Update from the British Isles

Damned if she does and damned if she does not

So the long awaited poll took place and from what we gather has left many speechless. It has helped clarify
quite a number of things for Theresa May. The experts tell us that she was damned from the start if she did hold
the poll and damned if she did not hold the poll. Either way she needed to make sure she had some kind
of mandate. Had she soldiered on, she would have been questioned and challenged.
There was a sense of Deja Vu at least on this side of the activity and all i could think about was the confident
Sri Lankan head of state who called a snap election only to be ousted by his prime (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/sri-lanka-elections-150818133605788.html).
Democracy Sometimes sucks

The former Home Office head needed and still needs some kind of mandate for this is no simple
task as the Brits seek to respond to the needs of their populace. Here is where Democracy sucks. To have to make
such grave decision when the gap between two opposed parties is so slim. One of the issues that has emerged post
poll is the idea of experience. The same experts have wondered if one needs a little more than just an
office in the Home Office with some additional skill from say the Exchequer or the Foreign Office. So they have ploughed into her in this regard. But to be clear there is nothing comfortable about this divorce.
The Europeans are under pressure to deal harshly with the Brits lest they loose their momentum and the few
enthusiastic members they still have left in the Union. So the Brits need to unite under one banner. What this means
is that there is really not going to be any thing soft about the Brexit. The best that the Brits can hope for is
an extension that drags the process on and ends up causing a sense of fatigue. In addition to this a deliberate
attempt to ruin the process of May can prove fruitful if it manages to earn them time and compassion from the
European Union.
Not so gentle response from the Economist

The age old publisher has not been very kind with regard to this new leadership core. According to the magazine,
this has not been the best team in a long while (http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723101-country-will-soon-go-bat-against-brussels-one-its-weakest-teams-decades).
They argue that the British have not had the best of choices.
And they may be some truth in this. Firstly, one should not expect great leaders unless they rise in the background of
tough times. This maybe the very thing that causes them to be great. The circumstances under which they rise
tend to form the leaders. Secondly, the same seems to be the case in the now more experimental France
as well as Holland and the U.S where the populace has not really sat down to chose with ease but have been
forced to chose between the better of two evils.
A response to circumstance

It is not easy to understand what drove the response from the British but there is some evidence that a major split
is increasing between the young and the aged. The former were more responsive this time around and may
have been responsible for Mr. Corbyn's success. The generational split is therefore symptomatic of more to come
and of a handover between the generations that is not taking place. All eyes are on the French and Macron who is
re-writing French history as a one year old party "marches" on to victory. Why these kinds of movements have failed in duopolies like the U.S is a story for another day. Additional troubles have arisen in Conservative strongholds (extremely wealthy) which have voted for Labour (traditionally working class party).
The Americans

There is a possibility that the Americans saw this coming and the relationship between the two will strengthen. The Brits need to have an economic relationship that can fill in an gaps that they may appear after the exit. The challenge will be in making deals with the great 'deal maker' who at this point still has a soft spot for the English. While for some its seems like a descent into madness in slow motion, there are reasons to be hopeful. This side of the hemisphere we had visits from more contrite colonial masters who were looking to revive old deals as well as revive commonwealth sentiments.
Skapegoats
 
Taking the blame for the troubles in the party and jettisoning staff members may work for now but what the party needs more that anything is unity for the whole. There is some nobility in falling on your sword and this is even sounding like a page out of an Asian Playbook. Contrition is great but this latest appeal to party-mates seems like a frightening return to a strategy that failed during the elections when the whole fight was turned into a personal fight and not a broader fight for the party. This was no presidential election they said so refusing her from making it about her should also apply this side of the broader election loss. The electorate is no longer the same passive group of 'hoodwinkable-knownothings' that can be lulled into passivity. They will respond with the vote and reject all those who are perceived as not having Britain at heart. There is a revolution in the first world and it has everything to do with the ballot box.

45 and his "I told you so" moment

So as we expected the events on London's Bridge and the subsequent attacks have drawn us back to pre-election time and to DJT's "what the hell is going on?" comment. This is interesting because right before the British go for a significant poll, the PM is beginning to sound a little like her American Colleague (whose handshake and welcome was much more warm!). Critics of the Home Secretary as she was then have been at her heels saddened at the references and allusions to these recent events as 'pivotal' as though the previous attacks have had no effect. They have also pointed to some notable reforms made during her tenure which significantly brought down the numbers of men in Uniform in a fight that looks like will continue to involve the police. The numbers are not in her favour with the odds stacked against law enforcement in a fight that is becoming more like a internal guerilla war of attrition that is depending heavily on media and copy cat crimes sourced from all over Europe (France and Germany). Experts are even calling for the return of previous more experienced recruits to help strengthen the British Force.
Given the extent at which the American President was fought and the manner in which the Legislative branch fought his actions we see an extended and re-awakened push for tougher reform from a president who does not like to look bad. Already the blame game has been up and the tech industry is refusing to get involved with those who misuse its spaces. In the meantime privacy will again be compromised on the alter of security and the tech giants will find themselves forced to lean closer to governments whose level of trust with local citizenry has been eroded over the years. Both Islam and Judaism have managed to engage so deeply with their adherents to the point where it is often difficult to split between religion and culture (way of life). This thin line will continue to cause challenges for both with some of the mainstream faiths such as Christianity taking on a mediator role. We see no immediate upsets in the electoral process although off course security is going to be central in the thoughts of the electorate. We also see a sense of exhaustion with the Brexit challenges and a populace that really just want the government to get on with it. If there is a key word that can summarize the days to come it would be uncertainty. In addition to this i expect to see some surprises as the characteristically cool and stiff upper lip of the Englishman begins to shake. Maybe the reported hail of bullets (50 rounds in three men) that was pumped into the assailants is already evidence this.

Kiyini kibi kijjukirwa Malima-The DP Dilemma

The Ganda have a saying that basically translates to the idea that the only way you realise that something is wrong with your digging implement is when the time to dig comes. Then you more easily think about fixing the
stick.

In Uganda this means many things but first and most important of all is that as far as symbolism goes, the Democratic party made some great choices with regards to icons. This being a agrarian community
and all. As did Bidandi Saali with the choice of
a lantern and later on FDC with the key.

You have to go quite a distance before you run into a bus...and a yellow one at that. The best you can do is maybe find your way into an American public school.

For the parties on the local scene, and for the democratic party, digging time came in 2016. And after a terrible
and maybe unavoidable set of circumstances, the party fell
short. They like the UPC were unable to field a candidate. 2011 deprived UPC of any significant plays in the political space while 2016 was the year that DP suffered. All of this took place under hopes that the emergence John Patrick Amama Mbabazi would prove to be a formidable for the president but the ambitions of the older players were too difficult to calm. Talk of a coalition soon failed with each prospective candidate perceiving himself to be the right replacement for the presidency.

So this was the time when DP and its 'Kiyini' were tested. 'Malima' came and does come every five years but as far as parties go, the loss of life can serve as a great opportunity to win a seat in the
constituency.
A war of attrition against all political parties of significance had Al Hajji Nasser Sebagala lose to Mao, in a move that had some maybe tribal minded people viewed as a coup deta. But no none with a knowledge of history was really going to buy into the idea that DP was
really a ganda party. If anything, the party is more Catholic and needs to depend on its links to the Mother Church.
The same plague has man thinking of the UPC in terms of the Acholi who have been at the helm for a while while forgetting its Protestant roots. In our view, UPC needs to lean into its mother church at Nakasero or Namirembe.

One of the major criticisms that has emerged in the current battle for spots, which some are seeing more as a succession debate has to do with party structure and thus membership which have both been articulated well by the Buganda regional head.

Historical considerations have brought about a series of challenges that have had us feeling as though we were back in the sixties
dealing with a King, Prime Minister, an Army general and a state at war with itself.

The regional head for Buganda has called for a come comprehensive
resturcturing program that will make membership of political parties more costly and therefore more important and beneficial. This is a
call that makes sense accross all parties and that reveals a flaw that needs fixing. It is also useful in creating a democratic system that
favors institutions as opposed to personalities.

Dens, Leaks, English Monarchs and Southern States.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking. 

There are some changes in Ecuador that may bring in a new leader. 

Is there going to be a new strategy and response to the Wikileaks questions? Is the new government going to continue sticking it to the British by harboring the Whistle Blower? Rafael Corera is clearly an outlier. He is an eccentric. He loves the attention that he received from serving up the west with a fair measure of their own medicine. He probably falls into the same category as Ceaser Chavez and the current Nicholas Maduro, as well as Christina Fernandez Of Argentina, and naturally their great mentor of Cuba. 

So there is a southern front but it is weakened and threatened by some of the overtures from the new U.S administration which is using Mexico (the gateway into the U.S) to find a new way of dealing with the southern states. Memories of Reagan are still fresh the minds of historians and so is U.S involvement and support of paramilitary groups. 

The drug wars are important and may be used in the U.S as they were in China (opium wars) where they were responsible at least in part for wearing down the existing aristocracy (the middle class in the U.S can be equated to the monarchs of the day in China). 

The additional strain exists in trade as the current head of state begins to think about a rethink of the agreements that favor business between the Americas and Canada. 

Does the U.K still care given their current state of challenges with like Brexit? 

Also how does the case against the whistleblower stand given the amount of unsolicited support that he has received from none other that POTUS himself? Should the words of the president be seen as a pardon of sorts or should be separate between the case against him in the U.S and the charges that are set against him in Europe and Australia? How can you judge fairly someone who had been praised by the fountain of Honor? 

Russia has probably won the Hegemony wars that have characterized the post cold war era. At least her footprint in the middle east will prove difficult to replace. 

Does Edward Snowden have have enough room to play and does he know enough to sink the current administration? Did he already exhaust those who were listening with enough info? 

If he is still an enemy of state, is it fair to separate between his acts and those of the wikileaks founder? 

The business of intelligence has changed and now instead of favoring states, in the conventional sense the system favors corporations. And now we are seeing more of those that have stood at the helm of these groups come to the forefront of leadership so that the are negotiating for their countries yes but also for their businesses and personal interests across continents. 

This is resulting in a more important fourth estate as well as a fifth which given its freedom has found itself benefiting from the machinery its more constrained neighbor. The whistleblowers found the Information but had to depend of the larger media companies for distribution and to some extent protection. 

So instead of focusing too deeply on traditional states, we will find ourselves paying close attention to commodities and the men that manage and control access to these commodities. 

While still benefitting from the work and sacrifice of the whistleblower he will become increasingly isolated unless he is able to find a territory whose devotion to truth exceeds its concern for its global agreements. 

2017 as it shall be and 2016 as it was.

You are pretty safe watching the Ugandan space and making all your predictions based on what you see here.
Politics.
Yes we made it through an election of sorts which some thought better to refer to as a selection. There was a crescendo of sorts as we edged steadily to the precipice. The only difference was that this time around a podium was used to serve as trading post from which the slaves (ok civil servants) who sort to serve the country would be examined. I would watch this carefully because there is a resurgence of global race issues that will bring about an export of values in a manner never before seen. You will for example see ancient arab slave traders revived and old trades come to the surface. There will be a return of the ancients (although if you watch carefully enough you will realize that they never really left in the first place). You will come across borders and nations whose functions will be reduced to the production of commodities much like the Islands of old. Some Heads of state will be see as caretakers of massive plantation Nations.
Preachers.
As has been the case for a while now, we saw an increase in influence from the pastoral group. The same has remain silent on the presidency and the duration in office. If you want an example of the power of the church you need to visit the far east and examine the manner in which the priests in the Catholic Church in Nations like the Philippines managed political change. The election process was interesting also or really because of the participation of old school Resistance Movement People but because of the rise or involvement of a preacher/engineer...actually two. But these two were not the same as the other about four who fill stadia and can easily command a following in the tens of thousands. That we live in a religious nations is one thing. That we have the ability to harness this religious belief into a force for political change is a question for another day. In the meantime there are two or three major camps. The Christians are struggling to find a unifying body. What exists is one that unites Balokole. This group is made up of a thriving spiritual folk that still has wounds from the Amin Days. He struggled to rein them in as he attempted to deal with American Involvement and the fall out from Accusations He leveled against Israel. The Balokole at the moment are split into groups that are worried about being clustered and registered under a group that places them in the same category as NGOs and CSOs. There are fears that this kind of registrations will place the divine in the hands of the secular. Then there are traditional churches and religious groups most of which still have historical seats on the strategic seven Hills of the country. The Catholics and the Protestants and the Muslims are safe at the moment but the head of state has a penchant for bypassing them and heading straight to the source to say the Vatican or Windsor or maybe distributing air-conditioned SUVs.
Prophets.
An important office that has re-emerged and that could stall the progress of the major centers of power. Should this office seek access to the main seats of power we will see the confrontation of the ages. Think Mt. Carmel. The most important character you will find in our day would be the Shepard and his relations to his flock. For some reason the maker seems to have restricted his conversations to working men who he found in their particular trades and then helped translate their experiences into messages that would transcend time. There will be a strange encounter between a 'shepherd' and an 'embassy official' both prominent personalities.
Pastors
The previous reference to shepherd is really about Pastor.. This is the most important group. I see it come to the fore in a new way. Calling those who are functions of the five fold back into the fold. I do not celebrate the successes of the right over the left (in U.S Elections). That is not my job. Your democracy is supposed to way above all that. If you have to wait until the next election cycle to express yourself and to promote new agenda over another then there is something wrong. What this will result in will be a distortion in immigration and a drawn out war between both sides. The American people will only end up loosing. What is better or preferable is to ensure the best Education system and a major investment into citizens so that they can think and be critical and creative again.
Press.
There is going to be a force against the press that will bring about a different sense of expression. Maybe the press will be emboldened maybe some member of the core will be 'turned' the bough will break and the dam will burst. Years of watching and saying nothing will explode in prominent personalities that have graced our living rooms and it will become impossible to say nothing and remain objective. Traditional points of reference and places of vulnerability will cease as many will take up positions in political spaces blurring the lines between presenter and politician and puppet.

Two major players in a complex and diverse country.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

There are two hemispheres in the brain. In a strange way they control what happens in opposite sides of the human body. So the right side of he brain can be responsible for all the activities on the left side of the body and so on. But sometimes there is a disconnect between the two halves. The arbiter sometimes goes out to lunch. What happens when this takes place is that the work done but the right side is not recorded log book of current activities the result is the undoing of stuff that one side has just done. A patient was seen buttoning his shirt with his right hand only to unbutton the same shirt with the left hand.
As we progress and shift gears into the next phase of ours Iives whether that is four or eight years, let us hope for a quick diagnosis of this problem so that we can help the two hemispheres of our political life function better. Currently, we only have two major ones (the debates about increasing them will be reserved for another day) the Democrats and the Republicans. We desperately need to find a middle ground of sensible actions that benefit all Americans. If we fail to do this, the presidency will be reduced to executive orders. In addition to this we will find ourselves going through cycles of doing and undoing. Which will be governed by who we elect and how long we elect them for.
In addition to this, the first term will become much harder for freshly elected presidents who as is the case today will spend time working through the projects of previous presidents as opposed to delivering on their own promises.

Defining the Presidency.

Transition, Transformation and Radical Thinking.

There are few things that are going to define the presidency. The first will take place around mid year or much later depending what states you are in. It is called Hurricane Season. For that reason, you need to pick your disaster management team with caution. If you look back to the Bush years (Walker-The Texas Ranger not Herbert) you will notice that everything was going great until Katrina Happened. Then some fissures appeared in the teams that had been put in place. But to be fair that was a disaster unlike any other but it still define a good part of the second term for that president and in a sense managed to fix the change message with the democrats picked up with glee. Al Gore who has also just recently lost a significant fight was also able to continue his march and message toward the effect on the Environment. In what could become a two term presidency therefore FEMA needs to be revisited. The second challenge will be about external pressure to engage with foreign military groups. Pulling back is good and helps focus energies on local challenges but your predecessor (The Texas Ranger) was very insistent on the need to take the battle to them as a means of preventing attack on local soil. Finding a balance for this strategic move will be important. My guess is that you will also need to revive the Faith Based Initiatives which i believe cover all bases and religions and were designed to simplify the relationship between people of faith and the practice of that faith. The next challenge will come (God forbid) should there be another incident in a school and will continue to challenge your belief and relationship with the Second Amendment. There was a brief scuffle in the midwest but this was not covered well by the media and in my view was probably the closest we came to applying the right to bear arms-which is mainly in my view supposed to apply to the need to create a militia should there be failures in government. The NRA will come to the fore again but your earlier position regarding gun control and background checks should help you in silencing of Ghosts of Presidencies Past. The manner in which the process of selecting a new head of state was altered in many ways and DJT did not seem to need to courtesy around the traditional lobby groups as did other presidents but the presence of a son in law will take this battle to anther level. If there are any deals (or past confrontations) that took place in NY (a heartland for Jewish thinkers) these could come back to haunt you. We already see this playing out with the media but we are almost certain that you are well placed to handle any fist fights from that section of the big apple. The press will start by hating you but later on they will come around and up their game.