possibilities that exist in industry. 

Concerned about budget allocations in Uganda?

It's been a few months since the release of the budget of the next financial year. At first glance it seems as though the same casualties have come to the surface in the search for desperately needed revenue. 

While we are still rather busy trying to deal with the challenge of an overly enthusiastic parliament (in terms of size) there is no shortage of interest groups from which we can demand attention. 

Some argue that instead of creating an interest group for every significant member of society, we need instead to have few representatives with much broader mandates or manifestos to cover the broad needs of their constituents. 

Similar thinking has lead to thoughts around the generation of revenue.

The idea is not so much about targeting these groups for cash, but using their thoughts in planning so that budgets are prepared with people at the core. 

Maybe this is what the Ministry Of Finance had in mind when they created the whole proud get process. A brief visit to their Internet sight will reveal that around July August, there is what is referred to as the Medium Term Expenditure framework and portfolio error performance review. 

Then in about October and November they have what they call the first budget consultative workshop. This caters for what I referred to as the interest groups but MInistry of Finance calls them Sector Working Groups which gather with alongside local government to prepare Budget Frameworks Papers (BFPs).

There is then further consultation with different ministries to create the daft of the budget framework paper. 

Approval from cabinet then presentation to stakeholders is the next step. This takes place at National Budget Workshop-public expenditure review meeting. 

Fatal budget framework paper is the presented to parliament on the 1st of April (it is made up of the background to the budget and development of estimates).

Finally the draft estimates of revenue and expenditure are presented to the parliamentary budget committee on the 15th of June. 

There are therefore about two major opportunities for your participation 

1. Public Expenditure Review Meeting 

2. First consultative workshop for local governments and sector working groups. 

ICT association of Uganda or the consortium of ICT organizations or the ICT Cluster of Uganda can then present their suggestions for government and make suggestions towards the Alloation of funds in different areas. 

In addition to presentations made as sector groups, direct influence thought their respective ministries can also benefit the budget process. 

Understanding China and Her Hatred of Opium

It is about 1839 or thereabouts. China is at a peak of its development (Qing Dyansty) and currently dealing with the British who are managing trade as well as expansion through contacts with the East India Company. There is a bit of an imbalance in trade with the British and the diplomatic Chinese are having a blast. After some skillful strategizing, the British manage to get their product into the Chinesae market fueling a war and a set of negotiations that cause a reversal of fortunes for the British and the change of the trade dynamics. A letter is sent to the reigning British Monarch which is ignored and misunderstood. The letter written by a representative from the Chinese government, expresses some of the Chinese displeasure over the current conditions and the trade in a comodity that is unwelcome by the Chinese. The letter is full of references to Chinese anger (penalties) and warnings and even suggestions reagarding other possiblities of trade (wheat,tea,rhubarb). The port of choice is no different from the current port and city (back then a central port of entry for ships and traders). The first war takes place lasting about a year and then takes place again later on in 1856 or thereabouts. This time there is French involvement and more casualties on the British side. There is also a fallout amongst the Rich and the Poor of China who have began to engage in Opium related activities. The changes in trade as well as other un-forseen circumstances are taken to be causes of the fall of a Dynasty and the resignation of a rather influential emperor. The troubles that arise in this corner of the world cannot be taken in isolation and much of what takes place here is repeated in other Monarchies as in Russia with the decline of the Romanov Dynasty. Even if revolutionary changes begin to take place in the region and other systems take their place, battles over history and significance will continue to rage in Faculties of History headed by modern day generals or professors. It is therefore no wonder that in the present day, Chinese disdain for drugs and Opium to be more precise is still as strong as it was almost 150 years ago. Maybe other countries need to understand the direct effects that this substance caused in the decline of a powerful dynasty and the traces of this defeat that are still alive in the Chinese Psyche.

The Blame Game and the Genetic Code-Hegemony

There is something strange about the playground and the dynamics of growing up. There big guy is seldom the bully...if you pay close attention he is often used by a smaller guy whose size does not seem to limit the depths of his ambition. He ( the little guy) veils his inadequacies by controlling others and successfully manages to control and manipulate the bigger guy into doing his dirty work. 

This is China's dilemma. He is simply the bigger guy who everyone watches and blames while a littler guy gets away with all the planning and dirty work. So how do we identify the little guy in order to ease the tension on China. 

This week the premier spoke quite clearly about China's DNA and the idea that it is not written into the people's code to exercise rule over others. 

So what does the future look like. The dragon (revered in the East but feared and shunned in the West) is a useful symbol in understanding Chinese Psyche but statements by the German leader about the it's rise in the future have done little to assuage these fears. 

I suspect that the future will bring about more thoughts about different civilizations that marked ancient China...and even date I say thoughts but a revival of the Ancient Rulers. Strange that a Hong Kong billionaire has recently sought to create a prize of his own (which he is calling the Tang Prize) to rival the Nobel Prize. This could be a sign of a desire to revive not the Kings necessarily, but the individual civilizations in their glory. 

So what shape or form does the little bully take?

Is it communism? A concept that was developed by the Russians and that helped shape Chinese thinking. Or maybe thoughts from France regarding revolution which were also responsible for displacing the ruling class and helping refocus the population towards the working class.

The challenge is that the blame will fall on the bigger guy and he will have to face a barrage of insults until the power or force behind him is identified. What is strange about this is that 

China's size and her needs for energy and resources (especially food) places her in a place of vulnerability so that none of what she does in defense of her freedoms or territories can be seen as anything but aggression. Her smaller neighbors on the other hand, can do as they please and lay the blame on their larger neighbor. 

My suggestion- watch her smaller neighbors..Taiwan and Tibet. They may have the key to understanding her aggression. 

The Game and The Politics

It is interesting to watch the interplay between politics and soccer.
Politics and governance seems to produce to effects in its citizens.
There is always a group that choses to leave. It may have experienced a little oppression or may feel little or limited hope in a system that is skewed against its particular clan or language group.
Then there is another select portion that is just adventurous and that has a pioneering spirit. All that and a some extra cash. Moving to a foreign country can be a costly measure. Sometimes this same group often has to pay for this trip with scarce resources and then invests all its hopes in one member. The price of this venture is often land (scare, valuable and treasured). 

Then there are those who stay because leadership often flows in relationships and benefits those with the right name.
Along this group though is another that stays because it has not choice. You must watch this group because it has its stake on the land and its resources and contributes directly using its sweat and tears. Scriptural reference to plows and pruning hooks is written for this group not those who govern and lead using other methods.

At the heart of this struggle is the idea that some still celebrate independence while others are a little too smart to believe the hype. Interestingly, the Amazon has produced very few tribes that have lasted this long using compromise.   

Post independence struggles have instead created a patronage system that progresses by compromise.

Soccer has created similar results. What you have are a few who brave the seas and endure that abuse to find a spot in a good football club. After the struggle many often return to take center stage but facing the difficulty of creating a united front. The challenge for this group is uniting with the group that stays and that feels like it has right to the stage too.

The teams which these guys play for too, have something that they can teach us. Firstly, they are often are not easily led because of a preference for foreign coaches. The feeling is that they are often 'better', but i suspect that the skills they offer have nothing to do with this. Our populations are better led by foreigners with little or no knowledge of our practices because they can judge us entirely on performance. Local coaches on the other hand can be seen to be partial even if they are just as capable.  

It is interesting to watch the current scene of players as it splits between colonial master and colonized.
Well funded and not so well funded.
Maybe at this point it is most important to realize that one is competent enough to find their way onto the Center stage and to have an impact.  

The Dragon's Den

A few weeks ago i posted the linked to an podcast about
the importance of establishing hegemony and the 'conversation' that is taking place between the U.S and China. I am new to this stuff but it was amazing how much flexibility the Americans have enjoyed around the world.

We have not experienced China's rise and the use of her influence at least not in the full regard. What we seem to have seen here, is the expression of her strength economically and in her ability to drive African development...with no apparent strings attached. The Americans though have emerged with new technology which is changing the manner in which war are fought. But limitations in this regard still mean that at the end of the day, boots still matter.

How quickly technology can recreate the soldier so that men can merge with machines or at least imitate the boots on the ground is an argument for another blog. What is clear though is that China's need for resources and the size of her populations along with her eventual military muscle will soon overtake her need for soft power. We are seeing some expressions of this in the Far East as smaller powers cower at the dragon's tail and its desire for more resources.

It is no wonder the unimagined is now happening and the Vietnamese are now embracing and courting the American's who...not too long ago they successfully resisted.

Maybe this time around the younger Vietnamese will rekindle the flames of their long gone heroes to launch a similar resistance but times have changed and military battles are not fought with ordinary weapons. Vietnam has been challenged though and this time around America in not facing the same Russian foe. 

The Author of the podcast stated that one of the advantages of establishing a regional hegemony was that it gives you freedom to roam...unchallenged.

Conflicts that arise will therefore be linked to other nations that challenge one's ability to roam freely and the exert influence and in our case affect access to resources.
The American public is exhausted but its military industrial complex is booming. Clearly the drone is as significant a development in the History of warfare as was the Oxbow, Catapault, firearm and later on the Mechanized Vehicle. 

A word of caution. The party is much bigger than the individual and care must be taken to ensure that sensitivities within the Chinese psyche are considered (loosing face). So be very careful never to rebuke or challenge your foreign friends publicly. The last thing on their minds is messing you up and loosing face. If you have to let them deal with their own challenges.

There is an interesting development in Korean History and Chinese History where three kingdom mergers came to the fore. Every time powerful kingdoms met with other Kingdoms (or their religious manifestations), they each faced the challenge of disunity (internally rising from groups that had to chose who to follow) and the choice toward unity for all smaller kingdoms under one banner. In Uganda, the Ganda, Ankole, Soga and Bunyoro Kingdoms faced similar challenges.

In the early nineteen hundreds, choices had to be made between reigning monarch and factions that were pro British (protestant), French (catholic), or even Arab (muslim). The casualties were many but the results devastating. There was a failure to realize that none of the groups that came to 'evangelize' were independent from governments that sent them and that none was insulated from the desire for resources and trade.   

Good Idea bad press.

Its been about four weeks since the launch of a new project to help register Ugandans. The project is a great idea but also a challenge for the new head of the Internal Affairs Ministry.

Around the time of the previous elections, we became familiar with the new system and many of us indeed did brave the process,long lines, photos and finger printing that came with this project. It is highly doubtful that the Germans that helped manage this project could have failed in its execution (but that is just my opinion regarding the effectiveness of our Bavarian Friends). But that is besides the point.

The ads that are running in some media outlets are rather discouraging especially for someone who has lived in other countries (Kenya, Uganda and South Africa?). For starters, the ad refers to kitambulisho which is an infamous term that those who lived in Kenya in the early eighties are all to aware of. At the time, many Ugandans were living as refugees and fears were ripe about the possibilities of being deported to a country that at the time was rather unstable and still recovering.

The Kenyans too had similar encounters although their experiences predated independence and were more common in the class system that separated blacks from white and that brought about the rise of the Mau Mau movement.

As the gap between rich and poor grows larger and as a revival of precolonial tendencies seems to reemerge, i suspect that we will find ourselves battling our old colonial demons.

Another common reference that has fueled many concerns amongst historians and common citizens is the return of late seventies systems of leadership and law enforcement that were referred to as panda gari. At the heart of some of this concern was the use of the Swahili language which was often used by liberators but that was also used by rowdy and undisciplined soldiers to intimidate the populace.

Hard core ganda loyalists were therefore often anti-swahili because they seemed to have borne the brunt of the force.

South Africa comes into mind because more and more Africans seem to look on her as a liberator of sorts mainly because of the work of men like Madiba. Others though have seemed more doubtful about the true demonstration of these freedoms and have accused the ANC of failing to deliver and instead consolidating power into political hands. South Africa has relevance because here too, the concept of Kitambulisho came to the fore and was fiercely resisted by the vibrant populations.

Machiavelli: Religion and Politics

In this installment on power and politics, I will deal briefly with Machiavelli

And his suggestions for leaders and their relationship with Religion.

I will attempt to give it a little bit of context by restricting some of these discussions to UG. 

He was writing a little like the Arabian Nights story. He know his life was in danger and his success and progress in the hands of that influential Italian Family rested in his ability to demonstrate just how useful he was going to be. 

Recently, we faced an election in a resistance movement stronghold-Luwero. Experts and historians say that this triangle was used to help begin the resistance war that ushered in the new regime. This is described as a historical stronghold of the Democratic Party which was Catholic. The Uganda Peoples Congress was accused of rigging an election and was enjoying a second phase in power when the current president-then rebel took to the bush. 

While the current women representative elections seems to have little effect on larger political questions, there is an attempt to restore or amalgamate politics around religion. 

In the game of chess, as I have written before(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/mr-no-regrets.html), the master strategist has to make sure that he allies his king and queen with a religious stronghold on both sides of the monarchy. Even if we seldom admit it, religion has played a major role in dictating the manner in which our kingdoms and run and the delicate means by which successors to the throne are determined. The Protestants realized this long ago and chose to focus the thrust of thief religious authority on the monarchy. 

In UG, most of our seven hills have sets to our most significant religious systems. Old Kampala for the Muslims, Namirembe for the Protestants, and  for the Catholics. It is also important to note that corresponding medical centers were also established at this key points in the city. 

While the Kingdom reasons rather silent on issues of loyalty often the news is awash with stories of martyrdom and a bloody history of Kings who clashed with subjects that put religion of kingdom. 

But the battle rages on. Countries like the Philippines have taken on a tougher stance with their governments and have been actively involved in politics perhaps even taking on the role of kingmaker. 

Here the balance is much more delicate. I suspect though that religion will take centre stage in the battle for leadership and influence. 

Maybe more camels(land cruisers) will exchange hands. Maybe like in some previous posts the emergence of new leadership in Anglican circles will begin to look frighteningly similar to district level elections

(http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/02/when-religious-appointment-meets.html). We wait to see! 

Plowshares into Swords?

Plowshares into Swords?

Every time trouble breaks out in these parts, and a struggle begins, you immediately have the emergence of two groups. A group that chooses to stay and fight and one that chooses to leave.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/PeoplePower/Lupembe--How-presidents-Lule--Binaisa-were-juggled/-/689844/2318542/-/4lmu90/-/index.html the article by Henry Lubega has some interesting similarities to this very idea. The difference though, is that these are being played out in a different context. 

Even if some could argue that there is no overt push towards and struggle similar to that of the eighties, certain challenges in the economy have forced many to leave and the harder core to stay. 

These differences have resulted in an interesting relationship between those who by circumstance have decided to work in foreign countries while supporting relatives and friends back home. The tensions that have arisen on the return of the former are still as palpable as those that were mentioned in the article by Lubega. 

There are some ways in which Post World War I and II, nations have been forced more that ever to devise other means by which to annihilate each other and even if the effects are often less gruesome they are still as effective and damaging if not more. In a sense, most of our modern day battles have become economic. The fallout from these battles has been an increase in poetry and a rise in real estate for ghettos and shanty towns. 

So the need to better circumstances has driven us abroad in search of better pastures. While many are unwilling to turn their plowshares into swords, they have none the less held on to these tools in preparation for a change of circumstance. 

Opposition 2.0

The accolades that big hat has managed to accumulate through the years are numerous and varied.
Some say that one of his biggest achievements has been in managing to fund a revolution movement entirely with the populace-no simple task.

A few weeks ago i stumbled across an interesting description of a change in focus. It involves a move from fighting bush wars to instead a battle for service delivery.

In the past i have lamented about the challenges of peacetime and the complexities of urban warfare, many have come up with innovative strategies that have been used to engage ruling governments.

I also expressed concern about how open revolutions were easier to squash precisely because they were exposed. And that the opposite was much more difficult because this type often forced your foes to think and plan and act clandestinely.

I think that at the heart of these strategies is the issue of disruption. Even if we often laud peaceful protest as a necessity in democracy it also inevitably leads to some agitation. The protester and activist often work with the press to help highlight some problem and if possible get access to a neat little spot on prime time.

Since we are going to assume that the populace comes first, then our battle must be to ensure that they have their needs met and that services they pay for and have earned are un-interrupted.

So when you think about Opposition 2.0 pay close attention to activity that attempts to stop the flow of business, health and security. These will probably be manifestations of fresh expressions of an opposition that must contend with an inability to wage conventional warfare.    

Nigeria gets her groove back: Reconstruction has a Rethink

In Uganda we are dealing with 20 plus years of an insurgency in the North whose effects are now being experienced regionally.
We have had some help from the Americans (from of their elite military units) and am sure the military establishment here has gained a lot.

I guess my interest piqued after hearing reports about the renewed search for J.K. (Of Northern Uganda fame) and while i am glad that we are receiving 'help', i fear that the help has been masked by shame and has caused an opening of doors to foreign military elements and intelligence officials who would never have been allowed into a country like Nigeria. All of this while Nigeria is reporting tremendous progress and growth.

The bottom line is that in Uganda and Central Africa, Somalia, and other dense forested areas foreign military teams are still rather disabled and will use this opportunity to benefit themselves.   

So while we lament about government's seeming inaction in Nigeria...and rightly so, we must not forget that our American friends are still yet to deal with their own challenges in a industry that brings in Billions of Dollars and does a little bit more than just abduct young girls.

So we are in a bit of a dilemma. Our regions and countries have become spots of contention for turf wars and we have become attractive positions for proxy wars.


We are a little different from the Nigerians in our approach in that, we have also attempted to drive many reconstruction efforts in the Northern Area of Uganda. My suggestion for the Nigerian government is that they use the Ugandan model in their battles with Boko Haram. I am not suggesting that we can teach the Nigerian military much of anything. Heck we send many of our generals to military schools in Nigeria. What i think we can help demonstrate is the value of our reconstruction efforts and how in some sense they have helped ease the burdens on our northern brothers. 

The Nigerian have an interesting system that allows for a shift in authority between the predominantly Muslim North and the Largely Christian South. It is a rotation of sorts which allows for a delicate balance to be maintain between the two major religious groups.

I think that there must be a greater push to develop the North of Nigeria and to think about fresh terms if the Executive is for some reason cut short (as was the case the previous government). As i have also suggested before, Educational Reform is not too much to ask for given the rate of unemployment and the reported level of corruption. I think certain aspects of this form of negotiation would also help pull the idealogical rag from underneath the feet of the Boko Haram.

Anything short of this threatens to result in a rise in copy cat crimes fueled by the attention this group has received from the media even after a seeming lull in revolt and response from the Ogoni tribe and the much earlier Biafra group.

Advice-Please be careful about who you allow into your country. Focus on your current victories and celebrate them...continue to fight for African Solutions to African Problems. Rethink the manner in which you educate your children. Allow your cultural values to supersede those of your religions.

    

Terrorism and the decline of ordinary things

The arrival of a new dawn seems to have ushered in a fresh list of challenges and resulted in a corresponding loss of previously innocent items or terms.

There was a time i thought about getting a pressure cooker to speed up the challenges of cooking then Boston happened.

There was a time i thought nothing about taking a walk with my backpack now i have to think twice and if possible purchase one that displays the contents for all to see.

Then i remember the day when a pair of box cutters made a massive difference when doing little tasks in the office. Well cannot travel with that anymore.

I certainly will not be able to dial emergency while in the U.S without giving thought to the Twin Towers.

Then there is the ominous hood which was a style statement for a while until Zimmerman came into the picture.

Thinking about a casual visit to the U.S embassy? Not me
last time i did that was in 1998. From that time onwards the sound of a banging door or anything close to it would paralyze those who are nursing those memories.

What about the world cup? Not here in Uganda certainly. We have to think about how we spend our leisure and who we spend it with.

A visit to the market? Certainly not in Nigeria or here for that matter.

What about our culturally relevant transport systems in Kenya. Well those are not safe any more either.

Are any of us ever going to look at a journey to the mall as an ordinary event? I am not!

Subtleties of the Street Protests

There are certain groups in Uganda which are pushing for reform in the political space. Some have watched Egypt and Tunisia and attempted to draw lessons from these events. It will be difficult to replicate the spontaneity of many of those protests and to maintain the pace for change. The confrontation has two sides. Government and Opposition Government and its response: Public Spaces In Uganda we watched as our Tahrir square was cordoned off. It sits strategically at the heart of the city and in proximity to the courts of law. It is rather small and cannot accommodate a large populace. But it is still a significant space and is for now a no go area. Public Gatherings In addition to this, a law was put in place to stifle freedom and gatherings. Even if enforcement will be hard, this law is designed to prevent groups of people gathering together without the knowledge of the authorities. Media Maybe our neighbors in Kenya had similar fears when they attempted to restrict media freedoms by creating stiff penalties for their media houses and media personalities. Uganda had faced similar threats and it became common to encounter the ominous disclaimer (the views expressed on this radio station are not...). NGOs Our Civil Society Organization which were beginning to flex, also found themselves cornered like their Egyptian and Russian counterparts whose loyalty to the state was questioned. In Uganda though, there was a change of guard (in preference for a military man-Gen. Aronda Nyakairima-who replaced Hillary Onek in the Internal Affairs Ministry). Even if parliament put up a stiff fight against his selection (questioning the general's ability to hold both military position and ministry or cabinet post). The Opposition and its response A Change of Tactics We have heard a lot more talk regarding activism. As a result the opposition came up with Walk to Work Campaigns (which many ordinary people do everyday sans fanfare). The University as Open Ground In addition to this we have seen the politicization of learning areas. This is tragic because the quality of our education has suffered. One almost has to watch the Guild elections with as much interest as parliamentary elections. The students nursing political ambitions have also seen their universities as key entry points into politics. Entry into Media Activism is a useful way of getting the message across but the goal of a lot of these activities has been to capture the attention of key people and to find access to the front pages. Access to Finance Access to finance has been restricted to the ruling party and has in some way affected the 'discussion'. Shifting alliances are based on the desire to make a quick buck which makes sense given some of the frustrations in the economy. Conclusions Maybe the government has proven to be victorious. But what it must deal with is the challenge that will arise with dealing with an invisible Tahrir sqaure! The battle for control is on in the police and and there have been attempts to win the support of the people (even if this is what crowds do). Heroes have emerged where land ownership issues have arisen. What you have is pretty much the same circumstances without the square but with shifting loyalties among generals and other leaders. In addition to there has been a fallout amongst key business groups like the Taxi owners and operators and Boda Bodas as well as Traders.

Machiavelli On Crime and Politics

In this previous post we had a synopsis with a list of several personalities that were used in the structure of the book and my corresponding projections of the key characteristics or thoughts that they demonstrate on leadership.

http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-return-of-machiavelli-politics-of.html

There are two of importance which fall under the category of crime but which must be separated on the role that crime plays in politics.

1. The use of political control using crime.
5. The use of political power through crime.

The first and fifth points are both about crime but need to be separated. The first involves the rise or creation of political space despite crime. As in the case of Scripture, the realization that poverty is always going to be part of life and the need therefore to live despite this ("the poor you will always have with you!"). The second refers to a marriage between crime and politics and the possible creation of counter cultures to exist alongside systems that are perceived as flawed.

In the former the politician taps into the need for security in his populace and promises to make the city safe for them as a result. While he seems genuine in his intentions, what varies is the degree of crime and the level at which the Judiciary can be utilized or manipulated to suit his needs. He controls the system while being a part of it. He has learned the language and the rhetoric that goes with governance.

The latter does the same except because he is not part of the system. He uses crime to manipulate the system and to extract monies in exchange for safety. Because his system is flawed he manages to create business which can be used to create parallel economies and which can keep loyalties within the system. As a result he can promise results and pull back his troops at the same time. Certain frustrations in some countries where guilty men are set free and examples of the latter where the politician is inseparable for a crime ridden system. A key characteristic of these systems is a rise in Mob Justice.

A police force has database and a list of felons and their finger prints. Once a crime is committed they simply access this database for possible culprits. Once in while, certain national needs will arise which will require certain citizens with certain 'skills' and the likelihood of pardons. The question whether rehabilitation really takes place and if change is really possible then arises.