Opposition 2.0

The accolades that big hat has managed to accumulate through the years are numerous and varied.
Some say that one of his biggest achievements has been in managing to fund a revolution movement entirely with the populace-no simple task.

A few weeks ago i stumbled across an interesting description of a change in focus. It involves a move from fighting bush wars to instead a battle for service delivery.

In the past i have lamented about the challenges of peacetime and the complexities of urban warfare, many have come up with innovative strategies that have been used to engage ruling governments.

I also expressed concern about how open revolutions were easier to squash precisely because they were exposed. And that the opposite was much more difficult because this type often forced your foes to think and plan and act clandestinely.

I think that at the heart of these strategies is the issue of disruption. Even if we often laud peaceful protest as a necessity in democracy it also inevitably leads to some agitation. The protester and activist often work with the press to help highlight some problem and if possible get access to a neat little spot on prime time.

Since we are going to assume that the populace comes first, then our battle must be to ensure that they have their needs met and that services they pay for and have earned are un-interrupted.

So when you think about Opposition 2.0 pay close attention to activity that attempts to stop the flow of business, health and security. These will probably be manifestations of fresh expressions of an opposition that must contend with an inability to wage conventional warfare.    

Nigeria gets her groove back: Reconstruction has a Rethink

In Uganda we are dealing with 20 plus years of an insurgency in the North whose effects are now being experienced regionally.
We have had some help from the Americans (from of their elite military units) and am sure the military establishment here has gained a lot.

I guess my interest piqued after hearing reports about the renewed search for J.K. (Of Northern Uganda fame) and while i am glad that we are receiving 'help', i fear that the help has been masked by shame and has caused an opening of doors to foreign military elements and intelligence officials who would never have been allowed into a country like Nigeria. All of this while Nigeria is reporting tremendous progress and growth.

The bottom line is that in Uganda and Central Africa, Somalia, and other dense forested areas foreign military teams are still rather disabled and will use this opportunity to benefit themselves.   

So while we lament about government's seeming inaction in Nigeria...and rightly so, we must not forget that our American friends are still yet to deal with their own challenges in a industry that brings in Billions of Dollars and does a little bit more than just abduct young girls.

So we are in a bit of a dilemma. Our regions and countries have become spots of contention for turf wars and we have become attractive positions for proxy wars.


We are a little different from the Nigerians in our approach in that, we have also attempted to drive many reconstruction efforts in the Northern Area of Uganda. My suggestion for the Nigerian government is that they use the Ugandan model in their battles with Boko Haram. I am not suggesting that we can teach the Nigerian military much of anything. Heck we send many of our generals to military schools in Nigeria. What i think we can help demonstrate is the value of our reconstruction efforts and how in some sense they have helped ease the burdens on our northern brothers. 

The Nigerian have an interesting system that allows for a shift in authority between the predominantly Muslim North and the Largely Christian South. It is a rotation of sorts which allows for a delicate balance to be maintain between the two major religious groups.

I think that there must be a greater push to develop the North of Nigeria and to think about fresh terms if the Executive is for some reason cut short (as was the case the previous government). As i have also suggested before, Educational Reform is not too much to ask for given the rate of unemployment and the reported level of corruption. I think certain aspects of this form of negotiation would also help pull the idealogical rag from underneath the feet of the Boko Haram.

Anything short of this threatens to result in a rise in copy cat crimes fueled by the attention this group has received from the media even after a seeming lull in revolt and response from the Ogoni tribe and the much earlier Biafra group.

Advice-Please be careful about who you allow into your country. Focus on your current victories and celebrate them...continue to fight for African Solutions to African Problems. Rethink the manner in which you educate your children. Allow your cultural values to supersede those of your religions.

    

Terrorism and the decline of ordinary things

The arrival of a new dawn seems to have ushered in a fresh list of challenges and resulted in a corresponding loss of previously innocent items or terms.

There was a time i thought about getting a pressure cooker to speed up the challenges of cooking then Boston happened.

There was a time i thought nothing about taking a walk with my backpack now i have to think twice and if possible purchase one that displays the contents for all to see.

Then i remember the day when a pair of box cutters made a massive difference when doing little tasks in the office. Well cannot travel with that anymore.

I certainly will not be able to dial emergency while in the U.S without giving thought to the Twin Towers.

Then there is the ominous hood which was a style statement for a while until Zimmerman came into the picture.

Thinking about a casual visit to the U.S embassy? Not me
last time i did that was in 1998. From that time onwards the sound of a banging door or anything close to it would paralyze those who are nursing those memories.

What about the world cup? Not here in Uganda certainly. We have to think about how we spend our leisure and who we spend it with.

A visit to the market? Certainly not in Nigeria or here for that matter.

What about our culturally relevant transport systems in Kenya. Well those are not safe any more either.

Are any of us ever going to look at a journey to the mall as an ordinary event? I am not!

Subtleties of the Street Protests

There are certain groups in Uganda which are pushing for reform in the political space. Some have watched Egypt and Tunisia and attempted to draw lessons from these events. It will be difficult to replicate the spontaneity of many of those protests and to maintain the pace for change. The confrontation has two sides. Government and Opposition Government and its response: Public Spaces In Uganda we watched as our Tahrir square was cordoned off. It sits strategically at the heart of the city and in proximity to the courts of law. It is rather small and cannot accommodate a large populace. But it is still a significant space and is for now a no go area. Public Gatherings In addition to this, a law was put in place to stifle freedom and gatherings. Even if enforcement will be hard, this law is designed to prevent groups of people gathering together without the knowledge of the authorities. Media Maybe our neighbors in Kenya had similar fears when they attempted to restrict media freedoms by creating stiff penalties for their media houses and media personalities. Uganda had faced similar threats and it became common to encounter the ominous disclaimer (the views expressed on this radio station are not...). NGOs Our Civil Society Organization which were beginning to flex, also found themselves cornered like their Egyptian and Russian counterparts whose loyalty to the state was questioned. In Uganda though, there was a change of guard (in preference for a military man-Gen. Aronda Nyakairima-who replaced Hillary Onek in the Internal Affairs Ministry). Even if parliament put up a stiff fight against his selection (questioning the general's ability to hold both military position and ministry or cabinet post). The Opposition and its response A Change of Tactics We have heard a lot more talk regarding activism. As a result the opposition came up with Walk to Work Campaigns (which many ordinary people do everyday sans fanfare). The University as Open Ground In addition to this we have seen the politicization of learning areas. This is tragic because the quality of our education has suffered. One almost has to watch the Guild elections with as much interest as parliamentary elections. The students nursing political ambitions have also seen their universities as key entry points into politics. Entry into Media Activism is a useful way of getting the message across but the goal of a lot of these activities has been to capture the attention of key people and to find access to the front pages. Access to Finance Access to finance has been restricted to the ruling party and has in some way affected the 'discussion'. Shifting alliances are based on the desire to make a quick buck which makes sense given some of the frustrations in the economy. Conclusions Maybe the government has proven to be victorious. But what it must deal with is the challenge that will arise with dealing with an invisible Tahrir sqaure! The battle for control is on in the police and and there have been attempts to win the support of the people (even if this is what crowds do). Heroes have emerged where land ownership issues have arisen. What you have is pretty much the same circumstances without the square but with shifting loyalties among generals and other leaders. In addition to there has been a fallout amongst key business groups like the Taxi owners and operators and Boda Bodas as well as Traders.

Machiavelli On Crime and Politics

In this previous post we had a synopsis with a list of several personalities that were used in the structure of the book and my corresponding projections of the key characteristics or thoughts that they demonstrate on leadership.

http://intas8n.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-return-of-machiavelli-politics-of.html

There are two of importance which fall under the category of crime but which must be separated on the role that crime plays in politics.

1. The use of political control using crime.
5. The use of political power through crime.

The first and fifth points are both about crime but need to be separated. The first involves the rise or creation of political space despite crime. As in the case of Scripture, the realization that poverty is always going to be part of life and the need therefore to live despite this ("the poor you will always have with you!"). The second refers to a marriage between crime and politics and the possible creation of counter cultures to exist alongside systems that are perceived as flawed.

In the former the politician taps into the need for security in his populace and promises to make the city safe for them as a result. While he seems genuine in his intentions, what varies is the degree of crime and the level at which the Judiciary can be utilized or manipulated to suit his needs. He controls the system while being a part of it. He has learned the language and the rhetoric that goes with governance.

The latter does the same except because he is not part of the system. He uses crime to manipulate the system and to extract monies in exchange for safety. Because his system is flawed he manages to create business which can be used to create parallel economies and which can keep loyalties within the system. As a result he can promise results and pull back his troops at the same time. Certain frustrations in some countries where guilty men are set free and examples of the latter where the politician is inseparable for a crime ridden system. A key characteristic of these systems is a rise in Mob Justice.

A police force has database and a list of felons and their finger prints. Once a crime is committed they simply access this database for possible culprits. Once in while, certain national needs will arise which will require certain citizens with certain 'skills' and the likelihood of pardons. The question whether rehabilitation really takes place and if change is really possible then arises.