The week that was

Protect the prophet and his mantle. 

This week i heard an interesting message from the Anglican camp in which the Archbishop warned the church and its leaders against misusing their office and their authority. There was a danger, he said of loosing the prophetic voice- which was going to be crucial in establishing the place and position of the church of God in this part of the political dispensation.  

The folded arms of an Eastern Uganda Stalwart

Perhaps I was reading a little too much from all if this. But during some of the speeches post elections in the Forum for Democratic Change, there was a image of Nandala Mafabi hands folded, watching the dialogues and speeches from both Col. Kizza Besigye and Gen. Mugisha Muntu. It is too great a task to read his mind. But there are possibilities that in our culturally sensitive region much of his thoughts were wandering about the previous race for the top seat in the FDC. This as you remember took place between the Eastern stalwart and his colleague with proven military experience. 

The attempt to shift the centre of political gravity

Camp Kazigo made some interesting attempts to move the battle to the hills of Bugisu. In his mind, he was trying to take the nation back to a point where he and his colleagues had began some major parts of their battle for the 'liberation' of the country...and I do use that term loosely. He was allowed to move unhindered perhaps with a view of testing the waters to see how much of a pull he would be able to effect. Critics later on would state that the bulk of the attendees were actually main stream opposition groups who would have showed up regardless of who was making the grand appearance. 

Activism versus Structure 

The elections took place after some very interesting political debates managed well by Charles Mwanguhya Mpagi and brought to the citizens courtesy of NTV and a host of Non Governmental Organizations. 

On the whole we could argue that the delegates chose the confrontational style of the previous party president over the cool and collected General. Sandwiched between the two was the man from Bugisu waiting patiently for an opportunity to make his mark on the democratic space but probably feeling crowded out by the western conference. 

Generational challenges and the resistance movement 

So local experts began to talk about what they referred to as a battle between the old guard and the young Turks. Newbies who are itching for an opportunity to take the wheel. In the meantime the proverbial queue (references were made to this when the Blue eyed boy-Kazigo began to think and act as Big Hat's Successor) was brought back to our memory. And so the young ones were also accused of trying to skip the queue. 

Leadership and covering-a crisis in camp Balokole?

So there was a battle that spilled over into some of our tabloids. In my view it is a struggle regarding growth, leadership and methods. Someone begins to grow and his growth affects all those around him. The son begins to rise and his development seems to counter the productivity of his peers. At the heart of this battle is a concern over the registration of the church and parachurch groups. 

Does any organization have the right to register churches that are not in the mainstream (Catholic, Anglican, Lutheran, Orthodox) under any banner other than the Spiritual Banner and the direct lordship of Jesus Christ? 

Is it fair to register churches under the same group that regulates the working and management of Non-governmental Organizations? 

To be fair to the government, we have to realize that we live in a region that is rather susceptible to cults and cultish movements. 

Because we have struggled to see the release of reports from strongholds such as Kanungu (where Kazigo has a leadership edge), it is natural that in some circle fears abound as to the effectiveness of government and its oversight over religion. 

Liberation Movements and Revolutionary Moves 

The leading opposition movement or liberation movement or rebel movement is the Lord's Resistance Army and has its roots in Northern Uganda. No other group has presented so much of a challenge to the broader narrative of the National Resistance Movement (especially with its credentials in the bush). If push comes to shove, and the ballot box loses its value and significance, there will be a resurgence of the LRA. 

There will also and we have already seen this be a rise in militias. This is not on the whole a bad thing. Because we in Africa tend to see everything American as divine, we at some point will begin to think in terms of the Second Amendment (see my  blog titled skirting the issue). Which broadly speaking was defined to help American 

Citizens to think critically about their constitution and their right to protect it. There is a huge part of ones population that needs to be involved in some form of political empowerment. In Kenya the government has revived the National Youth Service. What is really good about this is that the youth are armed not with sticks but with spades (the beating of plowshares to swords comes much later after the young people have gained an appreciation of the core income generating activities as well as the value of Agribusiness in national development. 

One of the reasons why there has been some difficulty in accepting K.B and M.M and other generals as valid opposition figures has been the inability of the People to perceive them as anything but NRM people. This is why there is always talk about Big hat and his plants or spies that are sent out to monitor opposition groups and why in some circles leadership at the top of some of the major parties has seemed to always have a western (Uganda) leaning. 

That said M7 was always smart enough to learn and use and adapt to whatever situation he came into. So he learnt from the Democratic Party, UPC as well as from colleagues and friends in Tanzania, Mozambique and even Kenya. 

The Forth Estate Comes of Age- the lady and the trump

When a historic group of un-biased observers come under attack, we have to begin to prepare from a massive seismic shift in events. News of the World-Rupert Murdoch and the possibility of more closures in the future? Extremes of one perceived estate? 

Maybe this is what causes such a flood of attention for Donal Trump. 

He came onto the scene in an age of reality TV. A time where the line between perception and truth became blurred. Experts told us that the very act of watching an event changes it's state and behavior. So we wonder how much of what we see if reality and how much how much is truth. 

I justified the Apprentice series by noting that in our day, the CEO could not leave independent of social life and media scrutiny and that therefore a series that allowed people to submit job offers in public and sit in board rooms amidst the cameras made some sense. 

And so we sat mesmerized and even took notes and dreaded those words...you are fired! 

So I wonder if in the choice of team we will have yet another event run by one of the stations in the U.S in which the most notable names in the business will compete for a chance to run the candidates 'winning' campaign. 

You cannot watch the events unfold without thinking how much of an effect this one man will have on the issue of suffrage. 

I do not know how many times I have sat on a screen watching the news and it's presentation without fearing that much of my interest was fueled by an unfortunate misuse of one genders advantage over another...at least in terms of appeal! 

Quietly I wondered if my African upbringing was at war with the American way where jocks and cheerleaders rule the day and not geeks. But there were troubling undertones and fears that many geeks would have their way in an age of vengeance and at a time when gun laws and rock music and game consoles were running the show. 

But I digress. 

The point is for some unfortunate reason I was paying more attention to pretty presenters than truthful ones and believing that perhaps truth and beauty had signed a deal. 

While presenters sat shifting nervously to conceal certain parts their anatomy while trying to give their analysis I felt constantly that they were being betrayed. 

So a reported exchange took place between a presenter and a media mogul and she clearly stood no chance. The trump was much too skilled in getting attention and raising the ratings. 

Then I remembered that perhaps the most valuable thing in a woman's psyche apart the nurturing instinct is her look. Standing before her and running for the top job was the man who has managed over the years to put a bulk of his finance behind one of the most important dates in the Female Calender-Miss Universe! 

I cannot be blamed for thinking at least in this respect that this man is a formidable foe. If not for the presidency but for perceptions of femininity in general. 

Lying Low

We were sitting for the final art exam after three vigorous years of training. 

The British system and it's methods of testing was designed to test your skills but also your ability to follow instructions. If I remember correctly the question was about the use of number 1-9 to create a abstract piece (painting). 

There were students three types of students. Those who were skilled and who needed very little practice to prove so. Then there were those who would be forced to follow the instructions a little more in addition to their limited skills. Then there was a group who struggle in the background and  through the term only to emerge and flourish at the end as victors. 

My friend M was part of the last group. He walked into the room and used the energy of the rest of the students to create something good causing him to ace the exam as one of the few top final results. 

I too was fortunate because I followed the instructions and combined that with some skill and training. 

The race of the white house could produce someone from the last category. 

A candidate that is smart enough not too say too much while using the energy of those who are front runners in the race to create a last minute strategy and plan. In the previous post we alluded to this while talking about pace setters. Migratory birds use formations to ensure that they use a limited amount of energy to fly long distances. Candidates that are known can suffer much more attack precisely because they draw attention to themselves. But the choice to fly low can prove disastrous in campaigns that call for so much visibility. 

We have not seen too much of the social media drive that fueled B.H.O's drive for the presidency or the involvement of young people, nor have we seen the massive voter registration forces that reignited interest in the electoral process for black minorities. 

What we see though is a gathering storm that will focus our attention south of the Mason Dixon line and at the borders predominantly affecting hispanic minorities-an interesting and growing voter block. 

We have also seen concerns about voter registration rules for Identification affecting African Americans as well as fall out from the Katrina Disaster that has brought about marked shift in numbers (100,000 black residents from affected areas have not returned ) ten years after the disaster. 

So the deal with Cuba is important because it helps generate much needed income flow but critically, it has alienated some of the countries historic local allies and dissidents. But also changed the dynamics of immigration, economics and trade.

You could argue that the deal with Cuba has done what some believe could happen if the debate to legalize medical marijuana in states such as Colorado is carried through causing a decline in the narcotics trade south of the Rio Grande. 

The low lying candidate therefore needs to have the pulse of the people. 

He/ she needs to know what the numbers are on immigration and the affects of the much needed reform on agriculture and trade in the southern states. 

He/she needs to have the numbers regarding movement and migration in disaster prone areas and implications of these movements on voting. 

He/she needs to know the complexities of race relations in mid-western states and the corresponding legislation that deal with the same. 

He/she needs to be able to harness new media tools for an emerging generation but also balance these with old school town hall meetings for older more influential groups. 

Pacesetters and front runners

In a season when athletes are taking centre stage, I cannot help but think about the five and ten thousand meter races. These metes often have to be governed by pacesetters. These are usually experienced but retired runners who are paid to make sure that the participants stay within a time frame. These times are flashed across the screen and at specific points in the race to make sure that the runners can achieve goals and if need be break records. 

I think this is a fitting description for the race to the white house as it stands. There have been few front runners who have sailed right through the initial party nominations all the way to the 'finals' in most cases, were shielded by the rest (like migratory birds in flying in formation) only to emerge towards the end to achieve the victory. 

So while encouraged by the appearances and attention drawn by Hillary Clinton on the democratic side and Donald Trump on the republican side, there is a possibility that all they are doing is setting the pace for the rest of the runners. 

It is also interesting to note that a ten year anniversary of the Katrina 

disaster (a hurricane that ripped through the State State of Louisiana and possibly turned the tide of the U.S public opinion) has brought about the appearance of the former presidents club of Bill Clinton (D) and George Walker Bush (R). Strategic because both pulled off a controversial eight year terms and both are bound to support the bids by close family members Jeb Bush (R) and Hillary Clinton (D). 

The pacesetters have therefore helped bring certain issues to the fore. 

While the end of the first of two presidential terms is often useful in creating some breathing room, it also presents a shift of thinking focusing on legacy. The battles to cripple the presidency (using shut downs and jerry-mandering) were a mark of these eight years and have been further amplified by determinations by the bulk of the republican candidates (aspirants) to reverse by decree many of this current presidents rulings. 

So the return to Louisiana is significant because it involves the passage back in time where the Republicans can attempt to reclaim their southern territory (bible belt) while the democrats prove their worth and demonstrate to the people in the south that the choice of change was the right decision. In my view, both parties being political animals have to defend their claims using some of the most valuable pieces in their arsenal. 

But while this is significant, these are not the issues at the centre of race as it stands and as presented by the media. 

But this weeks appearances of the 'former presidents club' have placed these two presidents into part of the pacesetter groups if only vicariously. 

We have not engaged directly with Hillary Clinton but she seems to have benefitted from the media attention...or at least she should try to. Maybe a key to this race for her campaign will be in returning to the battle between herself and Barack Hussein Obama and sifting through the noise to see why his version of change was more preferable to her version of the same. Him being an African American and her being a woman (both beneficiaries of constitutional amendments for civil rights and suffrage). 

My guess is that his subscription to the change message worked both against the republicans (and his views regarding their failures) as well as against his democratic foe (who by being in the white house for eight years-albeit as wife, was also viewed as being part of the establishment). 

The battle for the nomination is complex enough for party members and at some point the needs of the whole must be sacrificed for the one. Which is why the entrance of 16 participants in the republican race is such a challenge to call. 

Part of the battle could end up being for the house and for the senate especially if the white house is offered on the altar of sacrifice. But the brutality of coalitions is something few of us want to see. 

Immigration, Race relations in general, The economy, U.S foreign policy, Gun control. 

Regional cooperation and freedoms?

Wondering about the implications of regional cooperation on freedoms in general.

I wrote all of this because as I have mentioned before, there seems to be a replication of ideas in this region by NGOs, Opposition Parties as well as Civil Society Groups. In one of the article I mentioned how Strikes of medical personnel and teachers in Uganda, were being replicated by colleagues in Kenya and Tanzania. I also mentioned how advocacy campaigns by local opposition groups were also finding their way into certain sections of Tanzania (Activists for Change-A4C). Government too was in on the game and had began to introduce complex and costly legislative rules that would make it harder for journalists especially those with an investigative lens to challenge leaders (Kenya). In addition to this back in the home space I also found that a law had been introduced that was designed to make it hard of large gatherings to occur and at least give the government a head start in nipping in the bud any attempts to opposition groups to achieve momentum (public order management bill). 

While these occurrences took place quite a while back, we had a visit from BHO. Soon after that another left handed head of state showed up. His trip was interesting because he addressed parliament and met some important business leaders. But he also took a few jabs at the Opposition. 

His position back at home is complex and he is running government with a coalition (predominantly tribal in nature feeding off of Kenya's strange tendency to coagulate around its regional and language groups). 

In what I have referred to as schizophrenic-like foreign policy responses that pit one branch of government against another, we had no mention of the "choices have consequences" message of the assistant to the secretary of state for African Affairs J.C. 

Instead lawns were mowed and lectures were delivered to African Presidents.

But it was good to see that our man could hold his own against the great eagle and the star spangled banner (nothing against either). And as I have stated in another tweet, it was also good to see the younger man being affirmed by Kenya's second president (a trained teacher) as well as the country's third (an accomplished Economist). 

I was not certain what to make of the message delivered to the Uganda's Opposition. My concern was that the little space that was left was shrinking and that any hope of receiving assistance from Neighboring countries was suddenly vanishing. If this works against the Opposition for now, it will work against the leaders in the future. Because markets are designed around safety the time will come (if the pan African dream is realized) when the presidents will find themselves demoted to senators and their nations to states as the African Union takes shape merging the vast size and potential of our economies with some form of government. The question is where will we place our capital. 

Over to you!

Trouble in Camp Resistance

When we last had this discussion there was a lot of buzz in the media regarding two bulls in the proverbial kraal. The NTV news (part of the nation media group) had some award winning images where the Big Hat and the Kazigo were caught avoiding each other's gazes. Later on, much of this got a little exhausting with each trying to out do the other. 

From sources in our distinguished press as well as other groups, I chose to create a summary of my own of what I view as some key areas. I called it the battle for the western front because many of us are rather uncomfortable with yet another shift in the western region. We may welcome a change in power but in a frighteningly sectarian and tribal  region we wanted to see say a Karamoja or an Iteso rise. Like the Kenyans we were glad to see the throne return to son of the Father of the Nation but we were also itching to see what kind of difference say a Kamba, Luo, Luhya would make. 

King Makers (international).

We were curious why certain people chose to visit the U.K and why certain media houses were keen to have interviews with the top contenders (British Broadcasting Cooperation as well as Chatham 

House). What they were communicating is that there were certain circles which one had to be familiar with internationally, in order to gain any kind of access to power (all things remaining constant). 

Kings Makers (local).

Locally we identified churches (for both Catholics and Christians) as well as Muslims. The battle for these groups was bound to be much more muddy and so the simpler problem was to find access to the top which led our local leaders directly to the Holy See, to Canterbury and to the Saudis (the debate about how much Muslim power lies here is still on the table). 

Our friends who fondly refer to themselves as primates have certain challenges regarding ordination of Women as well as the controversial question of Human sexuality. But the reigns of power are still intact and 

England at least for now is still going to remain firm in its place. 

Military and police force versus sheer intelligence.

Based on what the local experts told us were saw a battle that would be fought in a characteristic manner by Big Hat. The military and it's arms would prove significant and the police too. We have no doubt that the presence of the military in parliament as well as in the Internal Affairs and the police (both headed by military men) would prove pivotal in the battle for kraal. Meanwhile Kazigo would have to refer to his expertise in the intelligence which we are told he headed for quite a while. 

The trouble with the intelligence battle for Uganda was that both Kazigo and Mr. No Regrets were both intelligence men and their decision to air out our security laundry was both unprofessional and unpatriotic (and we dare say treasonable). I am almost certain that they had their Israeli and 

Russian trainers shaking in the boots and sad to see what these students of theirs we're doing with their training. 

The foul dream of Youth 

While trouble was brewing in the resistance camp, we began to see some hope in the youth. This did not last long. Soon the hope for the future were back on the streets doing tasks that were meant for Lumpen Proletariats. Fluidity is great but a strange question would involve what kind of changes will take place if your class of schooled young people find themselves displaced from their institutions (where they are tasked with helping create policy) in preference for rowdy and often violent appearances in the streets. 

And so it became rather evident that none of these young people saw themselves as leaders but were still keen to do the task of politicking on behalf of old men. 

Borrowing from the U.S election.

We also began to see a time when our statisticians would team up with techies as was done in 2008 to take advantage of regional complexities. What would Uganda's Iowa be? What part of Uganda would represent the bible belt? Would be have swing regions (states) where would our Florida be? And so for the first time in quite a while, we were able to have some kind of census. We were also able to see the age in which the mobile phone and the number became the identity of the user. We worked slowly (with the help of a German company) towards a registration exercise. Those of us who were bound by our laws struggled through the process while those who have grown accustomed to living below the radar simply played along and questioned the legitimacy of this process. 

If people used the data well, then they would be able to predict the outcomes of an election way before any voting took place. 

It might get nasty. 

Even as we watch the progress taking place in the U.S we can see how less money will be spent on negative campaign ads. As things stand, the potential nominees are busy slinging stuff at themselves. No need to pay someone else to do that for you. The back and forth is quite entertaining. Also good to know that our billionaire buddy is an equal opportunity slinger and has not stopped at POTUS. And so we also foresee a nasty information battle that will cause the rise of the tabloids and and if played right will bring about a resignation. The only way you can win an intelligence battle is with dirt. 

Negotiation and the need to identify an Ideology.

In some of my previous posts, i mentioned the importance of identifying an underlying ideology in the effort to challenge fundamentalist groups with a view of getting them into the negotiating room. While it may be often more convenient to think of your foe as a evil the manner in which he fights you means that you will never be in a position to win against him. This is what we have come to refer to as the unconventional war.

My reference in particular was to the Boko Haram group which i argued needed to be confronted about its Educational reform ideas. Because of the insistence that Western Education was forbidden, we needed to engage them about what they felt was lacking in local education systems. In a sense we needed to force them into a different battle field-that of the mind.

Now that the aforementioned group was seeking to form union with Al Quaeda and ISIS, this need is becoming more apparent. This is significant because even if the face of modern 'resistance' was changing, these groups were also feeding on each other and benefiting from the numerous research that was available on-line and with many media houses. While some groups (especially suicide bombers) were often encouraging their recruits to prepare for virgins in heaven, Boko Haram is instead creating a heaven on earth for its fighters by providing them young brides. This is a massive and notable change in Ideology. These shifts in thinking need to be exploited and utilized.

What these groups are saying, is that some of what was conventionally expected as heaven in its rewards can now be made available on earth. This is a two edged sword and can serve to fodder or prevent some of those who before were tempted to take their lives in acts of bravery. The downside of this though is that the same African (Nigerian Group) has also started using young girls to take part in acts of violence.