Defining the Presidency.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

There are few things that are going to define the presidency. The first will take place around mid year or much later depending what states you are in. It is called Hurricane Season. For that reason, you need to pick your disaster management team with caution. If you look back to the Bush years (Walker-The Texas Ranger not Herbert) you will notice that everything was going great until Katrina Happened. Then some fissures appeared in the teams that had been put in place. But to be fair that was a disaster unlike any other but it still define a good part of the second term for that president and in a sense managed to fix the change message with the democrats picked up with glee. Al Gore who has also just recently lost a significant fight was also able to continue his march and message toward the effect on the Environment. In what could become a two term presidency therefore FEMA needs to be revisited. The second challenge will be about external pressure to engage with foreign military groups. Pulling back is good and helps focus energies on local challenges but your predecessor (The Texas Ranger) was very insistent on the need to take the battle to them as a means of preventing attack on local soil. Finding a balance for this strategic move will be important. My guess is that you will also need to revive the Faith Based Initiatives which i believe cover all bases and religions and were designed to simplify the relationship between people of faith and the practice of that faith. The next challenge will come (God forbid) should there be another incident in a school and will continue to challenge your belief and relationship with the Second Amendment. There was a brief scuffle in the midwest but this was not covered well by the media and in my view was probably the closest we came to applying the right to bear arms-which is mainly in my view supposed to apply to the need to create a militia should there be failures in government. The NRA will come to the fore again but your earlier position regarding gun control and background checks should help you in silencing of Ghosts of Presidencies Past. The manner in which the process of selecting a new head of state was altered in many ways and DJT did not seem to need to courtesy around the traditional lobby groups as did other presidents but the presence of a son in law will take this battle to anther level. If there are any deals (or past confrontations) that took place in NY (a heartland for Jewish thinkers) these could come back to haunt you. We already see this playing out with the media but we are almost certain that you are well placed to handle any fist fights from that section of the big apple. The press will start by hating you but later on they will come around and up their game.

The Supreme Court.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

We've covered what transition means for the two Major players in the U.S government. We have also tackled what it means for the presidency (seeming to talk directly to the new leader). Now we will look at another Branch of Government. The Supreme Court.
When Clarence Thomas joined the Elite Group of judges the process by which he was selected was very rough. You could say it was a decade of scandals in Washington. But he was a pivotal conservative African American figure. What he went through had such a numbing effect on him that he often regrets accepting the call to the Court.
The next major hurdle that brought the Highest court to our attention was the Battle for Florida and the questions regarding 'chads'. Little marking on ballot papers that were used in deciding the closeness of the pole results. Visibly shaken members of the court were later seen also looking visibly shaken by the ordeal of having to decide on a very close race.
In my view this was one step that led to the changes (10 years or so later) that we saw in the key state of Florida which incidentally was being run Jeb Bush. Florida was always going to be controversial because of its closeness to Cuba and the presence of so many dissidents. The same group was very vocal in the past government's monumental decisions to restore diplomatic relations with the long time foe.
We are going to see much more tension with other governments and the dissidents that have stood against them now that the one hundred and twenty day freeze on immigration has been enacted. The result is that those that have once opposed their governments and spoken against them will find fewer peaceful options favoring violence as a means of gaining power. This will be played out in Syria, Egypt, Somalia, Iraq, Iran and many more. Many who have in the past spoken against hostile governments have often found solace in American Universities as lecturers and professors of literature and politics. This ban changes this or at least makes it harder to benefit from the gifts that amnesty provides.
There are others who have had to bear the brunt of these massive changes in policy that will speak again or wait for 'I told you so moments'. In addition we will see and have already seen a resurgent Russia which in all fairness we were unable to tame except when it came to the creations of missile Defence systems which we deployed in lands that were partners in NATO. There is a feeling that the Oligarchs that supported the regime are being rewarded or replicated with some of the cabinet positions but bigger changes in the highest court of the land will bring the Nation back to a system that will resemble that of the Patriarch and his successor both of whom created and took over a system that was working to weaken Russia. Remember it was during Ronald Reagan's presidency with his trio of power brokers (Thatcher, Kohl and Gorbachev) when the Iron Curtain began to fall with repercussions in most of Eastern Europe.

Generational Challenges for the Black Caucus and the NAACP?

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

There is a man in the bible whose origins and life have often been disputed because of the vast array of skills that he seems it have had. His name was Samuel and He came onto the scene when the people of God needed a King. Because he was a transitional figure he was a mix of many things (and many people of this kind often are). He was prophet and priest and had the privilege of being raised in the house of an older priest (Eli). As part of his priestly arsenal, he has a vial of oil that he would use to pour over the man God would anoint and King. The magic potion was a much sought over collection of secret herbs and oils whose distinct scent would mark a man or woman for the Kingship.
The first one to have had this privilege was Saul. But then there was a need for a change in the system and so Samuel went in search of a successor. It is said that he visited the sons of Jesse. And went through the whole lot of them but was dissatisfied until they mentioned a forgotten teenager who was out there taking care of the flock.
So we have searched for a link to the future of a people whose history is peppered with tragic experiences. We went through the dark phase when two possible spokespersons for this move were gunned down in a time that probably altered the manner in which Americans viewed their governments. They were it seems two extreme opposites of each other Malcolm X on one hand and Martin Luther King on another. They both spawned movements of their own which were carried along by those whom they held closest but it seems as though, no visible successor apart from some prominent family members came to the fore.
I held my breathe as a son of a modern day Jesse demonstrated in some regards leanings toward leadership but our hopes were dashed when he faded into the background. So where then is the proverbial 'shepherd boy'? Was it BHO? I do not think so. There was the right mix of Oration and charm but there was a missing ingredient. Maybe we need to look further. There have been some who have made the amazing shift into alternative places of influence top of which has been in entertainment. Others have made a name for themselves using the Practice of the law. Others have used sports but there has been a difficulty in finding access to the streams that bubbled in the sixties.
I am pleased for example with leaders such as Rev. Sharpton who have managed to live seamlessly through different setting from Law to Media and even Church blending their skills in activism and community building. What I think there has been difficulty in is passing on the torch and translating sixties challenges into 21 century efforts. I think that we have had some expressions of this with the black lives matter movement. But like the Tea party and the Occupy movement there has been some trouble summarizing these gatherings into political forces that can gather under a single idea.
Maybe the results of the election and the ideas that it has brought to the surface will help expose 'the unknown son'. We wait to see.

Supreme Courts, Monarchies, Democracies and A longing for days past.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking

There is a vast difference between the forces that drove and inspired the Brexit and those that brought about the election of Donald John Trump. Firstly the difference between the two voting groups was not even that noticeable. No avalanches here! Secondly, there was an election in one country and all the fanfare that goes with it while in the Isles, there was a referendum (directing a political question to the direct vote of the electorate). Experts say that the results split Britain in many ways but the English were in many ways not really subscribed the this European thingy anyway. For a long time they were enjoying the benefits of colonial triumphs even if the Kingdom was going through withdrawal symptoms. Their Economy was much better placed and for a long time they held on to their currency. In addition to this they still have a large group of commonwealth countries that share language and major parts of culture-and some affection for the crown. Involving the highest court in the U.K was therefore also just a formality to demonstrate that the system still works even if you get the sense that its stratified society wants to remind the populace that it is still firmly in charge. But there are rifts here that expose the underbelly of a system that says it listens to the people (democracy) but that places certain institutions and their leaders at the top of its courts (and rightly so) even when this call to serve is administered not by vote but by selection. The referendum therefore upsets many in that it hails the people as supreme but still places them at the mercy of those they elect. The U.K is different in structure as well because it combines monarchy with constitution. the crown still leads although only in name but is still a very integral part of the structured and layered society. So we the people does apply in only a limited sense here. The speech is therefore only more relevant in the U.S than it is in the U.K unless of course the British were to choose to undo the fetters of blue blood like their french counter parts resorting to pruning forks instead. So even when the Supreme court steps in and recognizes the necessity of the law and the system of parliament (upper and lower) it only comes in to state the obvious and maybe stick in to the people a little more to remind them that there are levels. The broader debate which would include Russia therefore is about the larger stream of change which would call for a return of the older order. Somewhere where George is still in charge and the pioneers are still thinking about the Mayflower and having visions of autonomy. The same ancient order is what drives the leaders in Russia toward those nostalgic days when the Union was in competition with the west also commanding vast chunks of territory. The only difference is that this time around the Russians have China, North Korea and Cuba as underlings. This is why one would worry about the loss of NATO, the only force that can check the advances of a resurgent Russia. This is why DJTs words are so troubling when for example the U.S is loosing bases in the Philipines even as it gains some in Djibouti and West Africa. It still needs to have the ability to deploy its troops with speed if not for war for deterrence. The sense of exhaustion is plain for all to see and DJTs major case is to at least spend less money policing the world. This off course places him on a collision course with the U.N and the aforementioned NATO. But at the moment no one has been able to check the Russians instead being rather grateful for their success in Syria. So you could say the Russians have stolen America's thunder. This scenario will probably bring about a increase in British influence but will probably bring about a regurgitation of older post independence sentiments. This is why in some respects, the Tea Party was so relevant and why the constitution has seemed to enjoy a comeback. But so will the Saint and his escapades with the Dragon. The Reagan years and the decades that preceded those were really in my view about a western front led by George Senior (battle trained and battle ready) dealing with curtains of iron and walls splitting in East and West Germany and redefining imperial power but in a strange way reclaiming the long lost rebellious American son in his own turf.

The true source of your populism.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.


There was a character in the old testament who had become famous or infamous for his ability to hassle his way into any situation. Those who named him may have predicted this when his younger twin beat him to the birth canal, the younger grasped the heel of the older quickly gaining the name "supplanter". Later he gained the favor of his mother and was able to steal his brother birthright. But fate caught up with him when he met his soon to be father in law. Falling in love with one of his daughters the older man managed to trick him into marrying the older instead of the younger. Blinded or guided by love Jacob chose to pay or work for fourteen years to gain the love of the second as well as the first.
This is the story of most immigration systems (ok the American). You will spend a precious amount of your time paying for your love of Country with your devotion and work while waiting for the system to recognize your efforts as sufficient for citizenship. All this while watching others loafing around with these privileges while seeming not to understand just how much it is all worth.
I think you (in the U.S) for all intents and purposes have entered into state of war. At least a declaration of the same. If you watch the last few years in the Europe as she sought to make the most of her union, casualties such as Greece (that tried to default on her debts) immediately began to rehash memories from the second world war. And soon smaller previously less popular parties of mainly right wing radicals began to call for a ban on immigration as well as a full assault on foreigners. Italy for some reason kept making it through. Even if it's progress was impeded by resignations and agitations in successive governments. Italy if you remember was on the same side as Germany and Japan. And for a while at least for Japan there was a lot of progress.
Without necessarily planning for it Germany has managed to rebuild and resurface as would any country after the effects of a war. This time around it has emerged as a regional force almost holding Europe together singlehandedly. The Americans are exhausted after funding much of this growth partly out of guilt.
The biggest question for the British and the Americans especially as they attempt to deal with immigration is, will citizens be willing to take the jobs that have almost now been reserved for the more lowly foreigners or in the case of the U.K Eastern Europeans?
The interesting thing about these types of economic wars is that the casualties are not as severe on the eyes as those of other conventional wars. But there are casualties. The weapons differ only in form but they are weapons nonetheless. There are imports, exports, tariffs, trade barriers, currency controls and manipulation, immigration bans, complex policy documents, and tightening of economic belts all of which can be used to make locals totally miserable.
What makes this so uncomfortable for the U.S and the U.K and all those countries that have opened their doors to immigrants is that every time they have engagements with other nations they almost always end up shooting themselves in the foot because of the presence of dual citizenship laws and in the case of the U.S almost unavoidable internment camps which have had their place in history for almost every major American Confrontation. This was probably most pronounced with Japan but there were similar effects much earlier when the Chinese who had gained a place in the California's working classes were found in direct conflict with the gold rush. As can be expected, citizens of the Koreas, Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Cuba would soon also suffer at least internally in terms of loyalties. But that is part of the price that many especially fresh entrants will have to deal with when almost inevitably the American take on roles they cannot avoid.

Lessons from the African Union Race.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

The results are out and from the look of things the Kenyan Candidate Amina Mohammed is not pleased. She has chosen language similar to what American representative to the U.N chose when she cautioned 'allies and foes' alike against taking positions against the U.S saying, "we will be taking notes" or in the case of Amina making references to broken promises (directed at a Ugandan neighbor who did not play ball).
The race for the top position for the AU, was complex and convoluted. From Uganda we presented Specioza Wandera. She was the first Female Vice president. Uganda has done a lot for inclusion and much of this work has been replicated by governments throughout the continent reflecting this response in the composition of their respective parliaments. S. Wandera did not appear to enjoy a large support base when her intention to run for the AU position was revealed. Much later and after quite a lot of push back from some locals and social media she was edged her on and even managed to persuade the government to foot the bill for her bid. Uganda probably borrowed heavily (in terms of ideas) from the Keyans who were rallying behind their pick. But in hind sight it seems as though both countries had ignored the the warning signs. It appears the AU uses a model similar to what is used in Nigeria. The rotation between North and South or Muslim and Christian which determines who rules. If that is applied in this context after the decision of Ndlamini not to renew her term, then it makes sense that the next leader for the AU would have to emerge from the Northern African states (after a reign from a leader from South Africa). That and the other unmentioned idea of gender? But Suggesting that is bound to ruffle a few feathers. We are also not certain why Mrs. Ndlamini Zuma did not seek a second term. The second question has to do with the vastness of the continent and the need for lobbying and the amounts of cash that were splurged into an exercise which as we have hinted was almost already lost given the facts on the ground. The fallout is interesting because the votes are cast by heads of state whose control and leverage rests entirely in the regions of their origin and the influence these respective blocs hold over the governance of the massive continent. So Ms. Amina's veiled attack falls squarely into the lap of the Ugandan president. This also exposes possible political underpinnings that direct seemingly unrelated events and that work internally (within countries ) and externally (within regions). This is a continent that can hold North America and
India and Europe with some space left for others. So governance as it stands now would depend heavily on these blocs which also tend to overlap memberships. What was interesting to watch is how these groups and their influence affected the likelihood of elections for the AU leaders. Also one could almost see a future when say the dreams of a Nkuruma came to pass and all roads were leading to a presidency of Africa. Would we learn any lessons form this race and how well would our leaders perform were they placed against each other. This was strange because the regional stalwarts were instead of standing for these posts themselves were sending their foreign ministers. Notable regions of strength were ECOWAS especially after we saw demonstrated their abilities to harness military strength. But also in the North, Chad probably benefited from previous experience in military matters having managed quite a number of conflicts from Libya, to Egypt, to Tunisia and Sudan. Are we therefore going to see a decreased influence from the Southern parts of Africa? Will be see a shift up North? Is it as some have observed really just a line between English speaking Africa and Francofone Africa? Maybe the African states are beginning to push back against perceived corruption and disdain for constitutions visible both in Eastern Africa and Southern Africa? Successive governments are going to need to find ways of entrenching themselves in power perhaps by use of business or other institutions directly or otherwise through additional methods of influence. Or are there much more complex dynamics. We leave that to you.

Anointing a new leader for the next cycle?

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking. 

 

Its been a while since the Reagan Presidency. Those who govern the United States tend to be immortal though. The friction between the business man/real estate mogul and the body builder/governor has got me thinking about the possibilities for the next cycle. It was easy to sense the tension in the air when Barack Obama took a few jabs at Donald Trump at the correspondents dinner in response to the birther controversy. But there is a little more or for those who understand the business man and his psychology. Those who have successfully taken him on, like the young lady (in the office of Attorney General) that was shown the door for refusing to adhere to the rules, tend to profit. Others like the democrat leader and activist from the sixties also usually have the benefit of making it big with their books sales after such encounters.
So will this attack on the governor bring about enough ill feeling to cause a call to the highest office in the land? Or is there still a chance to see a sufficient democratic response? The train has already left the station now the challenge for anyone who would seek to change that will struggle and part of DJT drive will be to find a link to those voices that cheered him on as he spoke. Normally the second part of your first term is sent trying to make sure you can get re-elected. You could see the struggle for the previous president as he sought to harness the energy of the crowds and as he dealt with the temptation to return into campaign mode. Governance and the pitfalls in the establishment are tough challenges so He will have to depend heavily on his inner strength for the energy to lead and rule. What will happen for some given DJT's leadership style is that most of the pressure will fall on his vice president and the cabinet. We might see similar moments as we saw right before the final vote when voices began to call for the vice to step up and take the place of his more aggressive boss. This was in response to the tapes that were released right before the people made their choice at the point when they were most vulnerable. The other group that will bear the brunt of this attack might be the Christians who are enjoying a revival of sorts at least in terms of the law which has been perceived as being on the whole against them.It kind of got uncomfortable when it was time to make some phone calls. If you look at the list of calls, each country, was in some way struggling with the question of indigenous natives of the land. Canada is still working on these issues which have made their way into the core of first nations people. Australia was also still healing wounds from its desire to expand its settlements with Aborigines. The Americans themselves are yet to even dream of having a discussion about the possibility of a First Nation's president. But those are the struggles of each power as it seeks to advance itself at the expense of another. The pipeline deal represents the possibility of progress but for another group it stands for the sacred land of the ancestors. Jobs and progress and the hope of investing in a big projects which often are useful in boosting the morale of the people and turning the tide after leaner times. There is also the unfortunate reality that wars often help boost economies around them especially those that take place on foreign soil. Besides we are still living in the shadow of a military industrial complex. Perhaps one of most amazing things about the tweeting head of state is that this kind of transparency has revolutionized the manner in which we think about open governance maybe even sooner or later contributing to the gutting often entire intelligence and diplomatic system.
But like we have seen there are difficulties to come and now the immigrants have to walk the thin line of protesting and expressing themselves while not holding the Country hostage.