Making sense of Europe Challenges in 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

The first word we will define is Austerity. 

1. Severity or plainness: severity of discipline, regime, expression, or design

2. Economy pressure: a saving, economy, act of self-denial, especially in respect of something regarded as a luxury

3. ECONOMICS enforced thrift: thrift imposed as Government policy, with restricted access to or availability of consumer goods. (1)

Fig Tree Blossoms in 1960 Africa. 

All these changes took place a vacuum of spaces created predominantly in Europe's back yard and in the hands of previous colonial masters who had become accustomed to living off foreign governments in old colonies. A flurry of requests for independence had also characterized life In the 1960 also had unexpected results on an economy that was being driven by Foreign labor, commodities much like what had happened previously in the Americas and in the U.S itself when the North and South were forced to contend with each other on the questions of slavery and the benefits of human labor in the predominantly agrarian south. Island nations that were producing spices, coffee, cotton, sugar were also bound to suffer if these changes were implemented much too quickly. Trace the path of European decline in the seventies and you will find former colonial giants of shipping and trade beginning to feel the pinch of a loss of major services. 

Europe and Austerity in the 1970s.

Marshall the 'Troops'

These marked changes in the economies of Europe after the second world war could be traced back to the Marshall plan and the monies that was pumped into the struggling economies of the day to inject some much need growth and redevelopment in the war-devastated economies. But given what we have learnt about Foreign led growth and the consequent effects of the same on struggling economies maybe the decline of the European economies after yet another war was a sign that external investment cannot be viewed as a long term method of driving true sustainable growth.  

Commodities and the rise of Regional Powers. 

Most of the challenges that are mentioned in regards to Europe in the seventies hinge on the energy crisis, most particularly the price of oil, which had quadrupled since the Middle East war of 1973. The result was projections of double digit inflation for at least a decade in Europe. great. Great Britain was facing price rises o 17%, Italy was dealing with rises of 20% and Spain and Portugal were dealing with upwards of 30% price increases. Measures like a freeze in prices and wages had limited success. 

Premier Raymond Barre succeed in stabilizing the franc and reducing the deficit but the latter remained high and growth slowed and unemployment did not decrease. Barre was attacked both by Socialists and Communists on the left and by Gaullist followers of premier Jaques Chirac on the right. 

The Rise of the Foreign Banks and their Bailouts

Austerity plans were adopted by Great Britain ($3.9 Billion), Spain, Italy ($500 million from the IMF and $500 million from EEC) and Portugal ($49million had been given in April of that year to offset a deficit of $1 billion) . These plans had conditions that were attached to them with large loans from the International Monetary Fund. As discussed in the previous post on Bubbles, the discussion around loans further raised fears of the effects on local economies that infused capital from outside would affect economic sovereignty ad governments freedom of action. 

New Tactics for Modern forms of Economic Warfare

Several  major changes occurred firstly, Growth rates slowed in Europe (3%) while the rates of growth for the U.S and Japan rose (expansion rate 5%). Rapid growth and austerity are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Secondly, foreign investment in Europe went to other economies (investment from oil rich states). 

Thirdly, wages rose as a natural effect of inflation and a decline in productivity. Fourthly, the cost of European goods for export was expensive bringing about a trade imbalance 

Revival of Capitalist Communist Debates and Thinkers

Fifthly, unemployment.  In countries that had strong leanings toward communism and socialism or those who sought to marry different economic tendencies the natural result of unemployment was the return and revival of trade unions and workers movements the start of uneasy debates between capitalist thinkers and their marxist opposites. 

It was these conditions that brought about a major shift to the left, which is also common in the present day, the rise of the Iron Lady an her assault against the Trade Unions in the U.K, the trio of Reagan, Gorbachev and Thatcher, as wells as pressure on the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall. (3b)

Europe and Austerity in the 1990s.

Sweden-a case for mixed economies. 

For a long while (since the 1930s) it seems as though the decision of the Swedes to marry two systems of economic development provided some insulation from economic challenges that confronted other European Countries. This they did by splitting their economy into a 'local' and and 'an other'. The local was made up of cooperatives and unions that managed key aspects of their economy and development. They ensured through these groups that simple commodities were transformed and maximized to benefit locals. The energy then invested in the development of these local industries was then pumped into controlled Foreign exports whose profits were returned to members of the same. This model was affected by a recession in the 1990s. The result was a drop in employment and a budget deficit. The government decided to respond using some austerity measures which included tax reform, reductions in civil service employment, cuts in social-welfare programs and partial privatization of some state owned enterprises( postal services, telecommunications and railroad transport). The result was a reduction in the public sector, a restoration of confidence in the Swedish economy and an economic recovery that slowed the economic downturn of 2001. (2)

Italy-Politics, Religion, Economics and their effects on Austerity

In 1995 Lamberto Dini, Berlusconi's treasury minister, was appointed prime minister to lead a politically neutral transitional Government. There was uncontrolled public expenditure, political corruption, an unproductive public sector all of which contributed to the budget deficit and a rising national debt. Dini's response was to pass an austerity budget, to reform election system, state pension system and to enact rules that controlled political access to TV. He resigned in January 1996 but continued in office until April. 

Elections in that year brought the communists into power for the first time in Italy's history as a republic. Thus the country began its shift to the centre-left. Also notable during this time was an attempt toward separation from a more 'productive' north which failed to win popular support when the idea was floated in the election. 

The national election brought into power 56 year old Romano Prodi (a mix of economics and religion) economist and former state conglomerate. He defeated the centre-right leader and media magnate Silvio Berloscuni former prime minister. Perhaps this time around the effects on Media that had been  attempted a few years before by Lamberto Dini would now gain fresh momentum. 

It was also another time of firsts in which Italy's evolving political system had generated two opposing major candidates for prime minister before citizen voted. 

Unable to win a majority an Olive Tree coalition was formed which brought in a formerly communist party the PDS (democratic party of the left) which had given up Marxism after the fall of the Berlin wall resulting in 

loss of its core group from the Reformed Communists. Their 21% added to the 35% of the original bloc. The new government attracted other prominent leftists like Massimo D'Alema (party secretary), Walter Veltroni (PDS second in command), Georgio Napolitano (Interior Minister) and Vincenzo Visco (Finance Minister), Lamberto Dini(former prime minster was appointed Foreign Minister), Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (former premier and political independent become treasury minister), and Antonio Di Pietro (former Star prosecutor who headed operation clean hands investigation was appointed Minister of Public Works but later resigned after charges of abuse of office were brought against him). 

Prodi wanted to work on public finances (a criteria for joining the European Monetary Union),deal with the threats of succession by the Northern league leader (Umberto Bossi), reform of the constitution along federalist lines as well as the creation of a winner takes all voting system (to replace the proportional representational system). 

Of all the challenges mentioned above the only external challenge that would affect Italy's future was that of the Monetary Union. The rest of the issues strictly speaking we're internal, with hybrids such as the corruption cases or trials off terrorism suspects (Majed Youssef al Molqi) that affected the perception of the Americans on the Italian Justice System (Giovanni Brusca, Giovanni Falcone). 

The appointments were important because they helped determine what the coalition government would focus on in the years to come because on the whole, the men that were placed in positions of power were all major pieces in the political 'games' that characterized the functions of the the nation in the years previous. It is no wonder that Berlusconi was castigated and later tried in connection to kickbacks to tax inspectors of his Fininvest media-to-retail conglomerate (possibly a consequence of the over exertion of his media power in the past and present-the present bribery charges notwithstanding). (4)

1. Encarta Dictionary

2. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

3. Collier's Year Book (for events of 1997). Monthly updates in Encarta Yearbook). 

3b. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

4. Microsoft Encarta 2008, Microsoft Corporation 1993-2007

Key Words: Austerity, Debt, Credit Rating. 

Both this article and the previous one have only dealt with two issues on a regional basis with some more I depth coverage of some European countries like Italy. The responses used my most countries and their Central Banks are universal. 

Here is what I found out about economic bubbles.

To begin with, the idea of a bubble is a rapid economic expansion (Boom) followed by an economic explosion (burst). You cannot talk about bubbles without coming across three major ideas or themes. Banks, Markets and people (investors). 

Globalization and Regionalism (1)

When you study or combine all this with the idea of globalization, you can see how complex or interested the problem of economic bubbles becomes. Under the subject of Globalization, you will find three primary institutions the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. These groups usually can have an effect on the local economy by bringing in in unexpected change in the economic structure of the government. A loan for example can bring about the illusion of growth and expansion at a time when the reality Is that the economy is slowing down. This perception amongst locals can then be exploited by those who may be partners say in Construction or roads. As a result cement, steel, tar (by products of petroleum) may increase in price. So here you see the banks (International) having an effect on the markets which also cause an effect with people. 

The effects described above all take place on the global level. On the other hand though, there can be effects that take place on a Regional Level. The dynamics are the same in this case, governments almost everywhere have to deal with the results of agreements under which these deals or loans or bail outs are administered. Secondly, many of these agreements are signed in the interests of larger groups as opposed to individuals or the grass roots if you like. In current affairs you can see how tension is beginning to build between the Americans on one hand and the Chinese on another. In this example the Americans would like to benefit from selling certain chicken products to their Asian counterparts. The Chinese on the other hand have responded using subsidies for their local produce. What this does is make it almost impossible for the American Business people to thrive in the Chinese Environment. You could argue that the Americans have been fed some of their own medicine given some of their practices in Island Nations suck as Haiti which receive Rice from America at almost no cost at the detriment of their own local markets. 

The Rise of new Powers (Colonialism and Hegemony) (2)

The British were making their mark on the world and were rapidly expanding. Naturally there was a need to grow and extend territory. Those who owned ships were therefore able to exert an unequal effect on the markets for timber, cotton, men, sugar, spices. Naturally promises could therefore be made and speculation based on the forecasts of growth. Because certain members of the monarchy maintained rights over the major companies back in the day, these small groups were able to concentrate vast amounts of wealth around them. These ideas mirror some of the developments in modern days. The transfer of power from one economic power to another and changes in shipping that favor large companies that can transport good as well as oils and naturally those who can control these routes using military means. A study of the U.S and China and other giants of shipping and trade can provide more useful information.  In addition to this the effect of a transfer of labor and the monies that are recovered and sent back to poor nations can also have a skewed effect on the economy. 

The U.S (Black Friday and Black Tuesday) (3)

The U.S had two major events the first in Friday 24th September 1869 was brought about by speculation on the price of Gold. A small group (James Fisk and Jay Gould) of investors bought so much Gold and then made the attempt to corner the market on the same. In the current day you could equate this to the current effect that we have seen with the price of oil and the influence of a specific group (OPEC) on this price. The Saudi for example were producing so much of it that they would sit by for years with a knowledge that no matter how low the price of the commodity got, they would still have a substantial amount of money in their reserves. You can expect to see much more activity in this regard especially as new power rise and attempt to join the exclusive club of oil producers. 

The second event (Black Tuesday)(4) was caused when high tariffs on imported goods were combined with foreign loans and the attempt to export goods. This could not be sustained because the countries that were trading with the Americans could not afford to pay off the loans while at the same time struggling to deal with the challenge of exporting goods to the U.S under such high tariffs. The effect of these initial practices was the growth a wealthy class. The trouble with this rise that it was based on loans that could not be sustained. In a sense the Americans though their loans were financing their own local markets and depending on the the foreign governments to pay for these practices. 

A large amount of people began to believe in the illusion of wealth that had been created by few 'wealthy' people. The result was investment in over-valued stocks. The crash that followed had effects on interrelated areas of the economy where wealth was unevenly distributed, where agriculture has been 'abandoned in favor of other industries and in banks that had been under supervised. 

The U.S-The effect of war on an Economy (5)

The effects of war can be internal or external. 

The first effect if not watched can be the un-natural push for one means or method of generating revenue for the economy at the expense of all the others. Maybe this is part of the warning that was given by the Head of State (David Dwight Eisenhower) at the time when he warned the American to beware of the military industrial complex.

On the external front South Vietnam benefitted from the kind of growth that can be generated in a time of war. Industries driven by the need for weaponry and related sub-economies like transportation, infrastructure, communications. As a result one group of the populace benefitted and was able to achieve a high standard of living. Those closely related to the same group also benefitted but on the whole the country was struggling. 

These issues can be extended in peace time to countries that thrive in dictatorships where small groups of well connected individuals enjoy the limited resources in a given country while many others in the periphery suffer. 

The Asian Tigers. (6)

A few economies (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea) opened up by adopting market friendly practices. This caused a rise in investment by foreign investors. Massive drives toward construction and infrastructure then followed. But because many of these practices were not driven internally by policies aimed at arming people with knowledge and skills, growth and was soon followed by a collapse. Many of these major projects were not built for locals but for the foreigners and few locals who had had the benefit of an international Education sufficient enough to prepare them to run these institutions on behalf of the 

Larger foreign corporations to which they were subservient. 

The other effect was mentioned before under the subject of regional effects where one economy by virtue of its size influences the workings of other smaller economies in the area. This is the case with Japan and could be the case with China. Closer home bastions of stability such as Kenya could have detrimental effects in the region were they to suffer economically. It is no wander that there have been attempts to move new developments towards the restorations of the standard Gauge Railway have been moved in favor of a more stable looking Tanzanian route as opposed to the Kenyan one. 

The Technology Bubble. (7)

The most interesting note about this technology bubble is that the notable survivors of the fall are our current giants even of some of them are now floundering. On the local scene we wonder how long the talk about application development and mobile technology will last in Uganda as it begins to wane in the U.S and as many innovators throng into Europe. In addition to this, we can see how many economies (France) are beginning to question Foreign practices of tax evasion and clamping down on companies such as google. Perhaps one of the tools that will be responsible for part of this decline will be International law and international trading agreements which in a large part have managed to constrict the likes of Microsoft and Apple and have continued to mitigate between various other groups struggling to drive innovation while protecting trade marks and patents.  

(1) Microsoft Student 2008 Edition DVD and the specific section mentioned above was developed from the work of Tabb William K. 

(2) Microsoft Student 2008 DVD and are part of the contribution given by Weisser, Henry G. And Kashlansky, Mark. 

(3) "Black Friday" Microsoft Student 2008 DVD Redmond WA Microsoft Corporation.  

(4) "Black Tuesday" Microsoft Student 2008 DVD Redmond WA Microsoft Corporation.  McElvaine, Robert 'Great Depression of the United States'.

(5) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

(6) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

(7) Microsoft Corporation 2008. Encarta DVD. 

Solutions for post election silence?

The Dilemma (thinking like an Opposition politician)

The opposition core in Uganda finds itself in a dilemma of sorts. How far is the leadership team willing to push the envelope? Is it possible to speak about the fairness of the Presidential elections and then separate that from the rest of the elections? Are they willing to sacrifice the big seat for some wins in Kampala and Wakiso? 

Already we can see some of the Opposition stalwarts celebrating and beginning to think in terms of their new smaller though relevant seats in Parliament. And this week we heard a measure of criticism regarding the local politicians and their unwillingness to go for the big seat. But what good would that serve if the smaller seat delivers all the results that the politician needs in the short term?

Dimensions of leadership (leadership benefits across the board)

The seat allows the politician to gain access to the public space and in some regards to the presidency at least in terms of visibility. In addition to this it allows the victor access to a fair amount of cash and prestige which if utilized well can get you an insiders view into government contracts both local and international. Most of these deals are awarded to people and personalities that are viewed as trustworthy. There may be quite a lot of controversy that has arisen because of these contracts (see writing from the Black Monday Movement) but on the whole smaller projects have generated a lot of clean income for the politicians who have been smart enough to leverage their popularity and visibility. 

Deal or no deal (the perspective of the resistance movement)

What would it be like if the NRM decided to sacrifice the presidency for an obvious majority in Parliament? What if they were to go the way of the Americans and make it virtually impossible for the sitting president to function? With majorities in both houses, what would the president (an opposition one) do and how would he function. Would the NRM structure be affected by a change in Chairmanship. Is that way out there in left field? 

This means sacrificing the chairmanship and beginning to think in terms of a successor as was the case in Venezuela. Where the shoes of the incumbent (Chavez) were almost impossible to fill and where the fallout from his socialist views and the western backlash (sanctions in Corrupt politicians) in his (Maduro) nation is clearly having a negative effect on local governance. How well can he play the imperialism card as did his successor when the economy is shrinking globally fueled in part by a major drop in the price of oil?

Discerning the meaning of crowds (the challenge for local pollsters)

Even if a fair number of constituents are not wholly convinced by the numbers as presented by the Electoral Commission, we are still mesmerized by the massive crowds that greeted Amama Mbabazi when he visited the northern territories especially when he made the first attempts to set his footprint in Bugisu. We are also challenged by the crowds that welcomed their Hero in Col. Kizza Besigye in his hometown of Bushenyi as well as by the masses that 'funded' his campaign reminding many of the liberation days when families of farmers and herdsmen would feel the 'liberators' as they trekked through the rural regions of Uganda. We will not mention the other crowds in his nemesis' hometown of Mbarara. But all that aside how come we are being told that at least for the former prime minister that all these crowds placed him at the same level as the new comers? 

Distance and guilt (the electoral commission).

So we watched rather nervously as the engineer sat in the doc in defense of his position as chairman of the commission. I am not sure who should have been on trial here but the scientist looked like he was in over his head and did speak about wanting to keep his head as the crowd of liars...I mean lawyers roared in laughter like hyenas in the savannah gathering over the prey after the exit of the larger predators. As fate would have it he was questioned by a lawyer called Mbabazi-no relation to the other former prime minister who it is said at some point had access to the voter register or membership list for the NRM party. It is no wonder there was so much distress and peace...I mean violence when the NRM primaries took place. Which to be fair might not be blamed on the absence of the cool and collected former blue eyed boy. But the point is the NRM primaries and introduction of the new commission for the party were a microcosm of the elections that would soon take place in the Country. Kiggundu's inability to answer the question regarding the register and it's update and the number which were presented to the nation and the voters, was only evidence for the complex situation in which he finds himself. The problems of the NRM and the emergence of a rebel league of sorts which can now be aptly named as a league of independents only helps shed some light on the road ahead for the party that has held the reins of power for over three decades. How the military minded secretary general deals with the studious electoral commission chair will determine a lot. That and what the chair man does to the warring parties. 

The second debate

Yes the Election seems to be long past...and with that the much anticipated debate. So this is what we think are the highlights.

The crowning moment 

We got yet another dose of the King's poetry-and yes for him the debate was the thing. He was able to watch as the president attended the three hour do. After years in the judiciary as well as some translation work for the bible society he looked visibly exhausted but glad. He even made some mention about the possibility of overseeing another similar bout this time around 2021? 

Language matters 

Interesting to note as three prominent military men (Gen Biraro, Gen 

Yoweri Museveni and Colonel Warren Kizza Besigye) made their way onto the stage and got comfortable. One of the moderators-a lecturer at the Ivory Tower made clear what the 'rules of engagement were'. "Oh no," Said I, "that is a military term". And so in my view we said goodbye to level ground. This was going to be battle field and no one was going to take any prisoners. Events which manage to get the attention of a functioning head of state in the African Environment, can be overwhelming. Security at the Serena was also officially handed to the special forces group further sealing the fate of the participants. The Americans are a little different. The moment you begin to carry the scent of the presidency, they assign you a group of secret agents who begin to think of you in terms of the oval office-complete with code names and Black Chevy Suburbans! 

Seating arrangements 

The president was assigned a seat on the far end of the stage and was provided a buffer (Maureen Kyalya). She in a sense was tasked the responsibility of taking some heat on behalf of the president. The rest of the arrangements were pretty much the same as the first debate although this time around the empty seat was taken.

Over compensation 

The presence of the head of state was welcome by many who did not wish to see him come across as weak and fearful. His minders had made sure that most of the hostile ground was cleared. What the president therefore had was a touch of sympathy (which he used to the max). He began well with historical references a la Kyalya (in the first debate). But soon and with subsequent questions he appeared perturbed and agitated when accusations came flying in from opposition circles. He was able to take advantage of the time factor as many of the other participants had mentioned further opening the way for a format that suited his style. In the meantime there was an expression from Dr. Kizza Besigye who was now cornered into taking a more calm tone that his usual confrontational demeanor. 

Preemptive strikes 

To give the president much more leverage, his minders took what we would like to refer to as a preemptive strike. They made sure that Shaka Saali a prominent international voice in the American Media was silenced long before the debate. This they did by questioning his motives and mining through an archive of his older material to convince the president that he would not be a fair panelist. In a sense the 'drones' had done their work so that the 'ground troops would have an easier time getting those boots on the ground'. This gave the General much more leverage with the crowd. Shaka Ssali simply played it smart and just gave them what they asked for. He simply represented his brand with the words "get better not bitter" as well as his characteristic "I am deeply humbled and profoundly honored"

Late entries and local humor

Joseph Mabirizi arrived late but manage to grab the attention of the crowd by stating that the president is usually supposed to arrive late. Maureen Kyalya also mentioned her willingness to give an advisory position to the former president were she to gain access to state house. 

Here comes the Husky

D.J.T is awfully silent about the endorsement from the Tea Party Stalwart from the cold place up north and understandably so. About eight years ago, a floundering John MaCain brought her into his camp and quickly began to earn some points for his choice of a female running mate but it did not take long before the barrage of the attacks began and that with quite a lot of justification. 

This time around D.J.T just stood there and watched as she sprang into action rather glad to have an opportunity to get back into action after a long time away from visibility. The occupy movement is in hibernation and the tea party is probably watching the action for a chance to emerge with plenty of competition from the coffee bean. Any new movement that emerges would have to center around this essential new beverage that has redefined the manner in which the corporate class lives and works. 

Yes 2008 is upon us all over again. The markets are threatening to pull moves similar to what they did back in the day. The air is fresh for some sort of change and the grand old party can make a case for this kind of shift after eight years of democrat rule. 

Already we began to see moves to prevent Donald J. Trump from traveling to the U.K (in an effort to punish him for making anti islamic statements). 

We are yet to hear some major pronouncements around Israel and its powerful lobby, we are also still waiting to see what kinds of views he presents regarding the second amendment which seems to have been mistakenly intertwined with the right to bear arms, and then, on he has not meet with the secretive Bilderbag Group or the Council for Foreign Relations (two of three powerful groups which it is said often will guarantee one a place on the helm of the great Casa Blanca). 

D.J.T has also expressed some rather caustic remarks about illegal immigrants what we are not certain of is if this will affect that very important voting minority block which seems it have had a hand in putting the Republican George Walker Bush into office...for two terms. 

This voting block matters because experts continue to see a rise in population of Hispanic Americans. This could have a major effect on the vote come November but clearly Republican Dominated states will not let the current administration use his presidential power to create blanket decrees legalizing those with questionable paperwork. 

The same experts have placed D.J.T on the same level as Ted Cruz which is interesting because it gives the republicans an opportunity to vote for a change at least with regards to age and style or character as represented by D.J.T. Another possible beneficiary would be the other Bush who has run his state well and who is...you guessed it-married to a Hispanic American Woman-talk about being strategic!

Now Florida as you will remember came to the fore in the Bush Versus Carey an election that ended up begin much too close to call. But as we have noted before the dynamics in Florida have changed a lot since that vote almost 12 years ago. For starters, Cuban American Relations have undergone a seismic shift that will probably determine a lot about how the swing state votes. 

In addition to this, it is reported that B.H.O's presidency has been characterized by more deportations than any other presidency(earning him the title deporter in chief). So the number are not necessarily in favor of minorities. Besides that there is a possibility that much of the energy that existed in 2008 amongst African American voters (who if you will remember had to be encouraged to vote) has vanished driven to some extent by a surge in public murders (some argue executions) of mainly young unarmed black men. 

So all this should be featuring somewhere in the mind of the quintessential performer and entertainer as he watches his space of influence and as he begins to think of a strategy for the next phase of his campaign. It would be interesting should he go through, to see what choices he would make for running mate and if these choices would be centered on the need to appeal to minorities. What he has demonstrated though so far, is that he is in no hurry to bow down to anyone and is leaning heavily on his wit, intellect and straight shooting style. 

Post Debate Analysis

The venue 

Victoria Hall at the Serena in Kampala was chosen and a guest list of about one thousand people was selected. On the whole this went well but could have been worse had the proverbial net been cast a little wider on the lake. Across the road from the venue, crowds of enthusiastic late comers were seen gathering and cheering for their candidates with a touch of drama which is usually the back drop upon which campaigns in the rural parts of the country often take place. At some point, it was evident that certain aspects of 'culture' had been left at the door as Alan Kasujja was forced to take up the task of defending his co-host Nancy Kacungira against a barrage of agitations that was rising from the crowd. 

The hosts 

The choice of hosts was interesting. The first-Alan Kasujja a former radio personality who cut his teeth on a local station (Capital FM) the other Nancy Kacungira currently working on KTN (a station that has quite a large audience in Kenya and that was set up in the late nineties to provide an alternative to the media-government-led giants like KBC). 

Interesting because they are both currently working outside the country and carrying the flag...whether they want to or not. They are de facto ambassadors of culture and national thinking. If anything goes wrong back in their yards, they are bound to asked for some commentary. So we do understand the frustrations they expressed when they asked some of the questions and when they received some of the responses. 

The second idea that I think these host represented was that of a coach who seems to want to beat his student and who has to deal with the idea of being misunderstood by the same in order to transfer a useful skill to the understudy. In that sense the hosts were supposed to be coaches and to be as hard as possible on the candidates in order to give them a feel of the global stage and its cut throat attitudes and practices. 

We have managed to find our list of journalists on the local scene who we know can give the candidates a run for their money. Maybe there should be three sets of debates. One hosted by local journalist, the other by not so local journalists and then finally one by heavy hitters who can make them squirm. 

The candidates 

The case can be made about the choice of candidates with many being viewed as merely plants by higher powers. But if those were the initial intentions of those above to give an illusion of a democratic process, the result was devastatingly bad. These plants quickly decided to milk this thing for all it is worth demanding body guards and cash payments and jumping on planes to extend their influence. 

The experts decided that this really was a debate to select the candidate that would be most fit to stand in opposition to the presidency. And yes even if the chair was empty, this was the position for the debate only. The chair even at a time of elections is still being used to fund large chunks of the campaign and the house of state is still centre stage in the organization of state machinery to facilitate the elections process. 

The questions 

The first was really a standard question. It was the leaders pitch. The forum for democratic change and it's candidate stood out and took advantage of the idea that they had similar debates in the choice of front runner and so he really was in his space. Mr. Mabirizi started off well making full use of his age and the idea that he amongst all the candidates the least tainted. Mrs. Kyalya used the stage to the maximum making a distinction between herself and the men and presenting a historical case of a nation which in her view has a fault in its systems. 

At some point those present were asked to direct questions to the other candidates. Maybe this was designed to allow for some more confrontation between the guests. And it did result on some interesting responses.

The crowd

The one thousand person crowd started off well but soon there were deteriorations in its demeanor. Maybe they simply wished to express disappointment in the the types of questions and the appearance of bias. Maybe what we missed most from the crowd was a census from them to give us an idea how they viewed the debate. 

The missing 

The chair was empty but some errors in response from the former prime minister made it look like he was really just a representative of his former boss. This emerged when he failed to ask anything from the others who shared a stage with him and then went on to look rather condescendingly at them. In a sense he was saying publicly what his former boss had said privately (in part by not showing up). 

In addition to this, it became clear that unless a change In the constitution took place, the one who would win this election...if he came from one of the seven would simply be too powerful and extend or even worsen the state of politics in the country. 

In addition to this it was rather interesting that at the time of his absence that the president was busy in Kizza Besigye backyard of Bushenyi campaigning as his Doctor was debating. 

The organizers 

The man who stole the show at least at the start was the retried judge James Ogoola who over the years, like a U.S president has had a fair measure of grey over his head. We did not see too much in terms of input from the overall group of religious leaders who formed the heart of this debate but we did see the judge and did hear his poetry. 

The candidates (General Biraro-of the farmers party) viewed the event as the only level ground they had in the whole election process and rightly so. It was in the interest of the candidates therefore to make the most of the public space and to take advantage of the publicity. Maybe the organizers need to make sure that the debate finds its way into the election process so that future presidents are forced to participate. 

The president and his crew on the other hand had the advantage of watching from a distance in one of lodges, using this as a learning opportunity and gathering material for use in his future operations. The difference between a strategist and a tactician is really about the length of time within which they must execute their plans and the ability to use and judge current circumstances. 

The coverage 

NBS has benefitted greatly from a mass exodus of some of NTVs most experienced hosts. Some of these have also joined the group from WBS. Maybe the state of play at the media houses is also a reflection of the election process and the importance many of us attach to the work place and the bottom line. NBS chose to have a group of hosts to cover the event and took full advantage of location and crews across key spots in the country. Much like the coverage of the NRM primaries (which was also brilliantly covered). For the primaries they had coverage across the city with some very experienced journalists trading places in the studio as in the field mixing both humor and analysis. At some point it was frightening to watch the dance between the view points wondering if those who had stayed in the office, really should have been on site. Overall coverage for NBS was therefore a marathon of sorts reminiscent of the recent MTN race which had three distinct groups, 10KM, 21KM and then the whopping 42KM. The journalists clearly chose the full marathon and were present for the full exhausting day for most of the stations. 

The comforts 

At the end of the day perhaps the best thing to watch about the debates was the point at which the candidates settled down and began to express themselves as career people. 

It was great to hear Dr. Besigye speak not as a candidate necessarily but as a doctor. Yes the hippocratic oath was obvious as he spoke and I did feel like he should have spoken at length about health for one and possibly education. The exhaustion of being in the proverbial battle field was probably much too excessive to the point where we all forgot to see him as the doctor. In hindsight maybe controversial trip to the hospital now makes a little more sense. Since his detractors are attempting to take steal his thunder (and the change message) he should begin to think of his campaign in terms of health and present himself as the candidate who can heal the nation. 

Mrs. Kyalya on the other hand made full use of of her credentials in the social space and chose to market herself as a social scientist. 

Mr. Mbabazi gave us a glimpse into his background in intelligence work when he attempted to explain with humor the difference between a safe house and a 'safe' house. Some of his training in law also came to the surface but overall his experience in government became both an asset and a liability. 

Dr. Bwanika should have made a lot more use of his experience in Agriculture which in a sense he did when he responded to the question regarding Agriculture and it's role in the economy. 

Pastor Mabirizi attempted to read his youth manifesto but was prevented from doing so. He may have come up ahead of the rest of the crew as quite a number of ads begin to emerge post debate with the request and demand that we read the youth manifesto. 

Putting my money where my mouth is-a Kadaga Presidency?

A few months ago. I stated how most of my political money was placed in favor of a certain Lady from Busoga- currently doing quite well in Parliament. I attempted to place or create some parallels with the elections in the U.S which post B.H.O are still struggling with the idea of change. I argued that the next choice of presidency would attempt to use the change mantra in either extending its reign (for the democrats) or demanding the same (republicans) except with possible majorities where it really matters. 

So I was concerned whether we Hillary Clinton would campaign mainly as a women in which case push further for change and yes a possible first of a woman in the White House. Perhaps she would use her husbands amazing appeal to catapult herself into the oval office. Then there was Carla Fiorina who made some splashes of her own and that with the extra bonus of quite a lot of business experience. 

Broadly speaking therefore I wondered about the idea behind families as centers of power and at Americas futile attempt at monarchical rule. The Kennedy family was probably a notable group that made this first dash at this idea albeit with complex consequences. So one one side we had the families and the idea of firsts. The first female president, the first family to return to the white house. Then there was Jeb Bush who would also be quite a record breaker were he to make it. He would have to use the advantage of race in the process. He would have to leverage his wife's ethnicity and draw in the Hispanic vote. Whether or not the black vote would buy into this would prove important. 

The other idea that would drive this can force would be the tendency towards post card moments and Hollywood. I argue that even against better judgement many Americans would want to have been part of the major historic moments of firsts. This and the "better the devil you know than the angel you don't". But this places both the Clinton's and the Bush family on the same footing. 

Uganda now has similar challenges. Kiza Besigye has managed to bring the idea of change to the heart of his message. He has personified in some respects the notion of change. I am not certain who borrowed from who but 2016 feels a lot like 2008. Change we can believe in-Barack Hussein Obama's famous campaign slogan. Amama Mbabazi has also latched onto the change agenda but has added the dimension of an rather extensive intelligence based campaign strategy. He argues that the bulk of the NRM party is on his side even if a good number of former colleagues and understudies have found it easier to avoid him. He has also made full use of social media (utube,twitter and Facebook) much like President Obama. The only difference is that he has not at least on the surface managed to create massive registration drives of marginalized youth as well as a collection of volunteers to support and drive his process. The FDC candidate on the other hand continues to control the passions of city dwellers who from the very start would make massive attempts to give him money (notable because we this is a very tight fisted populace). 

So Rebecca Kadaga's reported decision to stand in 2021 is interesting because she seems to guarantee a victory for the president (by claiming that she will stand against him). Which would seem impossible we're he to be defeated in 2016 (it would be very difficult to re-enter the political space). This also means that she may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel after attempts by Miria Obote who took jabs at the presidency knowing quite well that the machinery of her once powerful Uganda People's Congress would be useful in getting her close to the coveted seat. Others with similar chromosomes where Betty Olive Kamya who made Federo the heart of her campaign. And now Maureen Kyalya. 

Kyalya hails from the Busoga region which to be fair is on the up even if it could be better (if compared to the per-independence years). But like Buganda both have monarchies which are barred from major political events and whose monarchies have struggled under the weight of intrigue. She (Kyalya) has used the tribal card very well. She simply rebuked her people and stated that they should cease voting in people who are not Basoga. She expressed sentiments that are very often right under the surface of culturally sensitive tribal-rich African states that could be used anywhere on the continent where one tribe or two have continued to dominate the politics on the proverbial hill. 

So this is interesting because the resistance movement is losing its sense of awe and fear of the first family. This has come about after a series of similar and related events most notable of which was the exist of the blue eyes boy-Amama Mbabazi. 

But another major fissure has arisen in the political space which is the realization for many youth that there is an entrenched older elite that unlike the president has created a massive banyan root structure in the rural political sphere. Kahinda Otafire, Rebecca Kadaga, Amama Mbabazi, Sam Kutesa to name just a few are some of members of parliament that have kept their seats with as much fervor as has the president the bigger seat. A fellow solider took on General Otafire but you know 'Military is as military does'. And maybe these historicals as they have come to be know are teaching us something about the political thought in Uganda. That in some regards one must protect the rural seat and use it to as capital to gain and advance career and rule.