Here comes the Husky

D.J.T is awfully silent about the endorsement from the Tea Party Stalwart from the cold place up north and understandably so. About eight years ago, a floundering John MaCain brought her into his camp and quickly began to earn some points for his choice of a female running mate but it did not take long before the barrage of the attacks began and that with quite a lot of justification. 

This time around D.J.T just stood there and watched as she sprang into action rather glad to have an opportunity to get back into action after a long time away from visibility. The occupy movement is in hibernation and the tea party is probably watching the action for a chance to emerge with plenty of competition from the coffee bean. Any new movement that emerges would have to center around this essential new beverage that has redefined the manner in which the corporate class lives and works. 

Yes 2008 is upon us all over again. The markets are threatening to pull moves similar to what they did back in the day. The air is fresh for some sort of change and the grand old party can make a case for this kind of shift after eight years of democrat rule. 

Already we began to see moves to prevent Donald J. Trump from traveling to the U.K (in an effort to punish him for making anti islamic statements). 

We are yet to hear some major pronouncements around Israel and its powerful lobby, we are also still waiting to see what kinds of views he presents regarding the second amendment which seems to have been mistakenly intertwined with the right to bear arms, and then, on he has not meet with the secretive Bilderbag Group or the Council for Foreign Relations (two of three powerful groups which it is said often will guarantee one a place on the helm of the great Casa Blanca). 

D.J.T has also expressed some rather caustic remarks about illegal immigrants what we are not certain of is if this will affect that very important voting minority block which seems it have had a hand in putting the Republican George Walker Bush into office...for two terms. 

This voting block matters because experts continue to see a rise in population of Hispanic Americans. This could have a major effect on the vote come November but clearly Republican Dominated states will not let the current administration use his presidential power to create blanket decrees legalizing those with questionable paperwork. 

The same experts have placed D.J.T on the same level as Ted Cruz which is interesting because it gives the republicans an opportunity to vote for a change at least with regards to age and style or character as represented by D.J.T. Another possible beneficiary would be the other Bush who has run his state well and who is...you guessed it-married to a Hispanic American Woman-talk about being strategic!

Now Florida as you will remember came to the fore in the Bush Versus Carey an election that ended up begin much too close to call. But as we have noted before the dynamics in Florida have changed a lot since that vote almost 12 years ago. For starters, Cuban American Relations have undergone a seismic shift that will probably determine a lot about how the swing state votes. 

In addition to this, it is reported that B.H.O's presidency has been characterized by more deportations than any other presidency(earning him the title deporter in chief). So the number are not necessarily in favor of minorities. Besides that there is a possibility that much of the energy that existed in 2008 amongst African American voters (who if you will remember had to be encouraged to vote) has vanished driven to some extent by a surge in public murders (some argue executions) of mainly young unarmed black men. 

So all this should be featuring somewhere in the mind of the quintessential performer and entertainer as he watches his space of influence and as he begins to think of a strategy for the next phase of his campaign. It would be interesting should he go through, to see what choices he would make for running mate and if these choices would be centered on the need to appeal to minorities. What he has demonstrated though so far, is that he is in no hurry to bow down to anyone and is leaning heavily on his wit, intellect and straight shooting style. 

Post Debate Analysis

The venue 

Victoria Hall at the Serena in Kampala was chosen and a guest list of about one thousand people was selected. On the whole this went well but could have been worse had the proverbial net been cast a little wider on the lake. Across the road from the venue, crowds of enthusiastic late comers were seen gathering and cheering for their candidates with a touch of drama which is usually the back drop upon which campaigns in the rural parts of the country often take place. At some point, it was evident that certain aspects of 'culture' had been left at the door as Alan Kasujja was forced to take up the task of defending his co-host Nancy Kacungira against a barrage of agitations that was rising from the crowd. 

The hosts 

The choice of hosts was interesting. The first-Alan Kasujja a former radio personality who cut his teeth on a local station (Capital FM) the other Nancy Kacungira currently working on KTN (a station that has quite a large audience in Kenya and that was set up in the late nineties to provide an alternative to the media-government-led giants like KBC). 

Interesting because they are both currently working outside the country and carrying the flag...whether they want to or not. They are de facto ambassadors of culture and national thinking. If anything goes wrong back in their yards, they are bound to asked for some commentary. So we do understand the frustrations they expressed when they asked some of the questions and when they received some of the responses. 

The second idea that I think these host represented was that of a coach who seems to want to beat his student and who has to deal with the idea of being misunderstood by the same in order to transfer a useful skill to the understudy. In that sense the hosts were supposed to be coaches and to be as hard as possible on the candidates in order to give them a feel of the global stage and its cut throat attitudes and practices. 

We have managed to find our list of journalists on the local scene who we know can give the candidates a run for their money. Maybe there should be three sets of debates. One hosted by local journalist, the other by not so local journalists and then finally one by heavy hitters who can make them squirm. 

The candidates 

The case can be made about the choice of candidates with many being viewed as merely plants by higher powers. But if those were the initial intentions of those above to give an illusion of a democratic process, the result was devastatingly bad. These plants quickly decided to milk this thing for all it is worth demanding body guards and cash payments and jumping on planes to extend their influence. 

The experts decided that this really was a debate to select the candidate that would be most fit to stand in opposition to the presidency. And yes even if the chair was empty, this was the position for the debate only. The chair even at a time of elections is still being used to fund large chunks of the campaign and the house of state is still centre stage in the organization of state machinery to facilitate the elections process. 

The questions 

The first was really a standard question. It was the leaders pitch. The forum for democratic change and it's candidate stood out and took advantage of the idea that they had similar debates in the choice of front runner and so he really was in his space. Mr. Mabirizi started off well making full use of his age and the idea that he amongst all the candidates the least tainted. Mrs. Kyalya used the stage to the maximum making a distinction between herself and the men and presenting a historical case of a nation which in her view has a fault in its systems. 

At some point those present were asked to direct questions to the other candidates. Maybe this was designed to allow for some more confrontation between the guests. And it did result on some interesting responses.

The crowd

The one thousand person crowd started off well but soon there were deteriorations in its demeanor. Maybe they simply wished to express disappointment in the the types of questions and the appearance of bias. Maybe what we missed most from the crowd was a census from them to give us an idea how they viewed the debate. 

The missing 

The chair was empty but some errors in response from the former prime minister made it look like he was really just a representative of his former boss. This emerged when he failed to ask anything from the others who shared a stage with him and then went on to look rather condescendingly at them. In a sense he was saying publicly what his former boss had said privately (in part by not showing up). 

In addition to this, it became clear that unless a change In the constitution took place, the one who would win this election...if he came from one of the seven would simply be too powerful and extend or even worsen the state of politics in the country. 

In addition to this it was rather interesting that at the time of his absence that the president was busy in Kizza Besigye backyard of Bushenyi campaigning as his Doctor was debating. 

The organizers 

The man who stole the show at least at the start was the retried judge James Ogoola who over the years, like a U.S president has had a fair measure of grey over his head. We did not see too much in terms of input from the overall group of religious leaders who formed the heart of this debate but we did see the judge and did hear his poetry. 

The candidates (General Biraro-of the farmers party) viewed the event as the only level ground they had in the whole election process and rightly so. It was in the interest of the candidates therefore to make the most of the public space and to take advantage of the publicity. Maybe the organizers need to make sure that the debate finds its way into the election process so that future presidents are forced to participate. 

The president and his crew on the other hand had the advantage of watching from a distance in one of lodges, using this as a learning opportunity and gathering material for use in his future operations. The difference between a strategist and a tactician is really about the length of time within which they must execute their plans and the ability to use and judge current circumstances. 

The coverage 

NBS has benefitted greatly from a mass exodus of some of NTVs most experienced hosts. Some of these have also joined the group from WBS. Maybe the state of play at the media houses is also a reflection of the election process and the importance many of us attach to the work place and the bottom line. NBS chose to have a group of hosts to cover the event and took full advantage of location and crews across key spots in the country. Much like the coverage of the NRM primaries (which was also brilliantly covered). For the primaries they had coverage across the city with some very experienced journalists trading places in the studio as in the field mixing both humor and analysis. At some point it was frightening to watch the dance between the view points wondering if those who had stayed in the office, really should have been on site. Overall coverage for NBS was therefore a marathon of sorts reminiscent of the recent MTN race which had three distinct groups, 10KM, 21KM and then the whopping 42KM. The journalists clearly chose the full marathon and were present for the full exhausting day for most of the stations. 

The comforts 

At the end of the day perhaps the best thing to watch about the debates was the point at which the candidates settled down and began to express themselves as career people. 

It was great to hear Dr. Besigye speak not as a candidate necessarily but as a doctor. Yes the hippocratic oath was obvious as he spoke and I did feel like he should have spoken at length about health for one and possibly education. The exhaustion of being in the proverbial battle field was probably much too excessive to the point where we all forgot to see him as the doctor. In hindsight maybe controversial trip to the hospital now makes a little more sense. Since his detractors are attempting to take steal his thunder (and the change message) he should begin to think of his campaign in terms of health and present himself as the candidate who can heal the nation. 

Mrs. Kyalya on the other hand made full use of of her credentials in the social space and chose to market herself as a social scientist. 

Mr. Mbabazi gave us a glimpse into his background in intelligence work when he attempted to explain with humor the difference between a safe house and a 'safe' house. Some of his training in law also came to the surface but overall his experience in government became both an asset and a liability. 

Dr. Bwanika should have made a lot more use of his experience in Agriculture which in a sense he did when he responded to the question regarding Agriculture and it's role in the economy. 

Pastor Mabirizi attempted to read his youth manifesto but was prevented from doing so. He may have come up ahead of the rest of the crew as quite a number of ads begin to emerge post debate with the request and demand that we read the youth manifesto. 

Putting my money where my mouth is-a Kadaga Presidency?

A few months ago. I stated how most of my political money was placed in favor of a certain Lady from Busoga- currently doing quite well in Parliament. I attempted to place or create some parallels with the elections in the U.S which post B.H.O are still struggling with the idea of change. I argued that the next choice of presidency would attempt to use the change mantra in either extending its reign (for the democrats) or demanding the same (republicans) except with possible majorities where it really matters. 

So I was concerned whether we Hillary Clinton would campaign mainly as a women in which case push further for change and yes a possible first of a woman in the White House. Perhaps she would use her husbands amazing appeal to catapult herself into the oval office. Then there was Carla Fiorina who made some splashes of her own and that with the extra bonus of quite a lot of business experience. 

Broadly speaking therefore I wondered about the idea behind families as centers of power and at Americas futile attempt at monarchical rule. The Kennedy family was probably a notable group that made this first dash at this idea albeit with complex consequences. So one one side we had the families and the idea of firsts. The first female president, the first family to return to the white house. Then there was Jeb Bush who would also be quite a record breaker were he to make it. He would have to use the advantage of race in the process. He would have to leverage his wife's ethnicity and draw in the Hispanic vote. Whether or not the black vote would buy into this would prove important. 

The other idea that would drive this can force would be the tendency towards post card moments and Hollywood. I argue that even against better judgement many Americans would want to have been part of the major historic moments of firsts. This and the "better the devil you know than the angel you don't". But this places both the Clinton's and the Bush family on the same footing. 

Uganda now has similar challenges. Kiza Besigye has managed to bring the idea of change to the heart of his message. He has personified in some respects the notion of change. I am not certain who borrowed from who but 2016 feels a lot like 2008. Change we can believe in-Barack Hussein Obama's famous campaign slogan. Amama Mbabazi has also latched onto the change agenda but has added the dimension of an rather extensive intelligence based campaign strategy. He argues that the bulk of the NRM party is on his side even if a good number of former colleagues and understudies have found it easier to avoid him. He has also made full use of social media (utube,twitter and Facebook) much like President Obama. The only difference is that he has not at least on the surface managed to create massive registration drives of marginalized youth as well as a collection of volunteers to support and drive his process. The FDC candidate on the other hand continues to control the passions of city dwellers who from the very start would make massive attempts to give him money (notable because we this is a very tight fisted populace). 

So Rebecca Kadaga's reported decision to stand in 2021 is interesting because she seems to guarantee a victory for the president (by claiming that she will stand against him). Which would seem impossible we're he to be defeated in 2016 (it would be very difficult to re-enter the political space). This also means that she may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel after attempts by Miria Obote who took jabs at the presidency knowing quite well that the machinery of her once powerful Uganda People's Congress would be useful in getting her close to the coveted seat. Others with similar chromosomes where Betty Olive Kamya who made Federo the heart of her campaign. And now Maureen Kyalya. 

Kyalya hails from the Busoga region which to be fair is on the up even if it could be better (if compared to the per-independence years). But like Buganda both have monarchies which are barred from major political events and whose monarchies have struggled under the weight of intrigue. She (Kyalya) has used the tribal card very well. She simply rebuked her people and stated that they should cease voting in people who are not Basoga. She expressed sentiments that are very often right under the surface of culturally sensitive tribal-rich African states that could be used anywhere on the continent where one tribe or two have continued to dominate the politics on the proverbial hill. 

So this is interesting because the resistance movement is losing its sense of awe and fear of the first family. This has come about after a series of similar and related events most notable of which was the exist of the blue eyes boy-Amama Mbabazi. 

But another major fissure has arisen in the political space which is the realization for many youth that there is an entrenched older elite that unlike the president has created a massive banyan root structure in the rural political sphere. Kahinda Otafire, Rebecca Kadaga, Amama Mbabazi, Sam Kutesa to name just a few are some of members of parliament that have kept their seats with as much fervor as has the president the bigger seat. A fellow solider took on General Otafire but you know 'Military is as military does'. And maybe these historicals as they have come to be know are teaching us something about the political thought in Uganda. That in some regards one must protect the rural seat and use it to as capital to gain and advance career and rule.