It's been a few days since the Kenyans pulled off a coup d'tat at the Hague. A triumphal entry similar to the one that had taken place only a few days prior (in Uganda) then followed in which a sizable group of Kenyans met the head of state as he arrived back into the country.
As the Ugandan media was trying to deal with an apparent rift between two major players in the so called resistance movement (so called because the history of resistance movement in my view is often fraught with much less pomp and circumstance-which is why it is probably preferable to refer to it as a revolutionary movement).
Those with a keener eye and better memory referred to the return of the Colonel...to Uganda which back in the day was met with a mammoth crowd as well as that of popular TV personality who had made a name for himself in a season of Big Brother.
Even if some called this an amazing feat of mobilization, there is great risk of placing Big Hat under the same category as his former Colonel and the Big Brother Star. Apart from the free fuel...and the chance to see a star or two, we can speak of a power vacuum that existed and that necessitated an absence of one leader for a certain aspect of the rift to be dealt with.
It is important to note that we are now speaking of a broader East African Politic in which different parts of the opposition and civil society are making use of each others creativity by acts of replication.
And so the triumphal march of one is imitated by another (politics) and the use of hogs in parliament, and coffins (Kenya) is dubbed by another (civil society in Uganda). The force with which both protests are met is matched as the enforcement arm of the judiciary responds with rapidity and continues to spend millions towards equipment.
In an interview or appearance on the radio, TMJ or the man some of you choose to refer to as motor mouth, makes a reference to the value of what I call the emotions of the masses. In this reference he is basically saying that it serves you well to milk the masses of their mercy especially when you find yourself in trouble.
This is what some experts refer to in the ICC case...at least in reference to the head of state. It is a little too late to apply the same to our counterparts in Khartoum and would prove rather risky for him to attempt to pull this off.
We are now left to wonder if the right decisions have been made. A long prison sentence is bearable in as far as it allows you to live to fight another day (albeit behind bars). I do not see the international criminal court assenting to hanging as a means of justice but these are possibilities in many of our countries and that is if natural African justice is not allowed to come into play.
None of the our major players have been in power long enough to claim the right to a collapse of their nations a la Libya, Egypt and Iraq.
Put this together and I see a rise in Radicalization of the youth. You can only watch for so long before you become affected by what you see and act on it. At the core of this group will be the Fourth Estate and an exhausted civil society.
You can see aspects of this in Uganda whose opposition has played it cool for long but is beginning to experience an exhaustion.
The youth will begin to realize that they do it stand a chance against the machinery of the state and a manipulated legislative and judicial arm.
In some regards you will find a nameless faceless group with absolutely no links to power and it's trapping but with a realization that they have a stake in the governance of their nations. I they are unable to force their governments into exhaustion but their demands and drive the bureaucracy to a halt. They will begin to think about creative ways to turn their plowshares into swords. This is as we all know a largely agrarian economy.